20230813-国信期货-远月合约仍存下跌空间_逢高可逐步布局空单_18页_773kb

2023/08/13 Pure Alkali Market Analysis Summary

Compiled by Research Consulting Department

Market Overview

Pure alkali现货market prices remained stable in recent weeks, with the主力合约 showing oscillations due to supply-demand dynamics.

Fundamental Analysis

• Supply: Alkali production maintained high profit margins (>300 yuan/ton), with minor increases in factory utilization but key players like Zhongying Energy and Jinshan Chemical facing operational constraints. Newly added capacity is slower than expected, supporting current tightness.

• Demand: Heavy alkali demand remains steady, supported by stable glass industry indicators like reduced inventory and higher profits. Light alkali demand is pressured by low industry activity and declining liquid alkali prices. Overall demand is balanced in the short term.

• Inventory: Total domestic alkali inventory decreased by 14% week-over-week, with significant reduction in heavy alkali stocks (-37%), indicating tight supply-demand conditions.

Future Outlook

Supply-side factors are expected to keep utilization stable, but risks of faster new plant releases loom. Demand is likely to remain stable. Far-month futures face downward pressure due to low-cost production capacity and potential coal price declines, potentially hitting 1300-1400 yuan/ton support levels. Short-term, the market could see minor consolidation.

Trading Strategy

Recommend initiating short positions on higher-than-fair levels for far-dated contracts, as the thesis supports controlled bearish positioning.

Risk Factors

Upward risks include accelerated commissioning of new capacity, which could overwhelm current outlook projections. Downside risks are limited by tight supply in the near term.