20160211-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2016.2.11_16页_700kb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service (ERS) Feed Outlook Report - FDS-16b, February 11, 2016

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2015/16 marketing year, focusing on corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. It outlines supply, use, and price forecasts, along with export and import trends.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

Export Prospects: U.S. corn exports for 2015/16 are reduced by 50 million bushels to 1,650 million bushels due to increased competition from South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina.
Ending Stocks: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised by 35 million bushels to 1,837 million bushels, the highest in 10 years.
Industrial Use: Corn use for ethanol is projected to increase by 25 million bushels to 5,225 million bushels, driven by higher gasoline use forecasts.
Price Forecast: The projected season-average price midpoint remains at $3.60 per bushel, with a narrowed range of $3.35 to $3.85 per bushel.

U.S. Feed and Residual Use

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains and wheat remain unchanged.
Total feed and residual use for the September-August marketing year is forecast at 145.2 million metric tons, up 1.74 million tons from 2014/15.
First quarter feed and residual use is forecast 0.5 million tons below that of 2014/15.

U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU)

GCAUs are projected at 93.73 million units, up 1.16 million from the revised 2014/15 estimate.
Feed and residual per GCAU is projected at 1.55 tons, unchanged from last month and 2014/15.

U.S. Supply Side Changes

Corn imports are raised by 10 million bushels to 50 million bushels due to shipments to mid-Atlantic ports.
Barley imports are slightly increased by 1 million bushels based on trade data.
Oats balance sheet and price forecast remain unchanged.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

World coarse grain production for 2015/16 is forecast up by 2.3 million tons to 1,264.3 million tons.
Global coarse grain ending stocks are expected to be the highest since 1987/88 at 245.2 million tons.

Key Countries' Production and Trade

Brazil: Corn production is raised to 84.0 million tons due to increased area, with record corn exports expected. However, the country's corn production is still projected to decline slightly from the previous year.
Argentina: Corn production is up 1.4 million tons to 27.0 million tons. Export policies and currency devaluation have boosted corn exports and planting.
South Africa: Corn production is cut by 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million tons due to drought and high temperatures.
EU: Coarse grain production is up 0.3 million tons to 151.0 million tons, mainly due to increased rye area.
Kazakhstan: Coarse grain production is up 0.3 million tons to 3.7 million tons.
Turkey: Corn production is up 0.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons.

Global Corn Use and Trade

World corn use is projected up by 0.9 million tons to 1,261.1 million tons.
World corn trade is expected to reach a record 130.8 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from the previous month.
China: Corn feed and residual use is up 2.0 million tons to 152.0 million tons, driven by a shift from wheat to corn.
Iran, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Tunisia, and Turkey: Corn imports are increased due to production problems or strong domestic demand.

Global Barley Outlook

World barley trade for October-September 2015/16 is up 1.0 million tons to 26.3 million tons.
Barley imports are forecast up 0.5 million tons each for China and Saudi Arabia.
Argentina: Barley area is increased based on winter grain harvest reports.
Kazakhstan: Barley exports are up 0.1 million tons.
Canada: Barley exports are trimmed 0.3 million tons.

Key Information

U.S. Corn Exports: Reduced to 1,650 million bushels due to increased competition from South America.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks: Increased to 1,837 million bushels, the highest in 10 years.
Global Coarse Grain Stocks: Expected to reach the highest level since 1987/88.
Corn for Ethanol: Projected at a record 5,225 million bushels due to increased gasoline use.
Barley Trade: Increased globally, with EU and Argentina leading the way.

Contact and Subscription Information

Tom Capehart (Domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5313
Edward Allen (International): ewallen@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5288
Jennifer Bond (Economist): jkbond@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5326
Verna Daniels (Web Publishing): vblake@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5301
Subscription: Visit http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx to subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications.
Printed Copies: Contact USDA Order Desk at 1-800-363-2068 to purchase printed copies.
Data Access: Access the Feed Grains Database for detailed monthly, quarterly, and annual data.

Additional Resources

Feed Monthly Tables: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds-feed-outlook/
Feed Chart Gallery: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gALLERY.aspx
WASDE: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
Grain Circular: http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/Current/default.asp
World Agricultural Production: [http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap_ arc.asp](http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap_ arc.asp)
Corn Briefing Room: http://ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx

Disclaimer

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities. For more information, contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 or visit http://www.ers.usda.gov.

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