2025-06-03-Jefferies-运动服装渠道观察_需求仍面临压力_7页_106kb

China's sportswear market is experiencing subdued demand after an initial surge in early May, aligning with seasonal patterns from recent years. The 2025 618 promotion, which is longer than usual spanning 30 days, has had a mixed start, with brands facing ongoing consumption downgrade that pressures sales. Analysts note that brands are adjusting by lowering prices or shifting focus to value-for-money products, emphasizing tangible product metrics like elastic modulus in shoes rather than brand storytelling. This shift is expected to favor brands that reset their positioning and innovate. For ANTA Sports Products Ltd, the equity research uses DCF valuation with a WACC of 8.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 1.0%. Risks include Fila's growth stagnation, potential losses from acquisitions like Descente and Kolon, and management dilution. Upside potential includes success from new retail formats and cost efficiencies. The rating is hold with a price target of HK$95.00. For Li Ning Co Ltd, a DCF approach values the company with a WACC of 9.5% and 1.0% growth rate. Key risks involve calculation failures to meet margin targets and inventory shortfalls, while upside stems from strong market share gains and operational improvements. The rating is buy with a price target of HK$14.88. Both companies face regulatory disclosures indicating potential conflicts of interest, and the report is intended for Jefferies clients only.