20151211-USDA-Feed_Outlook_2015.12.11_15页_770kb

Summary of the U.S. Feed Outlook (FDS-15I, December 11, 2015)

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global feed grain market outlook for the 2015/16 marketing year, including projections for supply, use, and prices. It also highlights recent trends in export and import activities, as well as changes in production and ending stocks.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Corn Export Prospects: Projected down by 50 million bushels to 1,750 million bushels due to a very slow pace of shipments in October and November.
• Ethanol Use: Increased by 25 million bushels, driven by recent production trends, partially offsetting the decline in exports.
• Domestic Corn Use: Projected to be 367.8 million metric tons, up slightly from the previous month.
• Ending Stocks: Raised to 49.8 million metric tons, up 2.9 million tons from 2014/15.
• Corn Price Forecast: Unchanged at a midpoint of $3.65 per bushel, with a range of $3.35 to $3.95.
• Sorghum Price Forecast: Reduced by $0.10 per bushel to a midpoint of $3.50, with a range of $3.20 to $3.80.
• Barley Stocks: Increased slightly to 97 million bushels due to reduced exports, with a narrowed price range of $4.90 to $5.50 per bushel.
• Oats: No changes in balance sheet or farm price forecast.

Key International Developments

U.S. Corn Exports

• Total Export Forecast: Reduced by 1.5 million tons to 44.5 million tons (down 50 million bushels to 1,750 million bushels).
• Export Sales: Outstanding sales reached 10.9 million tons in early December, down 25% from the previous year.
• Brazil's Impact: Brazil's strong corn exports in October and November (5.5 million and 4.8 million tons, respectively) have suppressed U.S. export demand.
• Future Outlook: U.S. corn exports are expected to increase in coming months, with shipment pace similar to last year.

U.S. Sorghum Exports

• Export Forecast: Increased slightly to 7.6 million tons for the October-September trade year.
• China Customs Risk: Perceived risk of customs issues in China may limit future sales and shipments.
• Production Adjustments: Argentina's sorghum exports are cut by 0.3 million tons, while Australia's are increased by 0.1 million tons.

Global Coarse Grain Production

• World Production: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 1,268.6 million tons, mainly due to lower U.S. corn production.
• Regional Adjustments:
  • Canada: Increased production to 25.7 million tons, with record corn yields.
  • India: Reduced production to 39.1 million tons, with corn down by 1.5 million tons due to lower area and yields.
  • South Africa: Trimmed corn production by 0.8 million tons due to dryness.
  • Argentina: Sorghum production cut by 0.6 million tons due to reduced planted area.
  • Chile: Coarse grain production reduced by 0.4 million tons, mainly due to lower oat, rye, and barley area.
  • Australia: Coarse grain production down 0.1 million tons, with lower barley yields but favorable sorghum prospects.
  • Uruguay: Barley production reduced due to lower area.
  • EU: Coarse grain production trimmed slightly, with small reductions in oats and rye, partially offset by increases in barley and sorghum.

Global Coarse Grain Use and Stocks

• World Coarse Grain Use: Trimmed by 0.6 million tons to 1,264.9 million tons, nearly the same as 2014/15.
• Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 0.5 million tons to 760.4 million tons, with world food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use up by 1.0 million tons.
• Global Ending Stocks: Reduced slightly by 0.2 million tons to 246.9 million tons, still the largest in 28 years.
• Country-Specific Changes:
  • Brazil: Ending stocks down 1.0 million tons to 9.1 million.
  • EU: Ending stocks down 0.9 million tons to 13.6 million.
  • Canada: Ending stocks up 0.8 million tons to 4.1 million.
  • U.S.: Ending stocks up 0.7 million tons to 1,785 million bushels.
  • Venezuela: Corn stocks up 0.2 million tons.
  • Other Countries: Small increases in stocks for several nations, while Argentina, Australia, and South Africa see reductions.

Data and Updates

• Next Feed Outlook Release: January 14, 2016.
• Final Estimates: USDA will release final estimates for 2015 U.S. feed grain production and December 1, 2015, grain stocks on January 12, 2016.
• Feed Grains Database: A queryable database with monthly, quarterly, and annual data on prices, supply, and use of corn and other feed grains is available.

Additional Resources

• Special Articles:
  • "Boutique Brews, Barley, and the Balance Sheet"
  • "World Corn Use Expands Despite High Prices in 2012/13"
  • "Animal Unit Calculations—First Projections for the 2013/14 Crop Year"
• Subscription and Notification:
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  • RSS feeds: Get started here

Contact Information

• Tom Capehart (Domestic): tCAPEhart@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5313
• Edward Allen (International): ewallen@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5288
• Jennifer Bond: jkbond@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5326
• Verna Daniels: vblake@ers.usda.gov, (202)-694-5301

Conclusion

The U.S. feed grain outlook for 2015/16 shows a slight reduction in exports, driven by weak export performance, while domestic demand, especially for ethanol, has increased. Global coarse grain production and use remain stable, with Brazil and other countries playing a significant role in shaping international trade dynamics. Despite reduced exports, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to rise, and sorghum and barley prices have adjusted due to market conditions and supply changes.