2025-06-03-Jefferies-家电渠道观察_为后补贴时代定位_8页_114kb

1. Overview

This equity research report analyzes the Chinese home appliance industry, focusing on companies like Midea Group Co Ltd and Gree (000651 CH). It examines their performance post-trade-in stimulus, channel reforms, and financial valuations, recommending a "Buy" for Midea and "Underperform" for Gree.

2. Key Analysis Points

• Trade-In Stimulus Decline: Phase 2 stimulus is weakening, expected to deplete in key regions. This divergence benefits Midea more than Gree.
• Performance Comparison: Midea is projected to have stronger online GMV growth (e.g., ~20% YoY during 618) and solid free cash flow (FCF) growth through DTC channel reforms. Gree faces market share losses, distributor challenges, and weaker online presence, leading to a preference for Midea.
• Channel Reforms: Midea's DTC model improves inventory management and product optimization, creating entry barriers. Gree's reforms are less effective, exposing structural issues.

3. Valuation and Recommendations

• Midea: DCF-based valuation with WACC of 8.45%, key risks include global expansion challenges and raw material costs. Jefferies recommends "Buy" with a price target exceeding current levels.
• Gree: DCF model uses a 9.5% COE, risks include balance sheet pressures and pricing competition. Recommendation is "Underperform," reflecting long-term challenges.
• Haier Smart Home: Hold recommendation due to EU market uncertainties and trade tensions.

4. Risks and Uncertainties

• Midea: Downside risks include weak global expansion, raw material volatility, and distributor health issues.
• Gree: Vulnerable to policy changes, weak distributor balance sheets, and intensified competition.
• Overall: External factors like Sino-US trade tensions, FX fluctuations, and raw material prices affect all companies. The fading stimulus may lead to wider performance divergence.

5. Conclusion

The report highlights Midea's resilience through channel innovations and financial strength, contrasting with Gree's structural weaknesses. Buyers are urged to consider the long-term prospects amid market shifts and regulatory changes.