20150916-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock market performance, focusing on key indices, sector trends, and individual stock analyses. It also includes insights into external market conditions, valuations, and economic data relevant to investors.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 21,455, down 0.5% from the previous day, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 9.1%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 9,704, down 0.3%, with a YTD decline of 19.0%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,005, up 3.5%, with a YTD gain of 7.1%.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,580, up 5.0%, with a YTD gain of 11.7%.
• DJIA: Closed at 16,600, up 1.4%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 1,978, up 1.3%.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 4,861, up 1.1%.
• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,138, up 0.9%.
• DAX: Closed at 10,188, up 0.6%.
• CAC 40: Closed at 4,569, up 1.1%.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 18,175, up 0.8%.
• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 8,260, down 0.6%, with a YTD decline of 11.3%.

Market Highlights

• U.S. Retail Sales: Increased by 0.2% in August, below the revised 0.7% growth in July.
• U.S. Industrial Production: Dropped by 0.4%, worse than the expected 0.2% dip.
• U.S. Equities: Rebounded, but turnover was not strong.
• FOMC Meeting: Expected to start tonight, with potential implications for Hong Kong equities.
• China's Stock Index Futures: Turnover declined significantly, possibly due to a lack of hedging instruments, leading to a sell-off in the A-share market.
• Great Wall Motor (2333.HK): Recorded an 18.5% increase in August sales, with a FY1 Forward P/E of 5.9x, significantly lower than its peers.
• iPhone 6s Sales: Expected to break the previous year's sales record, with Cowell E (1415.HK) surging 7.8%.
• Property Stocks: Declined due to anticipation of interest rate-sensitive impacts.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors

• Airline: 3.2% gain
• Gaming: 1.8% gain
• Logistics: 0.7% gain
• Coal: 0.4% gain
• Handset and related accessories: 0.4% gain
• Automobile: 0.1% gain

Worst Performing Sectors

• Consumer Staples: -0.2% decline
• Chinese Banks: -0.3% decline
• Aluminum: -0.3% decline
• Marine: -0.4% decline
• Local Banks: -0.5% decline
• HK Telecoms: -0.5% decline
• Infrastructure: -0.5% decline
• Oil-related: -0.5% decline
• Chinese Insurers: -0.6% decline

Valuation Metrics

Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index: FY15E P/E of 10.6, long-term average of 11.3, deviation of -5.4%, FY1 EPS growth of -13.2%, FY2 EPS growth of 7.5%
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 7.2, long-term average of 8.5, deviation of -15.3%, FY1 EPS growth of -4.3%, FY2 EPS growth of 6.8%
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 12.7, long-term average of 11.0, deviation of +15.3%, FY1 EPS growth of +17.6%, FY2 EPS growth of +12.5%
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 16.7, long-term average of 14.7, deviation of +13.4%, FY1 EPS growth of +4.5%, FY2 EPS growth of +10.3%

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

• Best Performers:

  • MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 15.8% gain
  • COOLPAD (2369.HK): 6.0% gain
  • AIR CHINA LTD-H (753.HK): 5.3% gain
  • CHINA EAST AIR-H (670.HK): 4.4% gain
  • MAOYE INTL HLDGS (848.HK): 4.3% gain

• Worst Performers:

  • ENN ENERGY (2688.HK): -7.5% decline
  • SHANDONG WEIG-H (1066.HK): -7.4% decline
  • CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): -7.2% decline
  • CHINA LILANG LTD (1234.HK): -7.0% decline
  • SINOTRANS LTD-H (598.HK): -6.6% decline

HSCI Volume Filter

• CHINA SHENGMU OR (1432.HK): 490.1% increase in volume
• TIANNENG POWER (819.HK): 241.9% increase in volume
• MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 201.0% increase in volume
• K WAH INTL HLDGS (173.HK): 137.0% increase in volume
• BELLE INTL (1880.HK): 129.6% increase in volume

Most Short Sold Stocks

• KERRY PPT (683.HK): 0.5% of total short sell turnover
• CHINA AGRI-INDUS (606.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
• CHINA ZHENGTONG (1728.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
• LI & FUNG LTD (494.HK): 0.6% of total short sell turnover
• CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
• CHINA LILANG LTD (1234.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
• SINOTRANS LTD-H (598.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
• ENN ENERGY (2688.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover

External Market Conditions

• Fed Rate Decision Speculation: Increased due to weak U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures.
• U.S. Crude Oil Futures: Closed at $44.59 per barrel, up $0.59.
• Gold Futures: Closed at $1,103.3 per ounce, down $4.6.
• ADR Performance: ADRs rose, effectively pushing HSI up 184 points.

Economic Data and Event Calendar

• U.S. Retail Sales: 0.2% increase in August, below July's revised 0.7%.
• U.S. Industrial Production: -0.4% in August, below expectations.
• FOMC Meeting: Scheduled to begin tonight, with potential implications for Hong Kong equities.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping's Meeting: Proposed a "negative list" for market entry, but market reaction has been tepid.

Today's Top Picks

• Sinotrans (598.HK): Target price HK$4.40, stop-loss at HK$3.20, due to rising expectations from asset restructuring.
• Mascotte Hold (136.HK): Target price HK$0.425, stop-loss at HK$0.325, due to bullish MACD signals and increased turnover.

Key Insights and Investment Opportunities

• Great Wall Motor (2333.HK): Strong August sales performance and low P/E ratio make it an attractive investment.
• Cowell E (1415.HK): Surged 7.8% despite the sector's overall trend, indicating potential for growth.
• Sector Trends: Airlines and gaming sectors showed positive performance, while consumer staples and banks faced declines.
• ETFs: Top 20 most traded ETFs include various indices and funds, with varying price movements and performance trends.

Summary of Key Metrics

• Interest Rates: U.S. 2-year Treasury yield at 0.7944%, 10-year at 2.2670%, 30-year at 3.0485%.
• Exchange Rates: USD/HKD at 7.7501, EUR/USD at 1.1277, USD/JPY at 120.31, etc.
• Precious Metals and Commodities: Comex Gold at $1,103.7, Comex Silver at $14.35, Nymex WTI Crude at $44.99, etc.
• A-share Premium to H-share: Highlights significant premiums for various companies, indicating potential for A-share investment.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets experienced mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others faced downward pressure. The FOMC meeting and Chinese policy changes are key factors influencing market sentiment. Great Wall Motor and Sinotrans are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, while the A-share premium to H-share remains a notable aspect for investors. The document provides a detailed view of market dynamics, aiding in informed investment decisions.