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Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Asia property market performance and key updates for the week, focusing on residential and commercial sectors across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It includes market data, performance metrics, upcoming events, and analyst notes.

Key News and Updates

China

• Transaction Volume: Vol dropped 90% week-over-week and 93% year-over-year, but 15 cities saw a 6.9% increase in total transaction volume compared to 2015 CNY.
• Inventory: Inventory decreased 0.3% week-over-week, with 11 months of inventory as of the end of 2015.
• Home Loans: Home loans in China rose 23.3% year-over-year in 2015, totaling Rmb13.1tn by end-2015.
• Leasing Market: Shanghai's apartment rental prices have increased for 16 consecutive months, with an average increase of nearly 20% year-over-year in 2015.

Hong Kong

• New Home Sales: 19 new homes were sold in the CNY week ending Feb 14, the lowest in 4 years.
• Secondary Market Prices: Secondary market prices fell 0.7% week-over-week as of Feb 7.
• Visitor Arrivals: Visitor arrivals from the Mainland dropped 11.65% year-over-year to about 744,000 in the first 6 days of the Chinese New Year.
• Construction Activity: 11,280 private housing units were completed in 2015, a 28% drop year-over-year.
• Investigation: Jinmao Investments confirmed that its chairman is under investigation for "suspected serious disciplinary violations."

Japan

• JREIT Loan Rate: GLP JREIT entered into an IR swap with Nomura Securities, fixing the interest rate at -0.009% for a ¥5.3bn loan, the first under the negative rate regime.
• Vacancy Rate: Tokyo central 5 wards saw a vacancy rate of 4.01%, a 12-month improvement. Rent per tsubo increased 0.55% month-over-month.
• Condo Sales: Mitsubishi Estate will start selling high-class condos at Park House Chiyoda Kojimachi with prices up to ¥7mn per tsubo.

India

• Private Equity Investments: Private equity investments in the property sector increased 72% year-over-year to $4bn in 2015, the highest since 2008, led by the residential sector.
• New Home Sales: 322 new private homes were sold in Jan 2016, a 14% drop year-over-year and 16% month-over-month.

Singapore

• New Home Sales: 322 new private homes were sold in Jan 2016, a 14% drop year-over-year and 16% month-over-month.
• Frasers Centrepoint: Advised that the company may consider listing its Australian office and industrial properties in a REIT on the Singapore Exchange.

Upcoming Events

• 18-Feb: CPI, PPI (China); Trade balance, exports, imports (Japan); GDP (Singapore)
• 23-Feb: Hong Kong NWD 1H FY16 results; Yuexiu REIT FY15 results
• 24-Feb: Sino Land 1H FY16 results
• 25-Feb: Champion REIT FY15 results
• 26-Feb: SHKP 1H FY16 results

Market Performance

Residential Market Snapshot

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Key Research and Ratings

Top and Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Top Performers:

• Summarone: +7% (1-wk), +1% (1-mo)
• Quira Development: +4% (1-wk), -5% (1-mo)
• Poly Real Estate Group: +3% (1-wk), -17% (1-mo)
• Overseas Chinese Town: +3% (1-wk), -9% (1-mo)
• Shanghai Shimao: +2% (1-wk), -16% (1-mo)

Bottom Performers:

• Housing Dev. & Inas.: -18% (1-wk), -27% (1-mo)
• DLF: -18% (1-wk), -26% (1-mo)
• Mitsui Fudosan: -15% (1-wk), -19% (1-mo)
• Tokyo Fudosan: -14% (1-wk), -15% (1-mo)
• Nomura Real Estate HD: -14% (1-wk), -14% (1-mo)

Largest Upsides/Downsides for Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

Buy-Rated Stocks:

• Shimao: +151%
• Tianjin Watermen: +139%
• Dalian Wanda Comm Prop: +106%
• Mitsui Fudosan: +96%
• China Overseas Land: +86%

Self-Rated Stocks:

• Gemdata Corp: -35%
• Bumi Sperong: -28%
• Evergunde: -9%
• Champion REIT: -1%

Buy-Related Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn):

• Aqua: +130%
• Prestige Estate: +96%
• Soboh Developers: +95%
• Sunac: +85%
• Oberoi Realty: +84%
• Process of 12-Feb: +10%

Self-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn):

• Ciudad Development: -25%
• Far East Hospitality Trust: -8%
• Godinji Properties: -8%
• Jinnao Investments: -5%

Analysts and Contact Information

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921; Scofield Chi (65) 6654 5188
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046; Aditya Gupta (212) 934-7434
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485; Ankur Vohra (65) 6654 5185; Jing Ren Tan (65) 6654 5176

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.