2025-06-13-Jefferies-法兰克福机场集团（FRA）_本周图表_法兰克福机场负载率呈下降趋势_8页_234kb

1. Chart and Data Analysis

   • Frankfurt Load Factors Trending Down: Load factors for Frankfurt and Zurich airports have declined year-to-date (YTD), with volatility in March/April due to Easter timing.
   • US Arrivals in Germany: German tourist arrivals from the US have sharply decreased YTD, despite steady US departures to Germany.
   • Fraport Valuation: EV/EBITDA (NTM) for Fraport is tracking downward, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

2. Key Issues

   • Demand Weakness: YTD performance, geopolitical uncertainty, and declining US arrivals to Germany indicate demand weakening.
   • Traffic Performance: Analysts caution that weak traffic performance may drive earnings lower, despite improving sentiment around German stimulus.

3. Risks

   • Downside Risks: Increased competition from lower-fee German airports, which may divert traffic from Frankfurt; slowing industrial output in Germany, negatively impacting cargo volumes and profitability.
   • Upside Risks: Potential recovery in passenger traffic due to easing economic recession fears; better-than-expected performance from Fraport’s Antalya joint venture.

4. Valuation and Recommendation

   • Rating: Underperform (Unrated); Price Target €51.00 (down 18% from current €62.40).
   • Recommendation: Reiterate cautious stance on Airports and UNPF sectors, suggesting Avoid/Neutral for Fraport.
   • EV/EBITDA: Tracking lower on revised 2025 guidance.

5. Market Context

   • Fraport likely underperforms due to challenges in traffic recovery and broader macroeconomic headwinds in Germany, offset by expectations for potential benefits from recovery if stimulus works.

**Diane Lewis**  
*Analyst Certification:*  
*All investments carry risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is based on publicly available information and should not be taken as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, impacting asset valuations.*