20150826-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_782kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 25 August 2015, including price movements, news headlines, and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand. It also includes a summary of major oil and gas prices and indices, along with valuations for oil-service companies.

Key Market Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 1.2% to USD43.21/b, with a 1-day change of +0.52.
WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 2.8% to USD39.31/b, with a 1-day change of +1.07.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Gained 2.0% to USD43.82/b, with a 1-day change of +0.85.
China Daqing Spot: Increased by 1.7% to USD38.49/b, with a 1-day change of +0.64.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Rose 1.3% to USD2.69/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of +0.04.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased 1.7% to USD7.70/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -0.04.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Rose 0.2% to USD59.97/b, with a 1-day change of +0.12.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Declined 6.2% to USD57.25/b, with a 1-day change of -3.81.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Rose 1.5% to USD208.46/mt, with a 1-day change of +3.09.
Gold: Declined 1.3% to USD1,140.49/Oz, with a 1-day change of -14.62.
USD-CNY: Increased 0.1% to 6.41, with a 1-day change of +0.01.
DJI: Fell 1.3% to 15,666.44, with a 1-day change of -204.91.
S&P 500: Declined 1.4% to 1,867.61, with a 1-day change of -25.60.

Main News Headlines

Oil Rallies After Drop:
- Oil prices rose as much as 3% due to oversold conditions, but remained near six- and-a-half-year lows.
- Brent and WTI both fell over 16% on the month.
- Chinese equities selloff contributed to the global market decline.
China Approves Crude Import Licenses for Two Independent Refineries:
- China's Ministry of Commerce approved the first two licenses for independent refineries.
- The facilities include Dongming Petrochemical (7.5 million mt/year) and Beifang Asphalt Fuel (7 million mt/year).
- This allows refineries to import crude directly without third-party involvement.
Iraq Oil Minister Announces Payment of $9 Billion in Arrears:
- Iraq has paid $9 billion in remaining arrears for 2014 and will pay outstanding fees for 2015 in stages.
- The ministry is working with international firms to reduce costs and link them to oil prices.
Oil Search Eyeing Acquisitions in PNG:
- Oil Search is exploring acquisitions in Papua New Guinea.
- Despite low oil prices, its operations in PNG remain profitable, and it has $1.6 billion in cash and debt facilities.
Oil Search Reports 49% Rise in First Half Profit:
- The company reported a 49% increase in net profit after tax for the first half of 2015, reaching $227.5 million.
- Revenue increased by 69% to $863.8 million, driven by a significant rise in production and sales from the PNG LNG project.
INE Announces Trading Details for China Crude Futures:
- The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) outlined details for China crude futures.
- The crude will have an API gravity of 32.0 and 1.5% sulphur content.
- Trading will be in yuan (CNY), with a 100 barrels/lot and a minimum trading margin of 5%.

Analyst Ratings and Key Information

Analyst Contact Information

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Company Ratings and Performance

China

PetroChina - H (857 HK): Sell, Price: 6.24, Target: 8.30, Mkt Cap: 233.2, 90D T/O: 111.3, PER: 18.2 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 6.1 (2015E), ROE: 4.3%, P/BV: 0.8, Yield: 2.4%
Sinopec - H (386 HK): Hold, Price: 5.04, Target: 7.70, Mkt Cap: 83.5, 90D T/O: 92.1, PER: 14.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 6.0 (2015E), ROE: 5.7%, P/BV: 0.8, Yield: 3.4%
CNOOC LTD (883 HK): Buy, Price: 7.91, Target: 16.80, Mkt Cap: 45.6, 90D T/O: 92.4, PER: 11.5 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 3.6 (2015E), ROE: 6.4%, P/BV: 0.7, Yield: 3.0%

India

ONGC (ONGC IN): NR, Price: 230.7, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 29.9, 90D T/O: 17.7, PER: 8.3 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 4.3 (2015E), ROE: 13.3%, P/BV: 1.1, Yield: 4.3%
Reliance Industries (RIL IN): NR, Price: 848.2, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 41.6, 90D T/O: 60.4, PER: 11.4 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 10.0 (2015E), ROE: 11.2%, P/BV: 1.2, Yield: 1.2%
Cairn India (CAIR IN): Hold, Price: 125.9, Target: 198.00, Mkt Cap: 3.6, 90D T/O: 7.7, PER: 3.5 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 0.8 (2015E), ROE: 11.7%, P/BV: 0.4, Yield: 7.2%
BPCL (BPCL IN): NR, Price: 862.8, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 9.5, 90D T/O: 24.5, PER: 19.9 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 10.6 (2015E), ROE: 15.2%, P/BV: 2.9, Yield: 1.8%
HPCL (HPCL IN): NR, Price: 821.3, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 4.2, 90D T/O: 23.8, PER: 21.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 10.3 (2015E), ROE: 8.8%, P/BV: 1.9, Yield: 2.0%

Japan

INTEX (1605 JT): NR, Price: 1,123, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 13.8, 90D T/O: 59.6, PER: 18.9 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 3.0 (2015E), ROE: 3.2%, P/BV: 0.6, Yield: 1.6%
JAPEX (1662 JT): NR, Price: 3,165, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 1.5, 90D T/O: 9.2, PER: 5.2 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 4.6 (2015E), ROE: 7.7%, P/BV: 0.4, Yield: 1.6%
JX Holding (5020 JT): NR, Price: 431, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 9.0, 90D T/O: 51.4, PER: N/A (2015E), EV/EBITDA: -249.3 (2015E), ROE: 3.2%, P/BV: 0.6, Yield: 3.8%
Showa Shell (5002 JT): NR, Price: 968, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 3.1, 90D T/O: 18.0, PER: 14.1 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 7.5 (2015E), ROE: 1.3%, P/BV: 1.3, Yield: 3.9%
TonenGeneral (5012 JT): NR, Price: 1,119, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 5.3, 90D T/O: 17.9, PER: 22.1 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 11.4 (2015E), ROE: 5.6%, P/BV: 1.5, Yield: 3.4%
Idemitsu (5019 JT): NR, Price: 1,918, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 2.6, 90D T/O: 14.7, PER: N/A (2015E), EV/EBITDA: -32.7 (2015E), ROE: 7.2%, P/BV: 0.5, Yield: 2.6%
Cosmo (5007 JT): NR, Price: 174, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 1.2, 90D T/O: 6.6, PER: N/A (2015E), EV/EBITDA: -179.6 (2015E), ROE: 10.0%, P/BV: 0.9, Yield: 0.0%

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia (GMB MK): Buy, Price: 2.02, Target: 2.65, Mkt Cap: 0.6, 90D T/O: 0.2, PER: 21.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 11.6 (2015E), ROE: 12.2%, P/BV: 2.6, Yield: 4.8%
Petronas Gas (PTG MK): Hold, Price: 20.80, Target: 24.00, Mkt Cap: 9.8, 90D T/O: 6.1, PER: 22.8 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 13.7 (2015E), ROE: 16.7%, P/BV: 3.7, Yield: 3.1%

Philippines

Petron Corp (PCOR PM): Buy, Price: 7.96, Target: 11.25, Mkt Cap: 1.6, 90D T/O: 0.6, PER: 18.2 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 8.9 (2015E), ROE: 4.4%, P/BV: 0.8, Yield: 0.6%
Phoenix Petro (PNX PM): Buy, Price: 3.17, Target: 4.75, Mkt Cap: 0.1, 90D T/O: 0.6, PER: 5.4 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 7.5 (2015E), ROE: 11.6%, P/BV: 0.6, Yield: 3.2%

Taiwan

Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT): NR, Price: 66.10, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 19.3, 90D T/O: 8.0, PER: 17.4 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 11.1 (2015E), ROE: 13.6%, P/BV: 2.4, Yield: 4.0%

South Korea

S-Oil (010950 KS): NR, Price: 55,800, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 5.3, 90D T/O: 22.6, PER: 7.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 5.6 (2015E), ROE: 17.4%, P/BV: 1.1, Yield: 3.8%
SK Innovation (096770 KS): NR, Price: 92,400, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 7.2, 90D T/O: 42.1, PER: 6.4 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 5.7 (2015E), ROE: 8.7%, P/BV: 0.5, Yield: 3.0%
GS Holdings (078930 KS): NR, Price: 43,900, Target: NR, Mkt Cap: 3.4, 90D T/O: 11.1, PER: 7.7 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 9.3 (2015E), ROE: 8.2%, P/BV: 0.6, Yield: 2.9%

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL (PTTGC TB): Buy, Price: 54.00, Target: 87.00, Mkt Cap: 6.8, 90D T/O: 24.7, PER: 8.8 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 5.9 (2015E), ROE: 11.4%, P/BV: 1.0, Yield: 5.2%
PTT PCL (PTT TB): Buy, Price: 252.0, Target: 395.00, Mkt Cap: 20.2, 90D T/O: 58.4, PER: 8.3 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 6.0 (2015E), ROE: 11.3%, P/BV: 1.0, Yield: 4.7%
Thai Oil PCL (TOP TB): Sell, Price: 47.3, Target: 65.00, Mkt Cap: 2.7, 90D T/O: 8.4, PER: 7.9 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 5.7 (2015E), ROE: 13.8%, P/BV: 1.0, Yield: 5.4%

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas (GAS VN): Buy, Price: 38,800, Target: 92,000, Mkt Cap: 3.3, 90D T/O: 1.0, PER: 8.0 (2015E), EV/EBITDA: 3.5 (2015E), ROE: 25.1%, P/BV: 1.8, Yield: 9.0%

Asian Oil & Gas Average

PER (2015E): 14.7
EV/EBITDA (2015E): 1.8
ROE (2015E): 6.6
P/BV (2015E): 1.0
Yield (2015E): 2.9

Asian Oil & Gas Service Average

PER (2015E): 13.5
EV/EBITDA (2015E): 4.4
ROE (2015E): 7.9
P/BV (2015E): 1.1
Yield (2015E): 3.2

Key Points

Crude oil prices showed mixed movements, with Brent and WTI rising but still near historical lows.
China is opening up its crude import market by approving licenses for independent refineries, which could increase competition.
Oil Search reported strong first-half profits despite weak oil prices, indicating resilience in PNG operations.
The INE is introducing China crude futures, which could enhance transparency and trading in the Chinese market.
Analysts maintain a cautious stance on several companies due to weak market conditions and limited catalysts.
Some companies, like Barakah Offshore Petroleum and Bumi Armada, are recommended as buys due to potential growth and market opportunities.

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