乌克兰与俄罗斯冲突的成本（英）-伦敦经济和商业研究中心-2022.2-41页_371kb

Summary of Cebr Report: Cost to Ukraine of Conflict with Russia (2014–2020)

Core Content

This report by Cebr provides an analysis of the economic cost of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia from 2014 to 2020. It outlines the impact on Ukraine's GDP, capital stock, and public finances, using a 'forgone output' methodology and comparing actual outcomes to counterfactual scenarios.

Main Findings

1. GDP Losses

• Central Estimate: Ukraine's GDP forgone output from 2014 to 2020 is estimated at $280 billion, representing 19.9% of pre-conflict annual GDP.
• Lower Bound Estimate: Assuming a stagnated economy, the cumulative loss is $191 billion, or $27 billion annually, equivalent to 13.6% of pre-conflict GDP.
• GDP Volatility: Ukrainian GDP has been highly volatile since 2008, with a 10.1% contraction in 2014 and a 9.8% contraction in 2015 due to the conflict.
• Growth Forecast: Cebr's 2013 forecasts predicted a trend growth rate of 1.4% from 2013 to 2017, increasing to 2.0% from 2018 to 2022. These forecasts were used to estimate the counterfactual GDP path.
• Pandemic Adjustment: The 2020 GDP decline due to the pandemic was factored into the counterfactual, assuming a similar proportional impact in the absence of the conflict.

2. Regional Economic Impacts

• Crimea: The annexation of Crimea led to a cumulative loss of $58 billion in output, or $8.3 billion annually.
• Donbas: The conflict in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk) resulted in a cumulative loss of $102 billion, or $14.6 billion annually.

3. Impact on GDP Components

• Exports: Cumulative losses due to reduced export capacity and Russian sanctions are estimated at $162 billion, or $20.3 billion annually.
• Investment: Declines in investment due to the conflict and loss of confidence are estimated at $72 billion, or $10.3 billion annually.

4. Public Sector Fiscal Impact

• Tax Revenue Losses: Cumulative tax revenue losses from 2014 to 2020 are estimated at $48.5 billion.
• Military Expenditure: The Ukrainian government spent an additional $15 billion on military operations during the conflict.
• Net Fiscal Impact: If the conflict had not occurred, the government would have had an additional $63 billion to spend on non-military activities.

5. Capital Stock Losses

• Total Capital Losses: The cumulative loss of capital stock due to the conflict is estimated at $117 billion.

Key Methodologies

• Forgone Output Methodology: This approach compares actual GDP with a counterfactual GDP path, assuming no conflict. It captures both direct and indirect economic impacts.
• Scenario Analysis:
  • Scenario 1: Based on Cebr's 2013 growth forecasts, assuming a moderate growth path.
  • Scenario 2: Assumes a completely stagnant economy, providing a lower bound estimate.
• Counterfactual Assumptions: The main counterfactual is derived from Cebr's pre-conflict forecasts, while the secondary counterfactual assumes stagnation.

Comparative Literature

• Åslund (2018): Estimates capital losses in Crimea and Donbas at $98.4 billion.
• Mykhnenko (2020): Provides an estimate of $84.6 billion in capital losses using the same Europe-wide wealth-to-income ratio.
• Bluszcz and Valente (2020): Use a Synthetic Control Method to estimate a 15.1% lower GDP per capita between 2013 and 2017, equivalent to a $1,439 per capita shortfall.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the conflict has had a significant and multifaceted economic impact on Ukraine, affecting GDP, capital stock, and public finances. The central estimate of $280 billion in cumulative GDP losses is the most comprehensive, while the lower bound estimate of $191 billion reflects an extreme assumption of economic stagnation. The report also highlights the broader economic channels of impact, including reduced exports, investment decline, and fiscal strain, and emphasizes the importance of using a comprehensive methodology to capture both direct and indirect economic consequences.