20250809-广发期货-沥青周报_原油成本支撑偏弱_叠加供应端复产预期升温_盘面偏弱运行_27页_2mb

报告摘要

沥青周报分析总结

原油支撑疲软，需求仍将受限 ——短期看空为主

核心观点

短期成本支撑回落，供需面缺乏强力驱动，但库存压力不大。预计沥青将走出偏弱震荡走势，建议逢高空。

市场动态分析

原料成本端：国际油价周内大幅震荡回落，因OPEC+宣布8月超预期增产、美俄关系缓和、委内瑞拉开采重启，导致原料重质原油贴水预期收窄，成本支撑减弱。
供应端：江苏新海、山东部分炼厂计划下周复产，主营炼厂维持高负荷生产，华东地区船发发货改善，供应端压力逐步释放。
需求端：雨水与高温抑制华北华南施工、江南地区需求不振，厂家出货量环比微降，改性沥青产能利用率下滑。预计雨季后需求或迎边际修复。

供需结构

供应端：隆众数据显示本周沥青产量环比减少至55.8万吨，产能利用率降至31.7%；下周期检修结束预计将带动产量回升。
需求端：厂家出货总量微跌，华东、山东需求弱于预期，但雨季结束后或现改善机会。
库存变化：社会库环比上升0.3%至187.3万吨（华东累库显著），厂库则同比下降1.1%；下周预计厂库继续去库，社会库存波动风险上升。

关键数据与趋势

基差变动：全国主要地区基差一致上涨，反映现货贴水加深。
价差动向：M1-M3价差扩大至70元/吨，远月合约月差走扩，显示投资者看空短期供需前景。
进出口价差：中国进口价差扩大，进口窗口趋势减弱，华南现货承压的可能性加大。

风险提示

①南方雨季结束后道路施工需求能否集中释放；②炼厂复产进度或超预期；③原油地缘政治风险反弹。

交易建议

建议短期逢高空操作，关注进口窗口变化与区域开工情况，警惕价格反弹空间。

Summary:

This report analyzes the domestic asphalt market and provides the following key insights: Crude oil prices have fallen due to increased OPEC+ production and improved geopolitical relations, weakening the cost support for asphalt. Supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while demand remains sluggish due to seasonal rainfall and high temperatures limiting construction projects. Inventory pressures are present but manageable, with factory inventories decreasing slightly while social inventories show regional variations. The market risks include unexpected demand surges if road projects ramp up post-rainy season and potential supply overcapacity. For trade strategies, the report recommends short positions due to high supply, low demand, and falling prices, but closely monitoring the interplay of geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices is crucial.

免责声明
This report does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investors should independently assess investment decisions and understand that markets involve significant risk.

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