20250101-粤开证券-_粤开宏观_稳增长与防风险——专项债2024年回顾与2025年展望_15页_1mb

The analysis of the 2024 Year-End Report on Special Bonds (Securities Research Report) provides a comprehensive overview of the issuance and utilization of special bonds in 2024 and outlines expectations for 2025. The key points of the review in 2024 include:

1. Scale and Structure: In 2024, local government special bonds totaled CNY 77 trillion. Among these, CNY 40 trillion was allocated to new projects, while CNY 37 trillion was allocated to debt refinancing. The ratio of special bonds used for bond repayment rose significantly in 2024, reflecting a structural shift.

2. Financial Tool Diversity: Special bonds in 2024 were predominantly allocated to two major areas: infrastructure projects and debt restructuring. Approximately 40.5% was allocated to project construction, and 40% was used for implicit debt resolution through special bonds.

3. Regional Disparities: The allocation of special bonds in 2024 revealed significant regional variations. Provinces such as Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong allocated larger portions of their quotas toward debt resolution, while Beijing, Qinghai, and other regions received smaller allocations due to data reporting discrepancies or policy differences.

4. Investment Trends: The proportion of special bonds directed toward transportation infrastructure increased notably, with specific improvements seen in railways, urban rail transit, and logistics. Agriculture, healthcare, and housing projects saw proportional declines.

5. Long-term Financing: The average maturity duration for special bonds reached 15.6 years in 2024, up from 8.4 years for general bonds. This increased duration stabilizes long-term investments and reduces reinvestment risks.

However, the average yield for special bonds also decreased, dropping to 2.2% in November 2024 from 3.5% in February 2023—a downtrend that facilitates investment viability.

Looking ahead to 2025, the following trends are projected:

• Increased Volume: With plans to expand the scope of special bond usage and adopt a negative list approach, the expected issuance volume may reach CNY 45 trillion.

• Accelerated Issuance Pace: Early allocation of 2025 special bond quotas is anticipated, allowing for faster utilization.

• Expanded Scope: Usage restrictions will be lifted in areas not appearing on a "negative list," offering broader channels for investment.

Proposed policy adjustments for improving the efficiency of special bonds include raising the capitalization ratio, delegating review authority at the provincial level to expedite project approvals, and refining supervision mechanisms. The ultimate goal is to ensure transparency and performance consistency for better support of economic growth.

The report suggests leveraging fiscal policy to stimulate total demand, resolve fiscal deficits, and fortify national construction bonds to enhance investment efficiency, mitigating risks associated with fiscal revenue shortfalls. Nevertheless, implicit debt risks in some court cities and changes in equilibrium cannot be overlooked. The full utilization of special bonds in 2025 will rely on enhanced project quality, transparency, and efficient supervision mechanisms.