2026年第二季度天然气市场报告_70页_4mb

Gas Market Report Summary - Q2-2026

Core Content

This report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an in-depth analysis of global gas market developments during the 2025/26 heating season and the impact of the Middle East conflict on international gas markets. It highlights the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure, leading to significant supply shocks and price volatility.

Main Views

• Supply Disruptions: The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 caused a loss of nearly 20% of global LNG supply, significantly impacting short-term market fundamentals and creating unprecedented uncertainty.
• Price Volatility: Asian and European gas prices surged to their highest levels since the 2022/23 energy crisis, with TTF and Platts JKM prices showing extreme volatility, reaching 160% and 300% respectively in March.
• LNG Supply Growth: Despite the crisis, global LNG trade grew by 12% year-on-year during October-February 2025-2026, driven by new liquefaction projects in North America and Africa, particularly the Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana.
• Demand Adjustments: The conflict led to a downward revision of gas demand forecasts for 2026. In Asia, demand grew by 1.5% y-o-y, while in Europe, it fell by nearly 1% due to increased renewable energy use and higher prices.
• Regional Impact: Colder weather in key northern hemisphere markets (e.g., Winter Storm Fern in the US, Storm Goretti in Europe, and the East Asia cold wave in China) highlighted the importance of gas supply flexibility for energy security.
• Medium-Term Outlook: The conflict is expected to delay the LNG wave by at least two years due to damage to LNG infrastructure in Qatar and the UAE, which could reduce LNG output by nearly 70 bcm by 2030.
• Market Rebalancing: The crisis led to a shift in LNG cargoes from Europe to Asia, with the spread between JKM and TTF prices increasing to USD 2.8/MBtu in March 2026.
• Import Trends: Europe, Asia, and Africa all saw increased LNG imports year-on-year, although Asia was most affected due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Supply Security: The report underscores the need to strengthen global gas supply security through continued investment in LNG and gas infrastructure, as well as international cooperation between producers and consumers.

Key Information

• LNG Supply Losses: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a 20% loss of global LNG supply, with Qatari and UAE production dropping by 9.5 bcm in March.
• Price Increases: Asian and European spot prices reached their highest levels since the 2022/23 energy crisis, with TTF prices averaging USD 18/MBtu and Platts JKM prices averaging USD 20.7/MBtu in March 2026.
• Volatility Trends: TTF month-ahead prices showed 160% volatility in March 2026, the highest since September 2023, while JKM volatility reached 300%, the highest since March 2022.
• LNG Projects: New projects in North America and Africa contributed significantly to LNG supply growth, with North American supply increasing by 35% (or 24 bcm) and African supply adding 2 bcm from Tortue FLNG and 3 bcm from Congo Nguya FLNG.
• Demand Patterns: Asian and Eurasian markets supported gas demand growth during the heating season, while European demand fell slightly due to renewable energy expansion and higher prices.
• Energy Security: The crisis has emphasized the importance of gas supply flexibility and diversified long-term contracts to mitigate price variability and ensure energy security.

Table of Key Data

LNG Supply Growth by Region

LNG Price Volatility

Price Spread Between JKM and TTF

LNG Deliveries and Loadings

Conclusion

The Middle East conflict has significantly disrupted global gas markets, leading to supply shocks, price volatility, and a downward revision of demand forecasts. While new LNG projects have helped offset some of these effects, the long-term implications for supply and demand are substantial, with the LNG wave delayed by at least two years. The crisis has reinforced the importance of energy security, market flexibility, and international cooperation in maintaining a stable and reliable gas supply.