罗兰贝格：2018全球汽车供应商研究报告_86页-3mb

报告摘要

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 provides an analysis of the automotive industry's transformation in light of technological and market disruptions. It outlines the current status, future trends, challenges, consequences, and necessary actions for automotive suppliers to remain competitive in the evolving landscape.

Main Trends and Megatrends

The automotive industry is undergoing significant changes driven by four major megatrends:

Mobility: New mobility business models are expected to disrupt car ownership, personal mobility, and goods logistics. By 2025, new mobility sales could account for 10–15% in the US and Europe, and 35% in China.
Autonomous Driving: The timeline for SAE level 4/5 autonomous vehicles is accelerating, with penetration rates potentially reaching 5–26% in 15–20 years.
Digitization: Artificial intelligence and connectivity-enabled technologies are becoming mainstream. Almost all cars in mature markets will be connected within the next 10 years.
Electrification: OEMs are increasing their focus on electrification due to regulatory pressure and technological advancements. EV penetration is forecasted to range from 8–20% in the US, 20–32% in Europe, and 29–47% in China by 2025.

Current Status of the Industry

Record Volumes and Profits: In 2017, the global supplier industry saw 3% revenue growth and maintained an average EBIT margin of ~7%.
Regional Variations:
- China- and NAFTA-based suppliers are more profitable than the global average.
- Powertrain suppliers face margin pressure due to competition and innovation costs.
- Exterior suppliers are growing at attractive margins, while electrics/infotainment and interior suppliers are under pressure.
Valuation Trends: Valuations of automotive suppliers are above long-term averages but below peak values. Japanese suppliers trade at a discount due to market stagnation.

Key Challenges

Suppliers are facing five major challenges:

Slowing Growth: Reduced growth in mature markets like China and Europe is putting pressure on margins.
Rapid Technological Shifts: Increased investment in ADAS, electrification, and connectivity is required, but returns are not immediate.
Software as a Differentiator: Software is becoming a key differentiator, rendering traditional competencies obsolete and intensifying competition from new tech players.
Commoditization and Disaggregation: Hardware parts are becoming more commoditized, and systems are being disaggregated, increasing cost pressures.
Investor Pressure: Commoditized suppliers may face valuation pressure, with investors demanding higher shareholder value.

Consequences and Required Transformation

Business Model Transformation: Suppliers must re-evaluate their strategies to either capture new growth opportunities or consolidate their existing portfolios.
Technology Roadmaps: Define long-term technology strategies and reposition in the value chain.
Cost Efficiency: Implement lower operating costs and secure sufficient financing for the transition.
Organizational Adaptation: Adjust organizational structures and governance models to manage both new and old technologies.
Innovation Culture: Foster a new mindset and culture focused on innovation.
Partnerships: Build new partnerships and leverage ecosystems to drive innovation.

Strategic Recommendations

Re-evaluate Strategy: Suppliers should consider new growth opportunities or consolidate around their core offerings.
Invest in Technology: Prioritize investments in ADAS, electrification, and connectivity, despite long payback periods.
Enhance Security: Address cybersecurity risks with secure E/E architectures and robust security protocols.
Adapt to Market Shifts: Prepare for a transition period marked by uncertainty and prepare for the "end game" of the automotive industry.