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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This summary presents the latest oil and gas market updates and analysis as of 19 November 2015, focusing on key price movements, company performance, and analyst ratings across Asia, India, and other regions. It also includes insights on market valuations and potential market developments.
Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Remained steady at USD44.14/b.
- WTI Crude Oil: Fell by 0.5% to USD40.54/b.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Increased by 1.3% to USD39.91/barrel.
- China Daqing Spot: Remained stable at USD37.44/barrel.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Declined by 3.0% to USD2.28/MMBtu.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Remained unchanged at USD7.58/MMBtu, with ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price used for assessment.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Increased by 0.9% to USD54.06/barrel.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Increased by 0.2% to USD57.41/gallon.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 0.4% to USD228.10/mt.
- Gold: Increased by 1.1% to USD1,082.21/Oz.
- USD-CNY: Remained stable at 6.38.
- DJI: Declined by 0.1% to 17,732.75.
- S&P 500: Declined by 0.1% to 2,081.24.
News Headlines
US Crude and Brent
- US crude fell ahead of the expiry of the front-month contract and due to large inventory builds.
- A weaker dollar and stronger refining margins helped limit the downside in crude prices.
- The dollar fell to a near one-week low, making crude more affordable for non-dollar holders.
Iraqi Oil
- Iraq may increase oil output further in 2016, intensifying competition with OPEC and non-OPEC members.
- Iraq's 2015 output increased by 13%, making it a key driver of OPEC production growth.
- Output growth is expected to be modest in 2016, easing downward pressure on prices.
- Potential increases in OPEC supply from Iran or Libya could further impact prices.
China Teapot Refineries
- Shandong teapot refiners are increasing crude imports before year-end to utilize import quotas.
- Despite a slowdown in domestic sales, refiners are still looking to boost crude imports.
Australia Approves Shell-BG Merger
- The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) approved the Shell-BG merger.
- The merger is unlikely to substantially lessen competition in the natural gas market.
- The ACCC considered the impact of aligning Shell's interest in Arrow Energy with BG's LNG facilities.
Noble Midstream Partners
- Postponed its IPO due to the oil slump.
- The company will continue to evaluate the timing for the offering as market conditions develop.
Analyst Ratings
HK/China
- Yinson Holdings: BUY, with a target price of MYR4.35.
- Bumi Armada: BUY, with a target price of MYR1.20.
- Malaysia Oil & Gas: NEUTRAL, with selective BUYs on Bumi Armada, Dialog, Yinson, and KNM.
India
- PTT Global Chemical: HOLD, with a target price of THB62/share.
- Cairn India: HOLD, with a target price of THB198/share.
- Reliance Industries: NR.
- BPCL: NR.
- HPCL: NR.
Asia
- PetroChina - H: Sell, with a target price of THB4.80/share.
- Sinopec - H: Buy, with a target price of THB6.00/share.
- CNOOC LTD: Buy, with a target price of THB11.34/share.
- New Ocean Energy: Buy, with a target price of THB7.70/share.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL: Buy, with a target price of THB87/share.
- Thai Oil PCL: Sell, with a target price of THB65/share.
Market Valuations
Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (USD) | Target Price (USD) | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.51 | 4.80 | 244.3 | 82.6 | 24.2 | 42.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.06 | 6.00 | 94.4 | 70.1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.33 | 11.34 | 48.0 | 92.9 | 15.5 | 18.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.30 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 56.50 | 87.00 | 7.1 | 19.3 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 11.2 | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 62.50 | 65.00 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 14.2 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| Asian E&P average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.2 | 12.6 | -18.3 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (USD) | Target Price (USD) | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.01 | 1.20 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 29.5 | 26.4 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.62 | 1.90 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 31.8 | 30.7 | 27.3 | 29.0 | 14.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.90 | 4.35 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 21.0 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Key Information
- The oil and gas market is experiencing a slump, with WTI falling and Brent remaining steady.
- Iraq's increased oil output is affecting the global market, and OPEC members may face further pressure.
- Chinese refiners are increasing crude imports despite a slowdown in domestic demand.
- The Shell-BG merger in Australia is approved, with no significant impact on competition.
- Noble Midstream Partners has postponed its IPO due to the oil slump.
- Analyst ratings indicate a mix of BUY, NEUTRAL, and HOLD, with some companies considered undervalued.
- Market valuations are weighted by market capitalization, with PER and EV/EBITDA multiples provided.
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