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Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 outlines the ongoing transformation of the automotive industry driven by four major megatrends: Mobility, Autonomous Driving, Digitization, and Electrification. These trends are reshaping traditional supplier business models, creating both opportunities and challenges.

Main Trends and Outlook

1. Growth and Profitability in 2017

• Global automotive suppliers experienced moderate revenue growth of 3% and maintained an average EBIT margin of ~7% in 2017.
• China and NAFTA-based suppliers outperformed the global average in profitability.
• Exterior and chassis suppliers saw improved EBIT margins, while powertrain suppliers faced margin pressures due to competition and innovation costs.

2. 2018 Outlook

• Slower growth is expected in 2018, but stable EBIT margins are anticipated.
• The four megatrends will continue to disrupt all supplier domains, pushing the industry toward new business models and technologies.

3. New Mobility

• New mobility services (e.g., ride hailing, car sharing) are expected to account for 10-15% of new car sales in the US and Europe, and up to 35% in China by 2025.
• RoboCabs may significantly increase the share of new mobility sales post-2025.

4. Autonomous Driving

• The timeline for level 4/5 autonomous vehicles is accelerating due to economic viability, regulations, and technological advancements.
• Penetration rates for autonomous cars could reach 5-26% in ~15-20 years.

5. Digitization

• Artificial Intelligence and connectivity-enabled technologies are becoming mainstream.
• By 2025, almost all cars in mature markets will have some form of connectivity.

6. Electrification

• Electrification momentum is increasing among OEMs due to regulatory pressure and technological progress.
• xEV (electrified vehicles) sales are forecasted to reach 8-20% in the US, 20-32% in Europe, and 29-47% in China by 2025.
• Battery cost and oil price are key variables influencing the adoption rate of xEVs.

Key Challenges for Suppliers

1. Slowing Growth

   • Reduced growth will pressure margins and force suppliers to find new growth avenues.

2. Accelerated Technological Change

   • Increased investment in ADAS and electrification is required, but returns are not immediate.

3. Software as a Differentiator

   • The rise of software as a key differentiator may render traditional competencies obsolete, intensifying competition with new tech players.

4. Commoditization and Disaggregation

   • Hardware parts are becoming more commoditized, and system disaggregation is increasing cost and efficiency pressures.

5. Investor Pressure

   • Mid-term valuation pressure on commoditized suppliers could lead to increased demands for shareholder value.

Key Consequences

• Suppliers must transform their business models to remain competitive.
• Strategies should include:
  • Rethinking overall strategy to capture new growth or consolidate existing portfolios.
  • Defining a long-term technology roadmap and strategic positioning in the value chain.
  • Reducing operating costs and ensuring sufficient financing for the transition.
  • Adapting organizational structure to manage both new and declining technologies.
  • Fostering a culture of innovation.
  • Building new partnerships and leveraging an ecosystem for innovation.

Business Model Insights

• Product innovators outperform process specialists in profitability and growth.
• Scale economies are critical for growth, especially in process-driven segments.
• Profitable innovation is becoming a key differentiator in the market.

Cybersecurity Concerns

• Connected vehicles are vulnerable to cyber threats.
• Suppliers must implement secure E/E architectures, secure networks, and secure interfaces to mitigate risks.

Regional Performance

• China-based suppliers have seen margin declines due to intense competition, but still maintain strong growth.
• Japanese suppliers have experienced a slight recovery in profitability.
• Europe-based suppliers benefit from leading technology positions and a favorable customer mix.
• South Korea-based suppliers face margin pressures.

Electrification by Region

• United States: Electrification is driven by TCO advantage and fuel/battery price evolution. xEV share could reach ~20% by 2025.
• Europe: CO₂ emission targets and regulations are the primary drivers. xEV share could reach 20-32% by 2025.
• China: Government targets for NEV and FH/MH are key. xEV share could reach 29-47% by 2025.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is at a tipping point, with suppliers facing significant transformation. The four megatrends are reshaping the market, and suppliers must adapt their strategies, invest in new technologies, and foster innovation to remain competitive in the evolving landscape.