20181120-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_4页_250kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) showed positive movements in the recent trading days. On 19 Nov, the HSI closed at 28,372, up 188 points, while the HSCEI closed at 10,631, up 47 points. The overall market turnover was HK$80.3 billion on 19 Nov, indicating a slight increase in trading activity compared to previous days.

• HSI Turnover (19 Nov): HK$27.34 billion
• HSCEI Turnover (19 Nov): HK$22.41 billion

The HSI had 980 stock advances and 663 stock declines on 19 Nov, while the HSCEI had 1,034 stock advances and 624 stock declines.

Technical Analysis

• HSI Technical Indicators:

  • The HSI closed above the 50-day SMA, indicating a potential bullish trend.
  • The MACD histogram remains in positive territory, supporting the upward momentum.
  • The 14-day RSI is at 55.9, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold.
  • Primary resistance is at 26,500, while primary support is at 26,000.
  • The 20-day SMA serves as a secondary support level, and 27,000 is the secondary resistance.

• HSCEI Technical Indicators:

  • The HSCEI closed above the 50-day SMA, showing a similar bullish trend.
  • The 14-day RSI is at 56.1, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment.
  • Primary resistance is at 11,000, while primary support is at 10,478.
  • The 250-day SMA is at 11,564, which could act as a secondary support level.

Key Sector Performance

• Technology Sector:

  • Apple led tech stocks lower on Monday following reports of reduced iPhone production orders.
  • Major tech stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet) are in a bear market, with share prices falling 20% or more from their one-year highs.
  • HSI showed a white candlestick pattern, indicating a continuation of the uptrend.

• Real Estate and Property:

  • China Res Land (1109) rose 4.6%, and Country Garden (2007) increased 2.7%, showing strength in the mainland property sector.

• Consumer Electronics:

  • Sunny Optical (2382) rose 3.5%, following Apple's share price rebound.
  • AAC Tech (2018) rose 4.7%, outperforming other blue-chip stocks.

Xiaomi (01810.HK) 3Q18 Results

Xiaomi's third-quarter 2018 results were mixed:

• Revenue: Increased by 49.1% YoY to RMB 50.85 billion, and by 12.4% QoQ.
• Operating Profit: Fell by 38.4% YoY to RMB 2.21 billion.
• Non-GAAP Adjusted Profit: Rose by 17.3% YoY to RMB 2.89 billion, or 36.3% QoQ.
• Smartphone Segment: Revenue increased by 36.1% YoY to RMB 35 billion, with 33.3 million units sold. The average selling price was RMB 1,052 per unit, and medium and high-end models drove strong sales in China.
• IoT and Consumer Products Segment: Revenue surged by 89.8% YoY to RMB 10.8 billion, with smart TV and notebook sales contributing significantly.
• Internet Services Segment: Revenue rose by 85.5% YoY to RMB 4.7 billion, driven by a 109.8% increase in advertising revenue.
• Gross Margin: Overall gross margin decreased from 15.3% in 3Q17 to 12.9% in 3Q18, primarily due to the smartphone segment's margin decline from 11.7% to 6.1%.
• Valuation: Xiaomi's current valuation at 29x and 22% FY18 and FY19 prospective P/E is not considered excessive. The HK$12.00 level is expected to provide strong support for the stock.

Stock Connect Statistics

• SH Connect Balance: RMB 50.66 billion (97.4% of quota), RMB 51.43 billion (98.9% of quota), Combined Southbound: RMB 84.13 billion (100.2% of quota).

• Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound):

  • SUNAC (1918): Turnover HKD 258.66 million
  • GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover HKD 231.50 million
  • TENCENT (700): Turnover HKD 135.85 million
  • CONCH VENTURE (586): Turnover HKD 128.26 million
  • SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Turnover HKD 120.81 million
  • CSPC PHARMA (1093): Turnover HKD 114.81 million
  • CM BANK (3968): Turnover HKD 110.90 million
  • AIA (1299): Turnover HKD 110.30 million
  • CPIC (2601): Turnover HKD 97.85 million
  • NCI (1336): Turnover HKD 95.97 million

• Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound):

  • TENCENT (700): Turnover HKD 144.69 million
  • ZTE (763): Turnover HKD 137.33 million
  • ICBC (1398): Turnover HKD 131.19 million
  • MENGNIU DAIRY (2319): Turnover HKD 126.99 million
  • CITIC BANK (998): Turnover HKD 102.53 million
  • YUHUA EDU (6169): Turnover HKD 98.24 million
  • BYD COMPANY (1211): Turnover HKD 81.09 million
  • CHINA TAIPING (966): Turnover HKD 71.71 million
  • FOSUN PHARMA (2196): Turnover HKD 61.91 million
  • GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover HKD 79.20 million

Short Sell Activity

• Top 10 Short Sell Stocks:
  • PING AN (02318.HK): Short sell HKD 1.15 billion, turnover HKD 2.15 billion
  • TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short sell HKD 539.38 million, turnover HKD 1.44 billion
  • AIA (01299.HK): Short sell HKD 464.83 million, turnover HKD 1.54 billion
  • CCB (00939.HK): Short sell HKD 453.18 million, turnover HKD 1.06 billion
  • TENCENT (00700.HK): Short sell HKD 433.36 million, turnover HKD 5.26 billion
  • ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short sell HKD 412.47 million, turnover HKD 717.11 million
  • CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK): Short sell HKD 355.73 million, turnover HKD 1.08 billion
  • ICBC (01398.HK): Short sell HKD 269.89 million, turnover HKD 919.75 million
  • SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK): Short sell HKD 236.27 million, turnover HKD 540.43 million
  • SHK PPT (00016.HK): Short sell HKD 209.29 million, turnover HKD 885.90 million

Economic Calendars

• Hong Kong:
  • CSPC Pharma (1093) and Xiaomi-W (1810) results are due on Monday.
  • SaSa (178) and Vitasoy (345) results are expected on Wednesday.
• US:
  • Oct. Housing Starts and Building Permits are due on Tuesday.
  • Oct. Durable Goods Orders and Existing Home Sales are due on Wednesday.
  • Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI is due on Friday.
• Euro Zone:
  • Nov. Consumer Confidence and Markit Manufacturing PMI are due on Thursday.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities. The information and opinions are based on internal research activities of KGI Asia Ltd. and may be subject to change. KGI Asia Ltd. does not make any warranties or guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report.