2023-05-05-世界银行-洪都拉斯公共支出审查_加强财政韧性（英）_130页_10mb

Honduras Public Expenditure Review: Strengthening Fiscal Resilience

Core Content

This report, Honduras Public Expenditure Review: Strengthening Fiscal Resilience, conducted by the World Bank, provides an in-depth analysis of Honduras's fiscal challenges and offers policy recommendations to improve fiscal resilience and sustainability. The report is structured into three main chapters: Macro-Fiscal Developments, Fiscal Risks: Sources and Management, and Public Sector Wage Bill.

Main Fiscal Challenges

• High Fiscal Vulnerability: Honduras is one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the Western Hemisphere, with a per capita income of US$2,831 (2021) and a large portion of its population living in poverty.
• Economic Structure: The economy is small, open, largely agricultural, and predominantly informal, with 10.1 million inhabitants.
• Historical Growth: Real GDP growth averaged 3.1% over the past decade before the 2020 crisis, driven mainly by remittance-fueled private consumption.
• Poverty and Inequality: Almost half of the population lives on less than US$5.50 per day. The 2020 crisis, which included the pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota, caused a record 9% contraction in real GDP and a 6.4 percentage point increase in poverty.

Fiscal Risks and Management

Sources of Fiscal Risks

• Contingent Liabilities: These include risks from subnational governments, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), litigations, and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Contingent liabilities from SOEs, litigations, and PPPs range between 35% and 70% of GDP, depending on the assumptions.
• Natural Hazards: Honduras is highly exposed to natural hazards such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods. The cumulative losses from these events are estimated to reach 5.4% of GDP by 2050.
• Banking Sector Vulnerability: The banking sector is significantly exposed to physical risks from hurricanes and limited resilience. It is estimated that 6.2% of all loans could become nonperforming by 2050, leading to a 3.3 percentage point drop in banks' tier 1 capital ratio.

Fiscal Risk Management

• Fiscal Risk Unit (FRU): Established in 2015, the FRU is responsible for identifying, quantifying, and reporting fiscal risks using a structured framework.
• Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS): The FRS is well-developed and comprehensive, but it lacks critical information on specific risks related to PPPs, non-financial public sector entities, and the energy sector.
• Legal and Institutional Framework: While the legal framework includes provisions for loan guarantees, it is not comprehensive and lacks effective risk mitigation measures. Most provisions focus on monitoring rather than managing risks.

Recommendations

• Implement more proactive fiscal risk management strategies.
• Integrate risk mitigation tools into the medium-term macro-fiscal framework.
• Strengthen the governance and legal framework for loan guarantees and on-lending.
• Enhance the FRS to include specific risk management measures for key sectors.
• Address the structural weaknesses of ENEE and BANADESA to reduce contingent liabilities.

Public Sector Wage Bill

Overview

• The public sector wage bill is the largest expenditure category, accounting for 36.0% of total public spending in 2020.
• It amounted to 12.2% of GDP in 2020, and despite a decline relative to GDP, it remains high compared to international peers.
• The wage bill is a significant constraint on fiscal flexibility and public investment.

Key Drivers

• High Salaries: Public sector salaries in Honduras are among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean, potentially crowding out private sector talent.
• Wage Bill Composition: Approximately 70% of public expenditure is devoted to salaries, with 40% concentrated in the education sector.
• Wage Rigidity: Persistent inefficiencies and rigidities in public spending, especially in the wage bill, have led to an acyclical fiscal policy, limiting the government's ability to respond to shocks.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Inefficiency and Waste: Honduras suffers from significant inefficiencies and waste in public expenditure.
• Legal and Institutional Framework: The legal and institutional framework governing the wage bill requires a thorough revision to improve transparency, fairness, and incentives in the public sector.
• Wage Premium in Education: The wage premium in the education sector is higher than in other sectors, and there are significant variations in teacher wages and employment distribution.
• Recommendations: The report suggests improving the quality and efficiency of public expenditures, particularly in procurement, the wage bill, and targeted transfers. It also recommends exploring fiscal buffers and reforms that reduce exposure to climate shocks and promoting private sector investment in resilience.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen Fiscal Resilience: Implement a forward-looking fiscal strategy that includes adaptation investment and dedicated budget resources to respond to natural hazards without jeopardizing other development objectives.
• Enhance Fiscal Risk Management: Integrate risk mitigation measures into the fiscal policy framework and improve the governance and legal structure for managing fiscal risks.
• Improve Public Sector Efficiency: Focus on reducing inefficiencies and waste in public expenditure, particularly in the wage bill, to create fiscal space for critical investments.
• Promote Institutional Reforms: Advance civil service reform to improve transparency, fairness, and incentives in the public sector.
• Support the Energy Sector: Address the structural weaknesses of ENEE and BANADESA to reduce contingent liabilities and improve fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

The report highlights the need for Honduras to strengthen its fiscal resilience through comprehensive fiscal risk management, institutional reforms, and improved public spending efficiency. These measures are essential for ensuring sustainable economic growth, reducing poverty, and improving service delivery to citizens.