20151118-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_787kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
The document provides an analysis of the regional oil and gas market as of 17 November 2015, including price movements, news headlines, and investment ratings for various companies across Asia, India, Malaysia, and others. It highlights the performance of key crude oil benchmarks, refining activity in Thailand, and the strategic moves of major players in the industry.
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Fell by 2.2% to USD43.57/b, with a -9.4% weekly and -14.8% monthly decline.
- WTI Crude Oil: Dropped by 2.6% to USD40.67/b, showing similar downward trends: -8.0% weekly and -14.8% monthly.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Decreased by 2.0% to USD40.22/barrel, with -7.5% weekly and -14.7% monthly changes.
- China Daqing Spot: Rose by 0.9% to USD38.08/barrel, with -7.4% weekly and -13.6% monthly change.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Declined by 0.6% to USD2.37/MMBtu, with -10.5% monthly change.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased by 0.9% to USD7.58/MMBtu, with 4.1% monthly rise.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Remained stable at USD53.94/barrel, with -10.0% monthly change.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Slightly increased by 0.0% to USD57.37/gallon, with -3.8% monthly change.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Rose by 0.9% to USD230.21/mt, with -6.5% monthly change.
- Gold: Dropped by 1.5% to USD1,069.46/Oz, with -9.2% monthly change.
- USD-CNY: Increased by 0.1% to 6.38, with 0.4% monthly change.
- DJI: Slightly changed by 0.0% to 17,489.50, with 1.6% monthly change.
- S&P 500: Declined by 0.1% to 2,050.44, with 0.9% monthly change.
News Headlines
- Russian Oil Output: Expected to fall by 10 million tonnes in 2017 due to western sanctions affecting funding capabilities.
- Statoil Exiting Alaska: Decided to leave 16 leases and its stake in 50 ConocoPhillips-operated leases in the Chukchi Sea.
- Thai Refiners' Q3 Throughput: Increased due to rising demand and refining margins. Domestic consumption rose 0.56% and exports 13.8%.
- Iran's Siraf Refinery Project: Projected to export more than half of its value-added products to Asia by 2018, with interest from South Korea and Japan.
- Sinopec's Shale Gas Production: Expected to reach 3.5 Bcm in 2015, slightly below its target. The company operates 150 shale gas wells in Chongqing.
Investment Reports
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price (TP): MYR4.35
- Key Points:
- A growth stock with short and long-term catalysts.
- Expected special dividend payout and 1-2 FPSO job wins in the next 12 months.
Malaysia Oil & Gas
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Key Points:
- PETRONAS committed to paying MYR16b in dividends in 2016.
- Cautious outlook and cost prudence indicate no immediate recovery in the domestic industry.
PTT Global Chemical
- Rating: HOLD
- Key Points:
- 3Q15 profit at THB1.2b, down 87% from the previous quarter.
- Weak results lead to a 15% cut in FY15 earnings.
- Maintained at TP62/share, trading at 1.0x PB, but IRPC is preferred due to stronger EPS growth.
Bumi Armada
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price (TP): MYR1.20
- Key Points:
- Unconfirmed report of MISC potentially injecting offshore assets into Bumi Armada.
- Strategic partnership is viewed positively.
- Maintained at MYR1.20 target price.
Valuation Metrics
Asia Oil & Gas Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 17-Nov | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.59 | 4.80 | 251.6 | 81.0 | 25.7 | 44.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 4.99 | 6.00 | 98.5 | 68.4 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.36 | 11.34 | 49.5 | 92.8 | 16.0 | 19.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.27 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 56.8 | 87.00 | 6.9 | 18.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 61.5 | 65.00 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
Asia Oil-Service Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 17-Nov | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.03 | 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 32.4 | 29.1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.64 | 1.90 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 28.6 | 30.7 | 27.3 | 29.0 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.90 | 4.35 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 21.5 | 19.1 | 15.1 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn<br>Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Notes
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG.
- The data is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
