20180412-USDA-Feed_Outlook_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report (FDS-18c, March 12, 2018)

Core Content

This report outlines the projected changes in the supply, use, and prices of major feed grains in the United States and globally for the 2017/18 marketing year. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, trade dynamics, and international demand on the outlook for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats.

Main Views and Key Information

U.S. Corn Outlook

Export Projections: U.S. corn exports for 2017/18 are raised by 175 million bushels to 2,225 million, driven by reduced supplies in Argentina and Brazil, and strong U.S. price competitiveness.
Ethanol Use: Corn for ethanol is increased by 50 million bushels to 5,575 million, contributing to a 225 million bushel increase in total corn use.
Price Impact: The average price received by corn producers is raised by $0.05 to $3.35 per bushel, with the range now $3.15 to $3.55 per bushel.
Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Ending stocks are projected at 2,127 million bushels, a 225 million bushel decrease from the previous month. The stocks-to-use ratio is 14.4, the second-highest since 2005/06.

Domestic Use of Corn

Total Corn Disappearance: Projected at 14,820 million bushels, the highest ever.
Feed and Residual Use: Projected at 148.9 million metric tons, slightly below the previous month’s forecast.
Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Projected at 98.72 million, a small decrease from the previous month.

Sorghum Outlook

Export Projections: U.S. sorghum exports for 2017/18 are reduced by 15 million bushels to 245 million, due to reduced Chinese imports.
Price Range: The average price received by sorghum producers is narrowed to $3.15 per bushel, with no change in the midpoint.
Global Sorghum Production: Global sorghum production is reduced by 1.1 million tons, with Australia and China experiencing significant declines. India sees a slight increase due to improved yields and area.

Barley Outlook

Export Projections: U.S. barley production is unchanged at 3.1 million tons, but exports are projected at 6 million bushels.
Global Barley Production: World barley production is increased by 0.3 million tons, with Kazakhstan showing a notable rise.
Barley Prices and Imports: Barley prices in China are up, and imports are projected higher, while Saudi Arabia sees a reduction.

Oats Outlook

Import Projections: U.S. oats imports are reduced by 10 million bushels to 90 million, due to slower-than-expected imports from Canada.
Supply and Use: Oats supply is projected at 189.7 million bushels, with a 30.6 million bushel decrease from the previous year.
Price Range: The average price received by farmers is narrowed to $2.55 to $2.75 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.65, up $0.59 from the previous year.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

Global Use: Global coarse grain use is projected to rise by 5.8 million tons to a record 1,360.3 million tons.
Corn Use: Global corn use is up, with Brazil and the EU showing increases in feed and residual use.
Sorghum Trade: Global sorghum trade is reduced by 0.7 million tons, primarily due to lower Chinese imports.
China's Feed and Import Changes: China's sorghum imports are down due to an investigation into alleged dumping and subsidization, but corn, barley, and oats use increases to offset this.

Summary of Key Trends

U.S. Corn Exports: Stronger due to reduced global supplies in Argentina and Brazil, and competitive pricing.
Ethanol Demand: Drives higher corn use, especially in the U.S., with Brazil being a major importer despite tariffs.
Global Supply Shifts: Argentina and Brazil see reduced corn and sorghum production, while India and South Africa show increases.
Price Movements: Prices for corn, sorghum, and oats have increased due to reduced supply and strong international demand.
Stocks and Use: Ending stocks for corn and sorghum are lower, reflecting higher use and reduced production in key exporting countries.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Shows percent change in corn supply and use from last month’s forecast.
Figure 2: Monthly average barley prices received by farmers.
Figure 3: Monthly U.S. corn exports.
Figure 4: U.S. fuel ethanol exports.
Figure 5: Monthly corn prices in Central Illinois and Louisiana Gulf.
Figure 6: U.S. sorghum exports.
Figure 7: U.S. sorghum production and use.
Figure 8: U.S. sorghum production and use.
Table A1 and A2: Detail global and foreign production changes for coarse grains, including corn, sorghum, barley, millet, and mixed grain.
Table 1: Quarterly U.S. feed grain supply and disappearance for the 2017/18 marketing year.

Conclusion

The 2017/18 marketing year for U.S. feed grains is characterized by increased corn and sorghum use, reduced global supplies, and higher prices for producers. The U.S. is gaining export market share due to strong price competitiveness and favorable trade conditions, especially in the face of reduced supplies from Argentina and Brazil. Meanwhile, China's demand is shifting towards corn and barley, with sorghum imports declining due to trade investigations. The global coarse grain market is expected to see higher consumption and tighter stocks, driven by weather-related production declines and increased international demand.