20180605-凯基证券-Investment_Daily_4页_204kb
报告摘要
Market Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong stock market and related financial indicators as of early June, including the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), their technical analysis, futures data, and updates on the China banking industry. It also includes statistics on the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH-HK and SZ-HK Connect) and economic calendar events that may impact market trends.
Key Market Indicators
| Indicator | 4 Jun | 1 Jun | 31 May |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSI (points) | 30,997 | 30,492 | 30,468 |
| HSI Change | +505 | +24 | +411 |
| HSI Turnover ($bn) | 45.10 | 50.48 | 72.78 |
| HSCEI (points) | 12,249 | 12,020 | 11,978 |
| HSCEI Change | +229 | +41 | +209 |
| HSCEI Turnover ($bn) | 40.66 | 49.62 | 62.36 |
Technical Analysis
-
HSI:
- Gapped up on Monday and closed above the 100-day SMA.
- MACD line turned upward, indicating a potential positive trend.
- Initial support at 50-day SMA (30,582), with next support at 30,000.
- First resistance at 31,593, second resistance at 32,000.
-
HSCEI:
- 10-day moving average at 12,073.
- 50-day moving average at 12,161.
- 250-day moving average at 11,651.
- 14-day RSI at 53.0.
- Primary resistance at 12,350, primary support at 12,073.
HSI Futures
| Contract | 4 Jun | 1 Jun | 31 May |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun | 30,899 | 30,395 | 30,497 |
| Volume | 156,643 | 167,189 | 175,640 |
| Open interests | 121,996 | 126,419 | 133,713 |
| Jul | 30,709 | 30,203 | 30,316 |
| Volume | 455 | 848 | 337 |
| Open interests | 1,326 | 1,160 | 632 |
HSCEI Futures
| Contract | 4 Jun | 1 Jun | 31 May |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun | 12,152 | 11,962 | 11,930 |
| Volume | 82,387 | 89,056 | 103,427 |
| Open interests | 225,526 | 231,057 | 236,103 |
| Jul | 11,976 | 11,786 | 11,763 |
| Volume | 973 | 6,138 | 1,792 |
| Open interests | 7,741 | 7,004 | 3,020 |
China Banking Industry Update
- The central bank (PBOC) plans to expand the guarantee scope of the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) to include high-quality loans from small companies, agricultural bonds, and green bonds.
- MLF balance is currently RMB 4 trillion, with new guarantees estimated at RMB 400-600 billion.
- The expansion is aimed at improving financial system health and supporting small businesses and green sectors, but liquidity will depend on whether PBOC increases the MLF quota.
- CBIRC introduced rules to limit excessive borrowing from large corporations, promoting capital flow to smaller and innovative businesses.
- Increased monitoring of large loan enterprises suggests that managing financial risk remains a top priority.
Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK and SZ-HK Connect)
| Stock Name | Code | Buy Trades (RMB) | Sell Trades (RMB) | Turnover (RMB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENCENT | 700 | 171,112,620 | 184,609,280 | 355,721,900 |
| GOLDWIND | 2208 | 126,648,008 | 213,455,496 | 340,103,504 |
| GENSCRIPT BIO | 1548 | 53,616,700 | 115,965,600 | 169,582,300 |
| SUNAC | 1918 | 107,945,000 | 57,096,900 | 165,041,900 |
| CNBM | 3323 | 120,234,380 | 36,878,380 | 157,112,760 |
| MAPLELEAF EDU | 1317 | 73,919,040 | 60,591,460 | 134,510,500 |
| XINYI SOLAR | 968 | 13,829,060 | 117,284,460 | 131,113,520 |
| KINGDEE INT'L | 268 | 47,899,660 | 55,112,620 | 103,012,280 |
| SMIC | 981 | 68,976,650 | 32,436,640 | 101,413,290 |
| CPIC | 2601 | 13,441,500 | 81,015,570 | 94,457,070 |
Ten Short Sell Stocks
| Stock Name | Code | Short Sell (HK$) | Turnover (HK$) | Short Sell Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PING AN | 02318.HK | 1.09B | 4.42B | 24.64% |
| TENCENT | 00700.HK | 1.03B | 12.89B | 7.96% |
| HSCEI ETF | 02828.HK | 889.45M | 1.71B | 51.99% |
| CCB | 00939.HK | 747.11M | 2.95B | 25.30% |
| CSOP A50 ETF | 02822.HK | 321.43M | 565.17M | 56.87% |
| COUNTRY GARDEN | 02007.HK | 227.64M | 940.86M | 24.20% |
| CHINA MOBILE | 00941.HK | 217.95M | 1.31B | 16.67% |
| PETROCHINA | 00857.HK | 211.79M | 696.76M | 30.40% |
| AIA | 01299.HK | 193.04M | 1.14B | 16.94% |
| CONCH CEMENT | 00914.HK | 187.27M | 504.89M | 37.09% |
Economic Calendar Highlights
- Mon: US Apr. Factory Orders (-0.4%), Apr. Durable Goods Order.
- Tue: Euro Zone Apr. Retail Sales YoY (0.8%), Hong Kong Want Want China (151) Result.
- Wed: US Apr. Trade Balance (51.5B), Hong Kong Link REIT (823) Annual Result.
- Thu: US Apr. Initial Jobless Claim (Till Jun 2), Apr. Continuing Jobless Claim (Till May 26).
- Fri: Canada G7 Summit (Till Jun 9), China May. Trade Balance (28.78B), May. Exports YoY (12.9%), May. Imports YoY (21.5%).
- Sat: China May. CPI YoY (1.8%), May. PPI YoY (3.4%).
Conclusion
The Hong Kong stock market has been influenced by global market trends, particularly the strong performance of US tech stocks and improved economic data. The HSI and HSCEI have both seen upward movement, with the HSI expected to consolidate within the 30,800-31,200 range. The China banking industry is undergoing regulatory changes to enhance financial stability and support small businesses. Investors should remain cautious about high-debt companies and consider shifting towards well-managed banks like China Construction Bank (0939). The SH-HK and SZ-HK Connect show significant trading activity, with Tencent and CCB as top performers. Short selling is prevalent for several major stocks, indicating market uncertainty. Economic data and upcoming events may influence market direction in the coming days.
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