20140820-巴黎银行证券-Brazil__2014_election_tracker_16页_717kb

Brazil: 2014 Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the 2014 Brazilian presidential election, including key data points on approval ratings, candidate familiarity, undecided voters, campaign timelines, and potential market impacts. It also outlines the backgrounds of the main candidates and includes legal disclaimers for the report's distribution.

Main Candidates

• Dilma Rousseff (PT - Centre-Left)

  • President of Brazil (2010 - present)
  • Supported by her predecessor Lula da Silva
  • Focused on expanding social welfare programs
  • Critics have raised concerns about her government's use of price controls, credit subsidies, and fiscal policies
  • Has a strong base among the poor and less-educated population

• Aécio Neves (PSDB - Centre-Right)

  • Former Governor of Minas Gerais (twice)
  • Implemented "management shock" policies to reduce government spending and increase merit-based pay
  • Belongs to the PSDB party, previously led by FHC (1995-2002)
  • Advocates for privatization and reduced government intervention

• Eduardo Campos (PSB - Centre-Left)

  • Former Governor of Pernambuco
  • Served as Minister of Science and Technology under Lula
  • Promises to expand social welfare and reduce red tape for business and citizens
  • Plans to introduce legislation for central bank independence

Key Data Points

Approval and Election Chances

• Approval rating thresholds:
  • Less than 35%: 0% chance of election (red sector)
  • 35%-45%: 40% chance of election (yellow sector)
  • 46% or more: 100% chance of election (green sector)
• Historical data:
  • FHC (1998): 43% approval - reelected
  • FHC (2002): 25% approval - successor not elected
  • Lula (2006): 47% approval - reelected
  • Lula (2010): 78% approval - successor elected

Familiarity and Rejection Rates

• Familiarity with candidates:
  • Indicates the percentage of surveyees who have heard of the candidate
• Rejection rate:
  • The percentage of surveyees who would not vote for a candidate under any circumstance
• Source: Datafolha

Undecided Voters

• Undecided voters are those who vote blank, null, or do not know/did not answer
• The evolution of undecided voters is tracked from August to October 2014

TV Campaigning

• First round:
  • TV campaigning from 19 August to 2 October
• Second round:
  • Publicly financed campaign starts on 11 October

Calendar Highlights

• 19 August: Publicly financed campaign starts
• 29 August: Q2 GDP release
• 5 October: First round of elections
• 26 October: Second round of elections

Market Impact

• Investors' opinion on asset prices:
  • Based on a survey of 73 institutional investors by Brasil Plural
  • Predictions on Ibovespa and USDBRL if each candidate were elected

Conclusion

The 2014 Brazilian presidential election was a critical event with significant implications for both the political landscape and financial markets. The main candidates—Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves, and Eduardo Campos—represented different political ideologies and had distinct policy approaches. The report highlights the importance of approval ratings, familiarity with candidates, and undecided voter trends in determining the election outcome. It also emphasizes the potential market reactions based on different election scenarios, providing valuable insights for investors. Legal disclaimers and regional distribution guidelines are included, underscoring the report's intended audience and the limitations of its use.