20181213-USDA-Feed_Outlook_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Outlook Summary: 2018/19 Feed and Grain Market Analysis

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the 2018/19 feed and grain market, focusing on U.S. and global supply, use, and trade dynamics. It includes projections for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, along with price trends and export data, highlighting key shifts in production and consumption patterns.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. Feed Grain Supplies and Use

Feed Grain Supplies: Projected at 445.8 million metric tons, a 3.1 million metric ton decrease from the previous year.
Feed Grain Use: Projected at 397.3 million metric tons, 6.3 million metric tons higher than the previous year.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 0.4 million metric tons to 145.2 million.
Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) Use: Decreased by 1.7 million metric tons to 187.2 million, primarily due to lower corn and sorghum use for ethanol.
Exports: Remain unchanged at 64.9 million metric tons.
Ending Stocks: Projected to increase by 1.0 million metric tons to 48.5 million, with a stocks-to-use ratio rising to 11.9 from 14.5 in the previous year.

Ethanol Use and Impact

Corn for Ethanol: Reduced by 50 million bushels to 5,600 million, reflecting a decline in first-quarter grind.
Sorghum for Ethanol: Reduced by 15 million bushels, leading to an increase in sorghum feed and residual use by 15 million bushels.
FSI Use: Reduced by 23 million bushels to 7,080 million.
Total Disappearance: Lowered by 237 million bushels to 15,030 million.

Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU)

GCAU: Projected at 101.9 million, up 3.0 million from the previous year.
Feed and Residual Use per GCAU: Projected at 1.48 tons, down from 1.47 tons in the previous month.

Corn Prices

Projected Price Range: $3.20 to $4.00 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.60.
Season-Average Price: $3.60, $0.24 higher than the previous year's average of $3.36.

Sorghum Outlook

Total Use: Projected at 360.0 million bushels.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 15 million bushels due to reduced ethanol use.
Season-Average Price: Remains at $3.40 per bushel, with a range of $3.00 to $3.80.

Barley and Oats

Barley Supply: Reduced by 5 million bushels to 82.6 million due to lower imports.
Barley Season-Average Price: Lowered by $0.10 to $4.55, with a range of $4.10 to $5.00.
Oats Season-Average Price: Reduced by $0.05 to $2.65, with the low end of the range dropping to $2.90.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

World Coarse Grain Production: Projected slightly higher at 1,373.6 million tons, with a 16.3 million ton increase year-over-year.
Corn Production: Up 23.7 million tons globally, driven by record yields in Ukraine and the EU, partially offset by declines in South Africa and Canada.
Barley Production: Down 3.3 million tons globally, mainly due to lower yields in the EU, Australia, and Canada.
Sorghum Production: Up 1.1 million tons globally, with Mexico showing an increase.
Oats Production: Down 0.7 million tons globally, with Australia leading the decline.

Corn Exports

Ukraine: Becomes the second-largest corn exporter after the U.S., with production up 13% to 35.0 million tons.
Brazil: Exports are up 1.5 million tons to 26.5 million, due to accelerated shipments in the last months of the 2017/18 season.
U.S. Corn Exports: Unchanged at 62.0 million tons, though higher than previous inspections due to exemptions for certain shipments.
U.S. Corn Imports: Reduced by 0.1 million tons due to low outstanding sales.

Barley and Oats Exports

Barley Exports: Global trade down 0.3 million tons to 27.5 million, with Australia and China both seeing reductions.
Oats Exports: Global trade down 0.4 million tons to 2.1 million, with China reducing imports by 0.3 million tons.

Key Trends and Factors

Ukraine's Role: Record corn yields and increased exports are reshaping global corn supply and trade dynamics.
Brazil's Export Surge: Unusual export growth in the final months of the 2017/18 season boosts both local and international trade forecasts.
Ethanol Demand Shifts: Reduced ethanol use in the U.S. has a ripple effect on FSI and total disappearance.
DDGS Exports: Increased by 7.7% to 2,046 million metric tons, driven by rising demand in countries like Mexico and Vietnam for animal feed.
Global Stocks: Ending stocks are projected to rise by 1.1 million tons globally to 335.2 million, with U.S. stocks increasing the most.

Figures and Data Highlights

Figure 1: U.S. corn harvested area and yield remain unchanged.
Figure 2: Corn supply and use percent change from last month's forecast.
Figure 3: U.S. corn utilization.
Figure 4: Monthly U.S. corn exports.
Figure 5: Monthly corn prices in Central Illinois and Louisiana Gulf.
Figure 6: U.S. fuel ethanol exports.
Figure 7: U.S. DDGS exports.
Figure 8a and 8b: Monthly corn and DDGS prices.
Figure 9: U.S. sorghum harvested area and yield.
Figure 10: U.S. sorghum for ethanol use by month.
Figure 11: Monthly yellow no.2 grain sorghum and corn prices for Kansas City.
Figure 12: Share of exports in corn output for major exporters.
Maps A, B, C, D: Visual representations of production, use, and trade changes for various countries.