20151126-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global market conditions as of 25 November 2015, focusing on key indices, individual stocks, sector performance, valuations, and market data such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Indices and Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 22,498
Daily Change: -0.4%
YTD Change: -4.7%
Turnover: HK$19.3bn
Volume Change: 30.71%
Forward P/E (FY15E): 11.3x
Earnings Growth (FY1): -12.6%
Earnings Growth (FY2): 5.3%

HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)

Close: 10,128
Daily Change: -0.3%
YTD Change: -15.5%
Turnover: HK$12.1bn
Volume Change: 23.02%
Forward P/E (FY15E): 7.6x
Earnings Growth (FY1): -1.9%
Earnings Growth (FY2): 4.1%

Shanghai Composite Index (Shanghai Comp)

Close: 3,648
Daily Change: +0.9%
YTD Change: +12.8%
Turnover: HK$64.8bn
Forward P/E (FY15E): 15.6x
Earnings Growth (FY1): +22.7%
Earnings Growth (FY2): +10.6%

S&P 500

Close: 2,089
Daily Change: -0.0%
YTD Change: +1.5%
Forward P/E (FY15E): 17.7x
Earnings Growth (FY1): +5.6%
Earnings Growth (FY2): +9.0%

Stock in Focus

ZTE-H (763.HK)

Last Close: HK$18.22
Entry: HK$17.60
Target: HK$20.00
Stop-loss: HK$16.80
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 29.8% / -3.5% / 31.8% / 16.5%
Market Cap: HK$91.57bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 5.41mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 16.9x

Key Highlights:

ZTE Corporation's microelectronics business is gaining momentum, supported by a RMB2.4bn investment from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund.
ZTE Microelectronics contributed 17% of ZTE's profit in H1 2015 and is expected to drive growth.
The company is benefiting from Chinese policies like "Broadband China" and "Internet Plus," and its overseas revenue is forecast to grow.
The stock is considered undervalued with a forward P/E of 16.9x, below its 2.5-year average of 18.1x.
Investors are advised to buy if the stock falls back to HK$17.60, targeting HK$20.00 with a stop loss at HK$16.80.

Today's Top Picks

LVGEM China (95.HK):
- Last Close: HK$2.40
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$2.80
- Stop-loss Price: HK$2.20
- Reason: Focus on real estate development in Shenzhen, with significantly higher gross margins and long-term prospects.
Dali Foods (3799.HK):
- Last Close: HK$5.24
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$6.00
- Stop-loss Price: HK$4.60
- Reason: Leading snack food and beverage company in China with a rich product mix and current price lower than listing price.

Sector Performance Overview

Best Performing Sectors (Daily)

Brokerages: +2.9%
Agriculture: +0.9%
Oil-related: +0.8%
Technology: +0.7%
Other Metals: +0.6%
Department Store: +0.6%
Durable Consumables: +0.5%
Medical: +0.4%

Worst Performing Sectors (Daily)

Environmental and New Energy: -0.1%
REITs: -0.1%
Chinese Insurers: -0.0%
Heavy Machinery: -0.0%
Local Banks: -0.0%
Steel: -0.6%
Medical: -0.4%
Department Store: -0.6%

Market Data Highlights

Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers:
- CRTG: +12.3% (1D), -12.1% (5D)
- WANDA HOTEL DEV: +7.2% (1D), +8.2% (5D)
- TRINITY LTD: +7.1% (1D), +10.1% (5D)
- GREENLAND HONG K: +6.2% (1D), +5.6% (5D)
- NORTH MINING SHA: +6.0% (1D), +9.9% (5D)
Worst Performers:
- C P NEW ENERGY: -8.1% (1D), +3.6% (5D)
- CHINA TRAVEL HK: -5.5% (1D), -2.1% (5D)
- DONGYUE GROUP: -5.5% (1D), -4.1% (5D)
- CHINA PRECIOUS M: -4.1% (1D), -11.4% (5D)
- SA SA INTL HLDGS: -4.1% (1D), +5.6% (5D)

HSCI Volume Filter

North Mining Sha (433.HK): 561.1% increase in turnover
Power Assets (6.HK): 354.3% increase in turnover
KB Laminates (1888.HK): 315.3% increase in turnover
CKI Holdings (1038.HK): 314.0% increase in turnover
Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK): 267.2% increase in turnover
CRTG (269.HK): 264.3% increase in turnover
Greenland Hong K (337.HK): 251.2% increase in turnover

Most Short Sold Stocks

Henderson Land D (12.HK): 56.1% of total short sell turnover
Sun Art Retail (6808.HK): 56.3% of own turnover
Weichi Power-H (2338.HK): 52.2% of own turnover
BJ Ent Water (371.HK): 52.1% of own turnover
Citic (267.HK): 1.5% of total short sell turnover
China Travel HK (308.HK): 16.1% of own turnover
Dongyue Group (189.HK): 12.2% of own turnover
China Precious M (1194.HK): 16.1% of own turnover
Sa Sa Intl Hldgs (178.HK): 17.8% of own turnover

External Market Conditions

U.S. Stock Market: Closed for Thanksgiving, with minimal activity.
Oil Prices: Rose to US$43.04/bbl due to a drop in U.S. rig count.
Gold Futures: Closed at US$1,069.7/oz, down US$3.6.
ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, leading to a 16-point decline in HSI.
Hong Kong Market Turnover: Expected to remain low due to U.S. market closure.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.9343%, +4.22 bps (5D)
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 2.2341%, -1.41 bps (5D)
U.S. 30-year Treasury Yield: 2.9944%, -1.59 bps (5D)
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.1898%, -0.83 bps (5D)
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3714%, -0.81 bps (5D)
USD/HKD: 7.7503, no change
EUR/USD: 1.0623, -1.0%
USD/JPY: 122.66, +0.2%
USD/CNY: 6.3908, -0.1%
USD/CNH: 6.4206, -0.3%

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 185.7, +1.1%
Comex Gold: 1,070.0, -0.7%
Comex Silver: 14.140, -0.6%
Nymex WTI Crude: 43.07, +6.2%
ICE Brent Crude: 46.17, +4.6%
LME Copper: 4,549.00, -1.3%
LME Aluminum: 1,460.00, -0.8%
CBT Wheat: 479.25, -0.8%
CBT Corn: 366.00, +1.2%
CBT Soybean: 875.25, +2.0%

A-share Premium to H-share

PetroChina (857.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 90.1%
Sinopec (386.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 83.9%
Angang Steel (347.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 89.7%
Citic Bank (267.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 79.8%
ZTE-H (763.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 26.7%
Fosun Pharma (2196.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 22.7%
China Life (2628.HK): A-share premium to H-share is 21.0%
China Vanke (2202.HK): A-share premium to H-share is -8.8%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823.HK): Price: HK$11.50, 1D change: +1.05%, 5D change: +1.59%
CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822.HK): Price: HK$13.06, 1D change: +0.46%, 5D change: +0.46%
TRACKER FUND HK (2800.HK): Price: HK$22.75, 1D change: -0.22%, 5D change: +1.56%
HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828.HK): Price: HK$103.50, 1D change: -0.19%, 5D change: +0.68%
CHINAAMC 300-HKD (3188.HK): Price: HK$46.15, 1D change: +0.87%, 5D change: +1.43%
CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822.HK): Price: HK$10.82, 1D change: +0.37%, 5D change: +0.56%
CHINAAMC 300-CNY (83188.HK): Price: HK$38.20, 1D change: +0.53%, 5D change: N/A

Key Events and News

PetroChina (857.HK): Announced plans to reorganize natural gas pipeline assets, including the injection of Kunlun Gas into Kunlun Energy (135.HK), which may boost Kunlun Energy's share price.
Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038.HK) and Power Assets (6.HK): Merger plan was rejected, and another cannot be proposed for one year.
Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK): Announced interim results, with a 42% drop in net profit YoY but a special dividend of 50 HK cents per share, leading to a 6% rise.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market showed mixed performance with the HSI and HSCEI slightly down, while the Shanghai Composite rose. ZTE-H is highlighted as a potential buy due to its strong fundamentals and attractive valuation. Key sectors such as Brokerages and Technology showed positive movement, while Environmental and New Energy faced declines. The U.S. market was closed for Thanksgiving, which likely affected Hong Kong turnover. Investors should keep an eye on index futures rollover and short-selling activity.

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