2018全球汽车供应商研究（英文版）_84页_3mb

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the automotive industry's transformation in response to major disruptions. It outlines the current state of the industry, future trends, and challenges suppliers face in adapting to a rapidly evolving landscape. The report highlights the impact of four key megatrends: Mobility, Autonomous Driving, Digitization, and Electrification, which are reshaping the automotive sector.

Main Trends and Outlook

1. Growth and Profitability in 2017

• The global automotive supplier industry experienced moderate growth and maintained profitability with an average EBIT margin of ~7% in 2017.
• Chinese and NAFTA-based suppliers outperformed the global average in profitability.
• Exterior and chassis suppliers showed improvement in EBIT margins.
• Powertrain suppliers faced margin pressures due to competition and innovation costs.
• Electrics/Infotainment and interior suppliers also saw declining profitability.

2. Future Outlook for 2018

• Slower revenue growth is expected, with stable EBIT margins.
• The four megatrends will continue to disrupt the industry, affecting all supplier domains.

3. New Mobility

• New mobility business models are expected to disrupt car ownership and logistics.
• By 2025, 10–15% of new car sales in the US and EU, and up to 35% in China, may be attributed to new mobility services such as ride hailing and car sharing.
• RoboCabs could significantly increase the share of new mobility sales post-2025.

4. Autonomous Driving

• The timeline for SAE Level 4/5 autonomous vehicles is accelerating.
• Penetration rates may reach 5–26% within 15–20 years.
• High scenario sees widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles in shared fleets and premium segments, while the low scenario limits adoption to urban areas and premium models.

5. Digitization

• Artificial intelligence and connectivity-enabled technologies are driving new possibilities.
• By 2025, almost all cars in mature markets will have some form of connectivity.
• Digitization enables new monetization options and enhances customer value.

6. Electrification

• Electrification is gaining momentum due to regulatory pressure and technological advancements.
• China is expected to lead in BEV and PHEV adoption, with BEV share reaching 13% and PHEV 4% by 2025.
• In North America and Japan, HEV adoption is more prominent.
• Battery cost reduction and rising oil prices could drive electrification in the US to ~20% by 2025.

Key Challenges for Suppliers

1. Slowing Growth: Will pressure margins and require new growth strategies.
2. Accelerated Technological Shifts: Increased investment in ADAS and electrification without quick returns.
3. Software as a Differentiator: May render many traditional competencies obsolete and increase competition from new tech players.
4. Commoditization and Disaggregation: Will push for cost reductions and operational efficiency.
5. Valuation Pressures: Commoditized suppliers may face mid-term valuation declines, increasing investor pressure for shareholder value.

Strategic Response

To thrive in the new automotive environment, suppliers must:

• Rethink their strategies to capture new growth or consolidate their existing portfolios.
• Define a long-term technology roadmap and strategic positioning in the value chain.
• Reduce operating costs and secure financing for the transition.
• Adapt organizational structures and governance models to manage both new and declining technologies.
• Foster an innovative culture to compete in new technology areas.
• Build new partnerships and leverage the ecosystem for innovation.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation due to new mobility, autonomous driving, digitization, and electrification. Suppliers must transform their business models to stay competitive, focusing on innovation, cost efficiency, and strategic partnerships. The transition period is marked by uncertainty, and the "end game" of the industry appears inevitable, requiring proactive adaptation to long-term changes.