20150904-Maybank_KERPL-20150904-Maybank_Kim_Eng-Regional_O_il___Gas_rease_Spot_11页_785kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 3 September 2015, including price movements, key news headlines, and analyst reports for various companies in Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. It highlights both the current market conditions and the outlook for the sector, with a focus on earnings, valuations, and future projections.

Key Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Closed at USD50.68/b, up 0.4%.
WTI Crude Oil: Closed at USD46.75/b, up 1.1%.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at USD48.70/b, up 3.1%.
China Daqing Spot: Closed at USD39.12/b, down 9.7%.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at USD7.62/MMBtu, down 9.7%.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Closed at USD60.82/b, down 6.7%.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Closed at USD64.35/b, up 2.6%.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Closed at USD262.51/mt, up 5.7%.
Gold: Closed at USD1,125.46/Oz, down 0.8%.
USD-CNY: Closed at 6.36, up 0.0%.
DJI: Closed at 16,374.76, up 0.1%.
S&P 500: Closed at 1,951.13, up 0.1%.

News Headlines

Oil Prices Volatility: Oil prices rose slightly in volatile trade, influenced by Wall Street gains and US crude inventory levels.
Chinese Investment in Yamal LNG: China's Silk Road Fund and CNPC joined as partners in the Yamal LNG project, with Novatek selling a 9.9% stake.
Saudi Arabia's Crude Price Differentials: Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain or reduce Oct crude OSP differentials for Asian buyers.
Cheniere Energy's Vision for LNG Market: Cheniere Energy's CEO aims to establish a global spot market for LNG, potentially rivaling oil trading.
China's Crude Benchmark Reform: China may launch a global crude futures contract in October to challenge existing benchmarks.
Shell-BG Deal Approved by EU: The EU has approved Shell's acquisition of BG Group, clearing a major hurdle for the merger.

Analyst Reports

China

PetroChina (857 HK):
- Rating: Sell
- Price 2-Sep: 6.03
- Target Price: 8.30
- Market Cap: USD239.3b
- 90D T/O: USD106.0m
- PER (2015E): 17.6
- PER (2016E): 11.2
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 6.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 5.0
- ROE % (2015E): 4.3
- P/BV (2015E): 0.8
- Yield (2015E): 2.5
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK):
- Rating: Hold
- Price 2-Sep: 4.98
- Target Price: 7.70
- Market Cap: USD89.9b
- 90D T/O: USD88.0m
- PER (2015E): 13.8
- PER (2016E): 10.0
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 6.0
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 5.3
- ROE % (2015E): 5.7
- P/BV (2015E): 3.5
- Yield (2015E): 0.0
CNOOC LTD (883 HK):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 8.84
- Target Price: 16.80
- Market Cap: USD50.9b
- 90D T/O: USD95.3m
- PER (2015E): 12.9
- PER (2016E): 8.2
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 3.9
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 3.1
- ROE % (2015E): 6.4
- P/BV (2015E): 2.7
- Yield (2015E): 0.0

India

ONGC (ONGC IN):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 229.2
- Market Cap: USD29.6b
- 90D T/O: USD17.9m
- PER (2015E): 8.2
- PER (2016E): 7.7
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 4.3
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 1.1
- ROE % (2015E): 13.3
- P/BV (2015E): 2.8
- Yield (2015E): 1.8
Reliance Industries (RIL IN):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 853.9
- Market Cap: USD41.8b
- 90D T/O: USD60.6m
- PER (2015E): 11.5
- PER (2016E): 10.7
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 10.3
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 7.1
- ROE % (2015E): 11.2
- P/BV (2015E): 4.3
- Yield (2015E): 1.2
Cairn India (CAIR IN):
- Rating: Hold
- Price 2-Sep: 149.3
- Target Price: 198.00
- Market Cap: USD4.2b
- 90D T/O: USD7.6m
- PER (2015E): 4.1
- PER (2016E): 7.0
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 1.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 2.1
- ROE % (2015E): 10.0
- P/BV (2015E): 6.1
- Yield (2015E): 0.5

Japan

INTEX (1605 JT):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 1,164
- Market Cap: USD14.2b
- 90D T/O: USD59.0m
- PER (2015E): 19.6
- PER (2016E): 25.2
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 3.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 3.7
- ROE % (2015E): 12.0
- P/BV (2015E): 1.0
- Yield (2015E): 4.6
JAPEX (1662 JT):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 3,465
- Market Cap: USD1.6b
- 90D T/O: USD9.1m
- PER (2015E): 5.7
- PER (2016E): 14.1
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 5.0
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 7.8
- ROE % (2015E): 11.2
- P/BV (2015E): 1.3
- Yield (2015E): 1.4
JX Holding (5020 JT):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 446
- Market Cap: USD9.3b
- 90D T/O: USD50.3m
- PER (2015E): N/A
- PER (2016E): 8.4
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): -251.5
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): -15.1
- ROE % (2015E): 0.6
- P/BV (2015E): 3.6
- Yield (2015E): 0.0

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia (GMB MK):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 2.10
- Target Price: 2.65
- Market Cap: USD0.6b
- 90D T/O: USD0.2m
- PER (2015E): 21.8
- PER (2016E): 21.8
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 12.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 11.8
- ROE % (2015E): 12.2
- P/BV (2015E): 2.7
- Yield (2015E): 0.0
Petronas Gas (PTG MK):
- Rating: Hold
- Price 2-Sep: 21.40
- Target Price: 24.00
- Market Cap: USD10.0b
- 90D T/O: USD6.0m
- PER (2015E): 23.4
- PER (2016E): 23.2
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 14.0
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 13.7
- ROE % (2015E): 16.7
- P/BV (2015E): 3.8
- Yield (2015E): 0.0

Philippines

Petron Corp (PCOR PM):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 7.59
- Target Price: 11.25
- Market Cap: USD1.5b
- 90D T/O: USD0.6m
- PER (2015E): 17.3
- PER (2016E): 10.3
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 8.1
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 7.1
- ROE % (2015E): 4.4
- P/BV (2015E): 0.8
- Yield (2015E): 0.7
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines (PNX PM):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 3.25
- Target Price: 4.75
- Market Cap: USD0.1b
- 90D T/O: USD0.1m
- PER (2015E): 5.5
- PER (2016E): 4.9
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 7.6
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 6.9
- ROE % (2015E): 11.6
- P/BV (2015E): 0.6
- Yield (2015E): 3.1

South Korea

S-Oil (010950 KS):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 58,400
- Market Cap: USD5.5b
- 90D T/O: USD21.9m
- PER (2015E): 7.3
- PER (2016E): 8.1
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 5.8
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 6.3
- ROE % (2015E): 17.4
- P/BV (2015E): 1.2
- Yield (2015E): 3.7
SK Innovation (096770 KS):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 97,200
- Market Cap: USD7.5b
- 90D T/O: USD41.2m
- PER (2015E): 6.7
- PER (2016E): 7.6
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 5.8
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 6.5
- ROE % (2015E): 8.7
- P/BV (2015E): 0.6
- Yield (2015E): 2.9
GS Holdings (078930 KS):
- Rating: NR
- Price 2-Sep: 45,400
- Market Cap: USD3.5b
- 90D T/O: USD10.7m
- PER (2015E): 7.9
- PER (2016E): 7.9
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 9.2
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 9.1
- ROE % (2015E): 8.4
- P/BV (2015E): 0.7
- Yield (2015E): 2.8

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL (PTTGC TB):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 57.5
- Target Price: 87.00
- Market Cap: USD7.2b
- 90D T/O: USD25.4m
- PER (2015E): 9.3
- PER (2016E): 8.2
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 6.2
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 5.7
- ROE % (2015E): 11.5
- **P/BV (2015E)****: 1.0
- Yield (2015E): 4.9
PTT PCL (PTT TB):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 264.0
- Target Price: 395.00
- Market Cap: USD21.0b
- 90D T/O: USD60.4m
- PER (2015E): 8.8
- PER (2016E): 7.9
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 14.0
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 13.7
- ROE % (2015E): 11.0
- P/BV (2015E): 1.0
- Yield (2015E): 5.1
Thai Oil PCL (TOP TB):
- Rating: Sell
- Price 2-Sep: 49.5
- Target Price: 65.00
- Market Cap: USD2.8b
- 90D T/O: USD8.4m
- PER (2015E): 8.2
- PER (2016E): 8.8
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 6.0
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 6.0
- ROE % (2015E): 13.7
- P/BV (2015E): 1.1
- Yield (2015E): 5.1

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas (GAS VN):
- Rating: Buy
- Price 2-Sep: 45,700
- Target Price: 92,000
- Market Cap: USD3.8b
- 90D T/O: USD1.1m
- PER (2015E): 10.0
- PER (2016E): 10.7
- EV/EBITDA (2015E): 4.7
- EV/EBITDA (2016E): 4.7
- ROE % (2015E): 23.3
- P/BV (2015E): 2.2
- Yield (2015E): 7.7

Asian Oil & Gas Average

PER (2015E): 14.7
PER (2016E): 11.0
EV/EBITDA (2015E): 1.9
EV/EBITDA (2016E): 5.8
ROE % (2015E): 6.5
P/BV (2015E): 1.0
Yield (2015E): 2.9

Asian Oil-Service Average

PER (2015E): 14.4
PER (2016E): 12.9
EV/EBITDA (2015E): 4.7
EV/EBITDA (2016E): 4.4
ROE % (2015E): 7.8
P/BV (2015E): 1.1
Yield (2015E): 3.0

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong: HK/CHINA, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah: INDIA, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah: INDONESIA, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung: MALAYSIA, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson: PHILIPPINES, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong: SINGAPORE, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai: THAILAND, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen: VIETNAM, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh: VIETNAM, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn