20150612-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content
This daily investment note provides an overview of market trends, stock performance, sector analysis, and valuation data for various indices and stocks. It also includes information on interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, and commodities, as well as data on A-share premium to H-share and top traded ETFs.
Main Market Trends
Equity Indices
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 26,908, up 0.8% day-to-day, with a 14.0% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
- HSCEI: Closed at 13,743, up 0.9% day-to-day, with a 14.7% YTD increase.
- Shanghai Composite: Closed at 5,122, up 0.3% day-to-day, with a 58.3% YTD increase.
- Shenzhen Comp: Closed at 3,101, up 1.5% day-to-day, with a 119.1% YTD increase.
- DJIA: Closed at 18,039, up 0.2% day-to-day, with a 1.2% YTD increase.
- S&P 500: Closed at 2,109, up 0.2% day-to-day, with a 2.4% YTD increase.
- Nasdaq Comp: Closed at 5,083, up 0.1% day-to-day, with a 7.3% YTD increase.
- FTSE 100: Closed at 6,847, up 0.2% day-to-day, with a 4.3% YTD increase.
- DAX: Closed at 11,333, up 0.6% day-to-day, with a 15.6% YTD increase.
- CAC 40: Closed at 4,971, up 0.7% day-to-day, with a 16.4% YTD increase.
- Nikkei 225: Closed at 20,400, up 0.1% day-to-day, with a 16.9% YTD increase.
- Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 9,302, up 0.0% day-to-day, with a -0.1% YTD change.
Hong Kong Market Turnover
- HSI: HK$30.6bn, down -20.23% day-to-day.
- HSCCI: HK$6.7bn, down -3.56% day-to-day.
- HSCEI: HK$20.6bn, down -18.56% day-to-day.
- Main Board: HK$124.3bn, down -13.76% day-to-day.
Stock in Focus
CGN Power (1816.HK)
- Last Close: HK$4.52
- Entry: HK$4.55
- Target: HK$5.65
- Stop-loss: HK$4.10
- YTD/1M/3M % Change: +34.1% / +7.8% / +45.3%
- Market Cap: HK$205.4bil.
- 3M Average Daily Volume: 197.9mil. shares
- FY1 Forward P/E: 25.85X
Analysis:
- CGN Power has experienced short-term volatility due to the listing of China National Nuclear Power (601985.SH) and its inclusion in the HSCEI constituents.
- Despite the decline, the company has a positive outlook with steady fundamentals and plans to expand its power generation capacity by 84% to 21,470MW.
- The 50-day moving average provides support, suggesting potential for a rebound.
Today's Top Picks
-
Cogobuy (400)
- Last Close: HK$13.40
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$15.00
- Stop-loss Price: HK$12.40
- Reason: Resumed momentum after testing 50-day MA.
-
Chinasoft Int'l (354)
- Last Close: HK$4.93
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$5.30
- Stop-loss Price: HK$4.55
- Reason: Positive outlook due to expansion into Internet Finance and Industry 4.0 markets.
Sector Performance
Best Performing Sectors (1D %)
- Chinese Insurers: 2.4%
- Infrastructure: 1.7%
- Chinese Telecoms: 1.5%
- Telecoms Equipment: 1.4%
- Oil-related: 1.2%
- Technology: 1.0%
- Logistics: 0.9%
- Medical: 0.9%
- Environmental and New Energy: 0.8%
- REITs: 0.8%
- Consumer Staples: 0.7%
- Chinese Banks: 0.7%
- Durable Consumables: 0.6%
- Marine: 0.6%
- Local Property: 0.5%
Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors
- Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
- Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
- Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
- Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
- Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883), Hilong Hldg. (1623), China Oilfield Services (2883)
- Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
- Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
- Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
- Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
- REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
- Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
- Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
- Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
- Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
- Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Forward P/E and Valuations
| Index | FY15E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng Index | 12.9 | 11.4 | 12.9 | (13.4) | 10.7 |
| HSCEI | 9.8 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 11.0 |
| Shanghai Comp | 20.6 | 11.1 | 85.5 | 24.7 | 13.9 |
| S&P 500 | 17.8 | 14.4 | 24.0 | 4.7 | 11.9 |
Market Data
Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers
Best Performers:
- China Precious M: 18.2%
- West China Cemen: 8.3%
- China Public Pro: 6.9%
- China Oceanwide: 6.0%
- Lijun Int'l: 5.7%
Worst Performers:
- Goldin Property: -9.6%
- Zall Development: -5.5%
- Central China: -4.5%
- China Shengmu Or: -4.0%
- Shanghai Pharm-H: -3.8%
HSCI Volume Filter
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D % Change | Avg. Vol (m shares) | Prev. Vol (m shares) | % Increase | FY1 P/E (X) | FY2 P/E (X) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sino Land | 83.HK | 12.720 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 31.4 | 509.5 | N/A | N/A |
| CLP Holdings | 2.HK | 64.850 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 17.4 | 424.0 | N/A | N/A |
| China Precious M | 1194.HK | 0.780 | 18.2 | 36.5 | 184.8 | 407.0 | N/A | N/A |
| JU Teng Intl HDG | 3336.HK | 4.010 | -2.9 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 253.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Yue Yuen Ind | 551.HK | 25.450 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 208.0 | 11.4 | 9.9 |
Most Short Sold Stocks
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D % Change | Shortsell Turnover (HK$m) | % of Total Shortsell Turnover | % of Own Turnover | FY1 P/E (X) | FY2 P/E (X) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHANGRI-LA ASIA | 69.HK | 11.540 | 0.3 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 76.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Agile Property | 3383.HK | 5.670 | -2.6 | 31.7 | 0.3 | 55.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Sands China Ltd | 1928.HK | 28.850 | -1.2 | 181.5 | 2.0 | 52.0 | 17.6 | 17.2 |
| SJM Holdings Ltd | 880.HK | 9.870 | 0.8 | 42.0 | 0.5 | 48.9 | 13.3 | 14.4 |
| VTECH Hldgs Ltd | 303.HK | 102.600 | 0.1 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 48.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Pacific Basin | 2343.HK | 2.660 | -1.1 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 48.5 | N/A | 24.5 |
| Redco Properties | 1622.HK | 5.200 | -1.7 | 82.1 | 0.1 | 82.1 | 15.1 | 11.4 |
| China Coal Ene-H | 1898.HK | 5.010 | 5.0 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 179.2 | 11.2 | 11.9 |
External Market Conditions
- US Retail Sales: Increased faster than expected, pushing US stocks higher.
- US Market Indices:
- Dow: +38 points
- S&P 500: +3 points
- NASDAQ: +5 points
- ADR Impact: ADRs rose, effectively putting HSI up 212 points, closing at 27,121.
- Oil Prices: Declined to US$60.3/bbl after a two-day winning streak.
- Gold Prices: Settled at US$1,180.4/oz, down US$6.2.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
-
Interest Rates:
- US 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7211%, up 1.24 bps
- US 10-year Treasury yield: 2.3826%, down 2.50 bps
- US 30-year Treasury yield: 3.0989%, down 1.47 bps
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2369%, down 0.53 bps
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3896%, up 0.11 bps
- SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.8400%, up 47.50 bps
-
Exchange Rates:
- USD Dollar Index: 95.0680, down 1.3%
- USD/HKD: 7.7528, unchanged
- EUR/USD: 1.1251, up 1.2%
- USD/JPY: 123.52, up 1.7%
- GBP/USD: 1.5516, up 1.6%
- USD/CHF: 0.9337, up 0.6%
- AUD/USD: 0.7746, up 1.7%
- NZD/USD: 0.7010, down 0.5%
- USD/CAD: 1.2292, up 1.2%
- USD/CNY: 6.2077, down 0.1%
- USD/CNH: 6.2117, unchanged
Precious Metals and Commodities
- CRB Index: 225.3, up 1.6%
- Comex Gold: 1181.3, up 1.1%
- Comex Silver: 15.980, unchanged
- Nymex WTI Crude: 60.51, up 2.3%
- ICE Brent Crude: 64.79, up 2.3%
- LME Copper: 5880, down 0.6%
- LME Aluminum: 1750, up 0.4%
- CBT Wheat: 504.75, down 2.4%
- CBT Corn: 355.50, down 1.4%
- CBT Soybean: 943.25, up 0.6%
A-share Premium to H-share
| Company | H Share Code | Price (HK$) | A Share Code | Price (RMB) | A-share Premium to H-share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHANDONG MOLON-H | 568 | 4.87 | 002490 | 17.10 | 338.5 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 15.50 | 002703 | 52.01 | 319.1 |
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 6.99 | 600876 | 23.23 | 315.0 |
| NORTHEAST ELEC-H | 42 | 2.80 | 601038 | 7.53 | 258.9 |
| SHENJI GROUP-H | 107 | 3.70 | 601107 | 8.69 | 193.3 |
| CHINA RAIL CN-H | 390 | 9.39 | 601390 | 19.54 | 159.9 |
| SHANGHAI PHARM-H | 2607 | 23.80 | 601607 | 29.19 | 53.2 |
Top 20 Most Traded ETFs
| ETF Code | ETF Name | Price (HK$) | 1D % Change | 5D % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2822 | CSOP FTSE CH-HKD | 17.96 | 0.11 | 1.47 |
| 2823 | ISHARES FTSE A50 | 16.02 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| 2800 | TRACKER FUND HK | 27.35 | 1.11 | -2.15 |
| 2828 | HS H-SHARE ETF | 139.10 | 0.80 | -2.52 |
| 3188 | CHINAAMC 300-HKD | 66.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 |
| 2827 | CSI 300 CHINA | 47.85 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| 82822 | CSOP FTSE CH-RMB | 14.38 | 0.14 | 1.27 |
| 83188 | CHINAAMC 300-CNY | 53.10 | 0.66 | 1.72 |
| 3147 | CSOP SZSE ETF-HK | 17.98 | -0.22 | -3.13 |
| 2833 | HSI ETF | 276.40 | 1.02 | -2.26 |
| 2840 | SPDR GOLD SHARES | 881.00 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| 3099 | DBX MSCI INDO | 98.25 | -0.91 | -4.52 |
| 2825 | CSI HK100 TRACK | 23.70 | 1.72 | - |
Key Takeaways
- CGN Power remains a top stock pick with strong fundamentals and a clear development path.
- Market volatility is expected to continue, but long-term growth is anticipated.
- Sector performance shows varied trends, with Chinese Insurers and Infrastructure leading the way.
- External factors like US retail sales and oil prices impact the Hong Kong market.
- ETFs and market indices show mixed performance, with some experiencing significant gains and others facing declines.
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