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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region as of 16 September 2015. It includes news headlines, analyst insights, and valuation data for various companies across different countries, such as China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and others. The report also highlights key financial metrics, including price changes, market capitalization, earnings, and valuation multiples.
Main News Headlines
- Crude rallies on large US drawdown: Oil prices rose due to a significant drawdown in US crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
- Oil futures plan fuels up China's ambitions: China aims to establish a new Asian oil benchmark by launching an international crude oil contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).
- OPEC's new medium-term forecasts show higher demand for its oil: OPEC delegates indicate increased demand for their oil, which may lead to a shift in market dynamics.
- India's IOC to spend $7.5 billion on refinery expansions: The Indian Oil Corporation plans to increase refining capacity by investing $7.5 billion over 5-7 years.
- Oil giants 'set for cash flow pain': Moody's reports that integrated oil companies are facing cash flow challenges due to low oil prices and reduced capital expenditure.
Key Financial Data
Crude Oil and Gas Prices
| Commodity | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | 1D Dollar Change | 1D % Change | 1W % Change | 1M % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 49.75 | 2.00 | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| WTI | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 47.15 | 2.56 | 5.7% | 6.8% | 11.2% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 44.70 | 0.18 | 0.4% | -6.8% | -9.4% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 38.60 | -2.04 | -5.0% | -12.5% | -11.1% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 2.66 | -0.07 | -2.5% | 0.3% | -3.9% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKL1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 7.00 | -- | -5.0% | -7.3% | -11.9% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFMI92S Index | USD/bbl. | 59.70 | 1.05 | 1.8% | 0.6% | -4.9% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 59.26 | 0.13 | 0.2% | -6.8% | -4.9% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 243.34 | 5.03 | 2.1% | -1.1% | -6.3% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,119.52 | 14.17 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.37 | 0.00 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,739.95 | 140.10 | 0.8% | 3.0% | -4.6% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,995.31 | 17.22 | 0.9% | 2.7% | -5.1% |
Analyst Ratings
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: HOLD (1HFY16 above; prospects still weak)
- Petronas Chemicals: HOLD (ASP declined but insulated by MYR weakness)
- China Oil & Gas: OVERWEIGHT (Upgrade to Overweight)
- KNM Group: BUY (More RAPID works in the bag)
Company Valuations (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (16-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.83 | 4.80 | 238.5 | 102.8 | 25.6 | 44.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.25 | 6.00 | 92.3 | 83.3 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.68 | 11.70 | 50.0 | 92.9 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.11 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 230.5 | NR | 29.8 | 17.7 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 872.6 | NR | 42.7 | 59.4 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 144.4 | 198.00 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 862.4 | NR | 9.4 | 25.5 | 19.9 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 775.8 | NR | 4.0 | 24.6 | 19.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | Buy | 2.20 | 2.65 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 22.9 | 22.8 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.50 | 24.00 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 23.5 | 23.3 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.15 | 11.25 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 16.3 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.30 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 63,900 | NR | 6.1 | 19.9 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 16.8 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 100,500 | NR | 7.9 | 38.2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 48,750 | NR | 3.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 57.00 | 87.00 | 7.2 | 24.6 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 250.0 | 395.00 | 19.9 | 60.5 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.3 | 65.00 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 13.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.0 | 12.0 | -21.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Asian E&P average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.0 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Summary of Key Points
- Oil Prices: Brent and WTI crude prices rose by 4.2% and 6.8% respectively, driven by a significant US drawdown and Fed rate uncertainty.
- China's Ambitions: China is seeking to increase its influence in global oil pricing through the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.
- OPEC Forecasts: OPEC's new forecasts indicate higher demand for its oil, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics.
- India's Refinery Expansion: IOC plans to invest $7.5 billion in refinery capacity over the next 5-7 years.
- Moody's Outlook: Integrated oil companies face cash flow challenges and are expected to see a contraction in EBITDA.
- Company Ratings: A mix of HOLD, BUY, and SELL ratings are given for various companies in the region, with some showing positive growth prospects and others facing challenges.
- Valuation Metrics: The report provides a range of valuation metrics, including price-to-earnings (PER), enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), and return on equity (ROE), to assess the financial health and performance of companies in the oil and gas sector.
This summary highlights the current market dynamics, key financial data, and analyst insights for the oil and gas sector in the Asia-Pacific region as of 16 September 2015.
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