20170109-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil__Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_394kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of the oil and gas market performance and analysis for the first week of January 2017, highlighting key news headlines, analyst ratings, and market valuations across Asia and other regions. It discusses the impact of OPEC's production cuts, U.S. drilling activity, and developments in the Iranian oil market, alongside investment recommendations and financial metrics for various oil and gas companies.
Main News Headlines
- OPEC Output Cut Boosts Oil Prices: Hedge funds such as Andy Hall's Astenbeck Capital Management LLC and Pierre Andurand's Andurand Capital experienced significant gains, with Hall up 8.1% in December and Andurand 6.8%. The OPEC agreement and commitments from non-OPEC producers led to a rally in oil futures.
- U.S. Drilling Recovery: U.S. drillers added oil rigs for the 10th consecutive week, reaching the highest level since December 2015. This marks the longest weekly streak of adding rigs since 2011 and reflects a recovery from 13-year lows.
- Iran's Oil Tender Strategy: Iran plans to tender its prime oil and gas fields, aiming to attract international bids. This is expected to increase competition but may be affected by potential U.S. policy changes under the new administration.
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sales: The U.S. government announced plans to sell 8 million barrels of light, sweet crude from three SPR sites in January, with deliveries starting as early as February.
Key Investment Reports
- UMW Oil & Gas: Secured a 18-month charter for Naga 7, marking its first rig contract in 2017. This is seen as a positive development, leading to improved earnings forecasts. The target price offers a 27% upside.
- Indorama Ventures: Initiated a BUY rating with a target price of THB40, based on a 9.7x EV/EBITDA multiple. The company is now the world's largest integrated PET producer, with strong growth prospects in the PTA upcycle.
- Singapore Offshore & Marine: Predicted that 2017 may not be an easy year for the sector, despite the OPEC production cut. The sector faces challenges due to asset oversupply and slow utilization improvements.
- Thailand Energy Sector: Advised to be selective, with PTTGC and PTT recommended as strong stocks due to their attractive valuations and fundamentals.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indices (as of 6 Jan 2017)
| Commodity | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | CL1 COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 57.10 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CO1 COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 53.99 | 0.00 | 0.5% | 3.0% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/barrel | 55.01 | 0.00 | 1.9% | 0.07 |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/barrel | 54.10 | 0.00 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 3.29 | 0.00 | 0.0%-11.8%-12.2% | |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/barrel | 65.96 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/gallon | 65.81 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 336.66 | 0.00 | 2.6% | 7.4% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,172.63 | 0.00 | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.92 | 0.00 | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 19,963.80 | 0.00 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 2,276.98 | 0.00 | 1.7% | 0.8% |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
- Jessie Li (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
- Yupapan POLPORNPRASERT (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 6-Jan | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | ROE % 2016E | P/BV (2016E) | Yield (%) 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Hold | 6.04 | 5.71 | 211.8 | 82.7 | 39.9 | 21.6 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.82 | 6.70 | 100.1 | 63.1 | 16.6 | 15.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.95 | 11.74 | 57.3 | 80.9 | 176.9 | 17.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 5.1 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 2.09 | 4.50 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 17.2 | 0.5 | - |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 64.0 | 72.00 | 8.0 | 18.3 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 389.0 | 423.00 | 31.1 | 56.3 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Hold | 70.3 | 73.00 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 17.6 | 1.4 | 5.5 |
Asian Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 6-Jan | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | ROE % 2016E | P/BV (2016E) | Yield (%) 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMW Oil & Gas | UMWOG MK | Buy | 0.92 | 1.16 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -4.8 | -7.5 | nm | 124.0 | -13.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Buy | 1.75 | 2.30 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 10.4 | 58.8 | 8.9 | 11.6 | -6.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.90 | 4.35 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 13.7 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
Key Information and Insights
- OPEC's production cut has driven a positive sentiment rally in the oil market.
- U.S. drilling activity has been increasing, with a 10-week streak of adding rigs.
- Iran is actively tendering its oil and gas fields, which could attract international interest.
- The U.S. plans to sell 8 million barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Investment recommendations include buying UMWOG and Indorama Ventures, while being cautious in the Singapore and Thailand oil service sectors.
- Valuation metrics such as EV/EBITDA and PER are used to evaluate companies, with some showing strong growth potential and others facing challenges.
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