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Food and Beverage Industry Summary (July 30, 2023)

Key Rating and Performance

• Investment rating: Strongly recommend (maintain).
• Market performance: Food & Beverage index rose 60% in July 24-28, outperforming SSE & SZSE 300 by 15%; sub-industries led by liquor and乳品. Market perspective: Weak consumer demand persisting post-holiday, with high inventory and low pricing due to economic recovery uncertainties, but policy optimism provides tailwinds.

Core Viewpoints

• Policy influence: Economic policies are expected to stimulate demand through infrastructure and market support, potentially resolving supply-demand issues. Valuations are low, and fund holdings are at three-year lows, enhancing value. Liquor sector is 'K-shaped' recovery; recommend高端白酒 and real estate-backed stocks. Beer benefits from hot weather; snacks and frozen food gain from online channels and scenario improvements.

Recommendations

• Specific stocks:
  • Wuliangye Liquor: Stable Q2 performance expected.
  • Guizhou Maotai: Slightly better-than-expected H1 results, supported by digital reforms.
  • Inner Mongolia Yili Group: Robust sales, suitable for defensive plays.
  • Ganyuan Food: Channels and pricing factors suggest strong growth potential.

Risks

• Existing: Economic downturn, food safety concerns, input price fluctuations, slow consumer recovery. Legal disclaimers: Reports based on disclosures; investment risks apply, including secular and policy-related uncertainties.