2025-06-13-Jefferies-法兰克福机场集团（FRA）_五月交通流量_9页_564kb

May Traffic Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of air traffic trends and investment recommendations for Fraport AG, a company engaged in international airport operations, primarily through its concession of Frankfurt Airport and investments in Greece and Latin America. It also includes general information about Jefferies' valuation methodology, investment ratings, and regulatory disclosures.

Key Traffic Trends

Frankfurt Airport

• May 2025 Traffic Growth: +1.8% YoY, weaker than expected compared to capacity growth of +5.7%.
• April 2025 Traffic Growth: +4.8%.
• June Seat Capacity: Expected to grow by +4.8%, implying Q2 traffic growth of +3.8%, slightly below the consensus of +3.9%.

International Performance

• Mixed results across international destinations:
  • Lima, Peru: +6.3%
  • Ljubljana, Slovenia: +13.5%
  • Greece: +1.0%
  • Antalya: Flat
  • Bulgaria: +24.1%
  • Brazil: Strong growth of +132%, attributed to the lapse of flooding disruption from 2024.

Other Airports

• Porto Alegre: Traffic was impacted by flooding in May and resumed partially in October, with further re-opening in December.

Investment Recommendation

Fraport AG

• Current Rating: Underperform
• Current Price: €62.40
• Price Target: €51.00, representing a -18% discount from the current price.
• 52-Week High-Low: €64.80 - €42.90
• Market Cap: €5.8B (or $6.6B in USD)
• Float: 34.3%, with ADV MM (USD) at 8.79

Analysts and Contact Information

• Analysts:

  • Graham Hunt, CFA
  • Glynis Johnson
  • Priyal Woolf
  • Laura Ojeil
  • Gonzalo Riera Ripoll

• Contact Details:

  • Graham Hunt: 44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.com
  • Glynis Johnson: 44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.com
  • Priyal Woolf: 44 (0) 20 7029 8183 | pwoolf@jefferies.com
  • Laura Ojeil: +44 (0)20 7029 8220 | lojeil@jefferies.com
  • Gonzalo Riera Ripoll: +44 (0)20 7548 4690 | grieraripoll@jefferies.com

Investment Rating Explanation

• Buy: Expected total return of +15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of ±15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of -10% or less within 12 months.
• NR (Not Rated): Rating and price target temporarily suspended.
• CS (Coverage Suspended): Jefferies has suspended coverage.
• NC (Not Covered): Jefferies does not cover the company.
• Restricted: Certain communication restrictions apply due to company policy or regulations.
• Monitor: No financial projections or investment opinions are provided.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a sum-of-the-parts approach to value Fraport, considering:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity
• Growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return over the next 12 months

Price targets are based on:

• Market risk analysis
• Growth rate
• Revenue streams
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, and cash flow
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF, P/FCF
• Premium/discount to average group EV/EBITDA and P/E
• Net asset value and return on equity (ROE)

Risks

• Upside Risks:

  • Stronger passenger recovery due to improved corporate travel.
  • Better-than-expected performance from Antalya joint venture due to increased tourism to Turkey.

• Downside Risks:

  • Increased competition and capacity from other lower-fee German airports.
  • Slowing industrial output in Germany, which could negatively impact cargo volumes and profitability.

Regulatory and Disclosure Information

• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered as only one factor in investment decisions.
• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its relationship with companies covered in the report.
• The report includes disclosure of analysts, rating distribution, and regulatory compliance for different jurisdictions.

Other Important Disclosures

• The report is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or derivative instrument.
• Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
• Exchange rate fluctuations may affect the value of investments.
• Forward-looking statements are subject to change based on new information.

Conclusion

Fraport's traffic growth in May 2025 was modest at +1.8% YoY, while its capacity growth was stronger at +5.7%. The company's international performance was mixed, with some destinations like Brazil showing strong growth, while others such as Lima and Antalya underperformed. The investment recommendation is Underperform, with a price target of €51.00, suggesting a -18% decline from current levels. Analysts have identified both upside and downside risks for Fraport, including corporate travel recovery and increased competition, as well as economic slowdowns in Germany. The report also includes regulatory disclosures, rating distribution, and legal caveats for various regions.