2023年第二季度澳大利亚光伏市场报告-19页_681kb

SOLAR REPORT: State of Solar in Australia Q2 2023

Overview

• Rooftop Solar Growth: ~61,000 new installations (520 MW capacity) in Q2 2023, bringing total capacity to 20.5 GW. Final figures are expected to be ~91,000 installations (827 MW capacity).
• Historic Trend: Q2 installations exceed any previous Q4, likely due to higher electricity prices and take-up influenced by new-home-buyer incentives (previously concentrated Q4).
• Geographic Distribution: New South Wales led nationally (33.1% of installations), Queensland and Victoria followed. Western Australia (11%) and South Australia (8%) also showed continued uptake.
• System Size Trend: Average system size around 9.3 kW, with variation by state. Larger systems increasingly common due to cost/tech factors.
• Battery Storage: ~10,000 new installations with batteries (Q2 2023). Eastern states dominate; uptake may have slightly reduced since previous report due to SA Government scheme closure.
• Solar Water Heaters (SWH): Total ~1.5 million SWH installed. Decline in uptake (esp. NS, QLD) after 2009 federal rebate drop, but Victoria's recent programs are driving a recovery.
• Drivers & Barriers: Electricity price hikes, stricter deadlines (pre-year-end STC capture), higher interest rates (extending payback) are significant drivers. SWH uptake barriers: consumer awareness and maintenance concerns.
• All-Electric Housing Transition: Proposed ban on gas connections in new homes (Victoria) is a key step towards promoting renewables. Challenges exist; gradual implementation with monitoring is recommended.
• Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE): Tables show solar energy increasingly competitive, approaching grid parity in some areas (e.g., Adelaide, Perth). Costs vary significantly by city and system size.
• Payback Period: Data indicates relatively short payback periods (e.g., 3-10 years). Recent interest rate increases have lengthened payback by 1 year in all states; system size choice significantly impacts payback time.
• Government Policies: Various state/territory incentives for solar and batteries exist, including rebates, interest-free loans ($8800 Victorian), and renewable generation targets (SA: 100% by 2030; Vic: 65%/95%; QLD: 50%).

Key Sections & Details

• Installation Data: Clean Energy Regulator data used, with 12-month reporting lag noted.
• Battery Integration: Growing trend; residential uptake influences by state-specific schemes (e.g., NT, Vic).
• SWH Analysis: Distinction between standalone systems and heat pump water heaters. Government rebates, initial costs, and infrastructure vary by location affecting uptake.
• Cost/ROI: LCOE and payback period analyses show solar competitiveness rising. Interest rate sensitivity on finance costs is critical for return calculations.
• Policy Makers: Key participants supporting solar adoption through various incentives and renewable energy targets.