兰德-乌克兰战争对俄罗斯的代价（英）-2023.12-82页_1mb

The report by SHATZ ET AL. and CLINT REACH analyzes the economic and military costs of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By September 2022, direct military costs reached approximately $40 billion, with operations at $29 billion and materiel losses at $11 billion. GDP losses in 2022 were estimated between $103 billion and $160 billion, or 6-9% of 2021 GDP. Financial capital destruction, measured by the Moscow Stock Exchange, totaled $289 billion, a 35% decline. The war has strained Russia's economy, with sustained GDP declines and increased defense spending, but Russia's oil and gas revenues provide some short-term sustenance. The conflict is expected to be sustainable for several years, though long-term economic decline and human capital loss are significant risks.

Key findings include:

• Military costs rose to record levels, with 2022 defense spending nearing $6.4 trillion rubles (approx. $83 billion).
• GDP growth forecasts remain negative, with projected 2022 growth ranging from -2.1% to -5.1%, adjusting to earlier estimates.
• Financial markets experienced severe declines, with the Moscow Exchange losing over $550 billion in nominal value.
• Emigration and battlefield losses have damaged human capital, with Russia's economy struggling to adapt due to sanctions and export controls.