世界银行-洪都拉斯公共支出审查：加强财政韧性（英）-2023.4-130页_10mb

Fiscal Risks and Debt Sustainability: Honduras faces significant fiscal risks from contingent liabilities, particularly from state-owned enterprises like ENEE and natural hazards. High public debt and exposure to external vulnerabilities limit fiscal space, requiring reforms to strengthen risk management, including disaster risk financing. Budget rigidities, especially in wage bills and public service employment, constrain fiscal adjustments.

Public Wage Bill Management: The public wage bill remains high by regional standards, explaining a large portion of public expenditure. It is a major budget constraint and a source of inefficiency, hindering fiscal consolidation and productive investments. Reform efforts include rationalizing job classifications, streamlining recruitment, and improving performance-based compensation to align with fiscal sustainability.

Natural Hazard Risks: Climate change and frequent natural disasters cause substantial economic losses and contingent liabilities. While some disaster risk management strategies are in place, proactive fiscal policies and integrated financing mechanisms (like contingent emergency funds and insurance) are needed to enhance resilience and allocate resources efficiently to disaster response and recovery.

Key Recommendations: Strengthen fiscal risk assessment and management, enhance transparency in public finances, and implement comprehensive civil service reforms for effective wage bill control. Promote countercyclical fiscal policies and adaptive public investment strategies to build resilience against external and domestic shocks.