20150923-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_781kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of the regional oil and gas market trends as of 22 September 2015, with a focus on price movements, company-specific reports, and market analysis. It includes key data on crude oil and natural gas prices, analyst ratings, and insights into market performance and potential opportunities.
Key Market Trends
- Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent crude oil remained unchanged at USD48.92/b.
- WTI crude oil fell by 1.3% to USD46.36/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot increased slightly to USD44.72/b.
- China Daqing Spot stayed at USD38.60/b.
- Natural Gas Prices:
- NYMEX Henry Hub was at USD2.58/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR was at USD6.87/MMBtu.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot increased to USD60.34/b.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot rose slightly to USD59.29/b.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot was at USD238.35/mt.
News Highlights
- Brent and WTI Movements:
- Brent showed slight gains, while WTI fell by 2%.
- Pipeline news and positive U.S. inventory data helped limit losses.
- Iran's Export Deal:
- Crude oil prices declined due to progress in Iran's deal to revive exports.
- The deal could increase global supply and affect market sentiment.
- Natural Gas Pipeline Study:
- A study found that cities with pipeline replacement programs had 90% fewer leaks per mile.
- This highlights the importance of infrastructure upgrades in reducing GHG emissions.
- Emerging Market Struggles:
- Big oil importers in emerging markets have not fully benefited from lower oil prices.
- Chinese growth slowdown and export issues limited capitalization.
- India's Oil Product Demand:
- India's oil product demand rose by 7% year-on-year to 3.49 million b/d in August.
- However, it was the lowest in the fiscal year due to monsoon season effects.
Company Reports
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Performance: Resilient business model with defensive qualities.
- Target Price: MYR4.35
- Notes: Likely special dividends from non-O&G divestment; growing in a down cycle.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: HOLD
- Performance: 1HFY16 core earnings positively surprised.
- Target Price: MYR2.00 (down by 29%)
- Notes: Prospects remain weak; potential for a second impairment in 4QFY16.
Petronas Chemicals
- Rating: HOLD
- Performance: ASP declined but was insulated by MYR weakness.
- Target Price: MYR2.00
- Notes: Expected weaker FY17 vs. FY16; dividend yields at mid-3%.
China Oil & Gas
- Rating: Overweight
- Performance: Sinopec and CNOOC upgraded to BUY.
- Notes: PetroChina remains a SELL; Sinopec's downstream optimization is effective in low oil price environment.
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888x8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price 22-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.80 | 4.80 | 232.9 | 101.4 | 25.4 | 44.5 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.15 | 6.00 | 92.5 | 79.4 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.44 | 11.70 | 48.6 | 89.8 | 15.5 | 18.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.23 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 234.5 | NR | 30.5 | 17.7 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 847.9 | NR | 41.7 | 56.4 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 141.7 | 198.00 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 861.4 | NR | 9.5 | 25.4 | 19.8 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 766.6 | NR | 3.9 | 25.0 | 19.6 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 6.92 | 11.25 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 3.35 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 62,500 | NR | 5.9 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.7 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 98,200 | NR | 7.7 | 36.8 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 46,650 | NR | 3.7 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 77.40 | NR | 22.4 | 7.3 | 19.9 | 20.6 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 57.50 | 87.00 | 7.2 | 23.6 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 250.00 | 395.00 | 19.8 | 59.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.00 | 65.00 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.0 | 12.1 | -21.4 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM US | NR | 72.74 | NR | 303.3 | 1,161.8 | 18.7 | 16.9 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 4.0 |
| Chevron | CVX US | NR | 77.25 | NR | 145.4 | 921.5 | 22.8 | 16.8 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | NR | 48.62 | NR | 60.0 | 509.5 | N/A | 43.0 | 8.4 | 6.3 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 6.0 |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 1,536 | NR | 46.3 | 69.3 | 16.5 | 13.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6.0 |
| BP plc | BP / LN | NR | 325.20 | NR | 91.4 | 21,852 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 8.0 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 136.40 | NR | 48.9 | 57.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 5.5 |
| Rosneft Oil | ROSNI Ll | NR | 3.72 | NR | 39.5 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 5.0 | N/A | N/A | 13.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| LUKOil | LKOH RX | NR | 2,226 | NR | 28.7 | 36.9 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 8.2 |
| MOL Hungarian O&G | MOL HB | NR | 12,605 | NR | 4.7 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| PetroleoBrasiliero | PETR3 BZ | NR | 8.35 | NR | 24.9 | 48.5 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 7.3 |
| Total | FP FP | NR | 39.76 | NR | 106.8 | 341.3 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 6.1 |
| Eni S.p.A. | ENI IM | NR | 13.85 | NR | 56.0 | 336.5 | 27.9 | 18.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5.9 |
| Repsol S.A. | REP SM | NR | 10.19 | NR | 15.9 | 212.9 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 9.7 |
| Stateoil ASA | STL NO | NR | 120.40 | NR | 46.3 | 69.3 | 16.5 | 13.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6.0 |
| OMV AG | OMV AV | NR | 21.47 | NR | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP PL | NR | 8.86 | NR | 8.2 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 17.1 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 4.4 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price 22-Sep | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 8.71 | NR | 10.0 | 17.7 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.05 | NR | 0.3 | 0.9 | N/A | 86.4 | 12.0 | 8.8 | -3.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.71 | NR | 0.1 | 0.5 | N/A | 44.9 | -10.4 | 5.8 | -13.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.67 | NR | 0.4 | 0.6 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.63 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | N/A | 24.7 | N/A | N/A | -2.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 0.73 | NR | 0.1 | 0.2 | N/A | 365.0 | 13.4 | 9.2 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 0.72 | NR | 0.1 | 0.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.7 |
| Shengli Pipe | 1080 HK | NR | 0.27 | NR | 0.1 | 0.2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chu Kong Pipe | 1938 HK | NR | 1.39 | NR | 0.2 | 0.2 | N/A | 8.8 | 46.1 | 18.7 | -4.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Hold | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 32.7 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 0.94 | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 27.3 | 24.5 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 1.91 | NR | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 13.5 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Daya Materials | DAYA MK | NR | 0.11 | NR | 0.0 | 0.1 | 7.0 | 6.2 | N/A | N/A | 7.3 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Dayang Enterprise | DEHB MK | NR | 1.83 | NR | 0.4 | 0.2 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 16.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 28.3 | 30.3 | 27.3 | 28.7 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.12 | 1.32 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Muhibbah Engineering | MUHI MK | NR | 2.02 | NR | 0.2 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 13.8 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.53 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 19.1 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | Sell | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 33.8 | 10.0 | 27.6 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Petra Energy | PENB MK | NR | 1.15 | NR | 0.1 | 0.1 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 1.99 | 2.00 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| TH Heavy Engineering | RH MK | NR | 0.21 | NR | 0.1 | 0.3 | N/A | 11.1 | 41.2 | 8.6 | -1.9 | 0.5 | N/A |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.29 | 2.55 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -304.5 | -27.3 | 20.3 | 30.2 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| UZMA | UZMA MK | NR | 2.03 | NR | 0.1 | 0.2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 18.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| WahSeong | WSC MK | Sell | 1.23 | 0.90 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Summary of Key Points
- Crude Oil: Brent was unchanged, while WTI fell by 1.3%. Pipeline issues and inventory data helped limit losses.
- Natural Gas: The market showed mixed performance with some gains and declines, highlighting the impact of infrastructure and geopolitical factors.
- India: Oil product demand rose by 7% year-on-year, but was the lowest in the fiscal year due to monsoon season.
- China: Sinopec and CNOOC were upgraded to BUY, while PetroChina was downgraded to SELL.
- Emerging Markets: Despite lower oil prices, big oil importers in emerging markets have not fully capitalized due to economic slowdowns.
- Analyst Coverage: Analysts from Maybank Kim Eng provide insights and ratings on various companies across Asia, with a focus on growth and performance in a down cycle.
- Valuation Metrics: The document includes various financial metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, and Yield for key companies in the region.
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