2018全球汽车供应商研究（英文版）_86页-3mb

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Automotive Supplier Study highlights the ongoing transformation of the automotive industry driven by four major megatrends: Mobility, Autonomous Driving, Digitization, and Electrification. These trends are expected to fundamentally change the industry, creating both opportunities and challenges for automotive suppliers.

Main Trends and Forecasts

• New Mobility:

  • Expected to account for 10–15% of new car sales in the US and Europe and up to 35% in China by 2025.
  • Ride-sharing and car-sharing services are growing rapidly, attracting significant investment and high valuations.
  • RoboCabs may drive a larger share of new mobility sales post-2025.

• Autonomous Driving:

  • The timeline for SAE Level 4/5 autonomous vehicles is accelerating due to necessary economics, regulations, and technology.
  • Penetration rates for autonomous vehicles may reach 5–26% in 15–20 years.

• Digitization:

  • Artificial intelligence and connectivity-enabled technologies are becoming mainstream.
  • Almost all cars in mature markets will have connectivity within the next 10 years.
  • Cybersecurity threats are increasing, requiring suppliers to implement secure processing, secure network, secure gateway, and secure interfaces.

• Electrification:

  • Electrification is gaining momentum due to regulatory pressure and technological advancement.
  • In the US, electrification is driven by TCO advantages and may reach ~20% penetration by 2025.
  • In Europe, electrification is influenced by CO₂ emission targets, with penetration rates ranging from 20% to 32% by 2025.
  • In China, the NEV (New Energy Vehicle) market is expected to grow significantly, with 13% BEV and 4% PHEV shares in 2025 under a neutral balance.

Key Challenges

• Slowing Growth:

  • Growth is expected to slow in 2018, with stabilized EBIT margins.
  • China and NAFTA-based suppliers are currently more profitable than the global average, though China-based suppliers have seen margin declines due to intensified competition.

• Technological Shift:

  • The focus is shifting from traditional powertrain components to electrification, ADAS, and connectivity.
  • Powertrain suppliers face margin pressure due to competition and innovation costs.

• Commoditization:

  • Hardware parts are becoming more commoditized, and systems are being disaggregated, increasing pressure on cost and efficiency.

• Software as a Differentiator:

  • Software is becoming a key differentiator, making many traditional competencies obsolete.
  • Product innovators outperform process specialists in terms of profitability and growth.

• Investor Pressure:

  • Commoditized suppliers may face valuation pressures in the midterm.
  • Investors are increasingly focused on shareholder value, pushing suppliers to innovate and improve efficiency.

Consequences and Required Transformations

• Automotive suppliers need to transform their business models to remain competitive.
• This includes:
  • Rethinking strategy to capture new growth opportunities or consolidate existing portfolios.
  • Defining long-term technology roadmaps and strategic positioning in the value chain.
  • Reducing operating costs and securing financing for the transition.
  • Adapting organizational structures to manage new and declining technologies.
  • Fostering innovation through a new company culture.
  • Building new partnerships to leverage the ecosystem for innovation.

Key Performance Indicators

• Revenue Growth: Expected to be moderate in 2017 and slower in 2018.
• EBIT Margins: Expected to remain stable at ~7%.
• Performance Variations:
  • Large multinational suppliers maintain above-average profitability.
  • Very small suppliers lag behind due to limited resources.
  • Product innovators outperform process specialists in growth and profitability.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is at a tipping point, with global supplier growth slowing and profits under pressure. Suppliers must adapt quickly to the new environment by transforming their business models, investing in new technologies, and focusing on innovation and efficiency. The four megatrends are set to disrupt the industry and reshape the value chain, requiring a strategic and holistic approach to remain competitive.