【世界银行】塞舌尔公共支出审查：加强财政缓冲，实现更具生产力和弹性的投资-2025_164页_1mb

Seychelles Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This Public Expenditure Review (PER) of Seychelles evaluates the country's fiscal policies, public spending efficiency, and the challenges posed by economic volatility and climate change. It provides a comparative analysis with other small island developing states (SIDS), high-income countries (HICs), and middle-income countries (MICs), and outlines reform options to improve fiscal sustainability and public investment outcomes.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Prudence and Fiscal Consolidation

• Seychelles has achieved high-income status, despite its small size and remote location.
• The country has maintained macro-fiscal prudence through prudent policies and structural reforms.
• Fiscal consolidation has placed public finances on a sustainable path and reduced risks.
• Strong revenues and modest capital spending have supported the fiscal balance.
• Budgetary revenues are mainly driven by the value-added tax (VAT).
• Public expenditures are concentrated in current and non-discretionary spending.

2. Economic Volatility and Climate Resilience

• Seychelles is highly vulnerable to climate shocks and global economic fluctuations.
• Climate governance and green public procurement are areas for improvement.
• The country's fiscal stance is generally procyclical, which amplifies economic volatility.
• A countercyclical fiscal policy can help mitigate the impact of shocks.
• Climate budget tagging and improved public investment management (PIM) processes are needed to enhance climate resilience.

3. Containing the Growth of the Public Wage Bill

• The public wage bill accounts for about 10% of GDP and 30% of total revenues.
• It is on par with other SIDS but higher than MICs.
• High pay disparities and a large number of allowances contribute to inefficiency.
• Wage bill arrears have increased, indicating poor management.
• Reforms include establishing a wage bill cap, an independent adjustment mechanism, and improving transparency and fairness.

4. Health Spending and NCD Challenges

• Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a major health challenge.
• Health outcomes are strong, but the system is underutilized and lacks data for efficiency and quality analysis.
• Health spending has been rising, dominated by curative care.
• Cost savings from overseas referrals could be improved.
• A rebalancing of resources toward NCDs is necessary for improved health outcomes.
• Options include enhancing efficiency, reallocating resources, and strengthening prevention programs.

5. Education Spending and Efficiency Gains

• Basic education outcomes are relatively strong, but youth at risk remain a challenge.
• Dropout rates are higher among males and in larger schools.
• Education spending is disproportionately allocated toward tertiary education.
• Wages and compensation dominate education expenditure.
• Improving educational quality and efficiency requires better teaching materials, teacher training, and school restructuring.
• Outsourcing non-institutional services and targeting scholarships for overseas study could improve efficiency.

Key Information

• Fiscal Pathways: Seychelles has maintained a strong fiscal surplus, with a primary surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2021.
• Comparative Performance: Seychelles performs better than SSA and SIDS on most development indicators, but lags behind HICs.
• Tax System: Seychelles has a relatively high tax-to-GDP ratio (28% between 2015-2023), with VAT as the main revenue source.
• Public Spending: Public spending averaged 35.4% of GDP between 2015-2023, with current expenditures accounting for 87.5%.
• Climate Impact: Climate-related damages cost between 0.5-3.6% of GDP annually, projected to rise to 6.5% in the medium term.
• Demographic Pressures: Aging population and lifestyle factors will increase pressure on public expenditure, particularly in health and pensions.

Reform Options

• Fiscal Buffers: Enhance fiscal frameworks to build buffers against overlapping shocks.
• Spending Efficiency: Improve allocative and technical efficiency of public spending.
• Wage Bill Reform: Introduce a wage bill cap, independent adjustment mechanism, and reduce pay disparities.
• Health System Efficiency: Reallocate resources toward NCDs, improve prevention, and reduce reliance on overseas referrals.
• Education Efficiency: Focus on quality materials, teacher training, and school restructuring. Target scholarships and scale up outsourcing.

Conclusion

Seychelles has made impressive progress in social and economic development, supported by prudent fiscal policies and strong institutions. However, challenges such as economic volatility, climate change, and inefficiencies in public spending, particularly in the wage bill, health, and education sectors, require urgent reform. By enhancing fiscal buffers, improving spending efficiency, and integrating climate considerations into public investment, Seychelles can ensure more productive and resilient development outcomes.