20160211-USDA-USDA_rice-outlook_2016.2.11_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-16B, February 11, 2016)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the global and U.S. rice supply, use, and price forecasts for the 2015/16 market year. It also outlines the 2016 trade forecasts and price developments, emphasizing the impact of weather conditions, supply changes, and international demand on the rice market.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Supply and Use

Total U.S. rice supply for 2015/16 is projected at 264.9 million cwt, a 5% decrease from the previous year.
Long-grain supply remains at 180.0 million cwt, down 10% from the previous year.
Combined medium- and short-grain supply is at 83.0 million cwt, up 8% from the previous year, the highest since 1982/83.
Total use is forecast at 223.0 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year.
Domestic and residual use is at 121.0 million cwt, down 7% from the previous year.
Long-grain domestic and residual use is at 88.0 million cwt, down 14% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is at 33.0 million cwt, up 22% from the previous year.

Imports and Exports

U.S. rice imports are forecast at 24.0 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year.
Long-grain imports are at 20.5 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain imports are at 3.5 million cwt, up 1% from the previous year.
U.S. rice exports are forecast at 102.0 million cwt, up 2% from the previous year.
Rough-rice exports are at 35.0 million cwt, up 3% from the previous year.
Milled and brown rice exports (on a milled basis) are at 67.0 million cwt, up 1% from the previous year.
Long-grain milled rice exports are at 473,300 tons, down 7% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain milled rice exports are at 344,800 tons, up 37% from the previous year.

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 41.9 million cwt, down 14% from the previous year.
Long-grain ending stocks are at 23.0 million cwt, down 13% from the previous year.
Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are at 17.0 million cwt, down 16% from the previous year's record high.
Stocks-to-use ratio for 2015/16 is at 18.8%, down from 21.1% the previous year.

Price Forecasts

Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice are projected at $11.00–$11.60 per cwt, a 40-cent drop on the high end and 20-cent drop on the midpoint from the previous forecast.
U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $16.10–$16.90 per cwt, a 70-cent drop on the high end and 50-cent drop on the low end from the previous forecast.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $19.00–$20.00 per cwt, down $1.00 on both ends.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $11.70–$12.30 per cwt, down $2.40 from the previous year's $14.40.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global rice production for 2015/16 is forecast at 469.5 million tons, down 2% from the previous year.
The decline is attributed to weather-related crop damage in Latin America and South/Southeast Asia, particularly due to drought and El Nino effects.
Thailand, Brazil, and Central America saw the largest production reductions.
Kazakhstan had the largest upward revision, with production increasing by 34,000 tons to a record 274,000 tons.

Global Consumption

Global rice consumption is projected at 483.7 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from the previous year.
China is the main driver of the increase in global consumption.
Consumption is expected to decline in Nepal, South Korea, and the United States.

Global Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 89.3 million tons, down 14% from the previous year.
The stocks-to-use ratio is at 18.5%, down from 21.5% and the lowest since 2007/08.

2016 Trade Forecasts

Global trade forecast for 2016 is at 41.6 million tons, down 2% from the previous year.
Thailand and Vietnam saw reduced export forecasts, while Laos had an increase from zero to 75,000 tons.
China remains the largest importer in 2016 at 4.7 million tons, up 4% from the previous year.
Nigeria is the second-largest importer, with imports projected at 2.5 million tons, down 17% from the previous year.

Price Trends

Thailand's export prices for high and medium grades of regular-milled white rice increased by 4% over the past month.
Vietnam's prices remained nearly unchanged.
Thailand's jasmine rice prices increased to $728 per ton, while Vietnam's prices were $20 lower than Thailand's for similar grades.

Key Factors Affecting the Market

Weather conditions (drought, El Nino, flooding) significantly impacted production in key regions.
Carryin levels played a crucial role in shaping supply and use dynamics, especially for medium- and short-grain rice.
Export sales and shipments were influenced by contractual agreements, market demand, and currency fluctuations.
Global supply and demand imbalances contributed to lower ending stocks and tighter price forecasts.