20251114-中邮证券-2026年展望系列一_通胀或进入温和修复阶段_13页_738kb

报告摘要

Summary of Fixed Income Research Report

Overview

This report by Liang Weichao and Wang Yi from CITIC Securities, dated November 14, 2025, analyzes inflation trends for 2025 and 2026. It concludes that inflation is entering a moderate recovery phase, with policies like "anti-crolling" and consumption promotion playing key roles.

Key Findings

CPI Trends: CPI is projected to trend modestly higher in 2026. 2025 saw low levels due to food and energy drag, but recovery indicators appear. Forecast for 2026: cumulative CPI around 0.6% (front-low, back-high pattern, peaking at ~1.2% in H2). Drivers include core inflation repair, food price stabilization, and policy effects.
PPI Trends: PPI is expected to show structural improvement in 2026. 2025 ended with -2.7%, but cumulative expectations for 2026: -1.9%. Repair comes from supply reforms curbing excess capacity and demand support.
Food Prices: Food prices may stabilize in 2026, reducing their negative impact on CPI. Pork cycle likely bottoms around mid-2026, easing drag from -0.5pct to neutral or slight support.
Energy Prices: International energy, particularly oil (projected $50-60/bbl), will remain weak, limiting inflation through cost suppression and global demand slowdown.
Core CPI: Policy-driven recovery expected, with core CPI rising moderately to 0.8%-1.2% in 2026. Services and durable goods demand, along with income gains, will support increases.