2021-05-31-群邑-2021年年中美国广告预测（英文）_16页_978kb
报告摘要
U.S. Mid-Year Advertising Forecast Summary (June 2021)
Core Content Overview
This document presents the GroupM's mid-year forecast for the U.S. advertising market in 2021 and beyond, highlighting key trends and growth projections across various media channels. The forecast is based on updated data and insights from the first half of 2021, reflecting the impact of the pandemic, economic conditions, and shifting consumer behaviors.
Main Trends and Growth Projections
Overall Advertising Growth
- 2021 Forecast: Advertising growth for the year is exceeding expectations, with $22% growth in media ad revenue (excluding political spending).
- 2021 vs. 2019: Advertising spending in 2021 is expected to be nearly 15% higher than in 2019.
- CAGR: A 7.4% CAGR is projected for the U.S. advertising market from 2021 to 2026, despite a 5.6% decline in 2020.
- Total Revenue: Estimated to reach $279 billion in 2021, rising to $388 billion by 2026.
Digital Advertising Growth
- 2021 Forecast: Digital advertising (excluding political) is expected to grow by 33%, up from 10% in 2020.
- Market Share: Digital will account for 57% of all advertising tracked in the U.S. in 2021, and 69% by 2026.
- Digital Endemics: Companies focused on digital platforms, such as app-based businesses and performance-driven marketers, are driving significant digital ad growth.
TV Advertising
- National TV Growth: Expected to grow by 8.7% in 2021, a full recovery from the 6.9% decline in 2020.
- Connected TV+: A key growth driver, with Connected TV+ inventory accounting for a growing share of total TV inventory.
- Local TV: Faces a more volatile trend, with 14.8% growth in 2021, but expected to decline in 2022 and 2023.
- TV's Role: Despite rising costs and declining linear TV viewership, TV remains a vital channel for brand-building, especially for large brands.
Other Media Channels
- Audio: Expected to grow by 25% in 2021, though it will remain 9% below 2019 levels when combined with other channels.
- Print: Continued decline, with newspapers and magazines experiencing -6.7% to -12.5% growth in 2021.
- Out-of-Home (OOH): Projected to grow by 16.1% in 2021, with continued growth through 2026, especially in technology and luxury sectors.
- Direct Mail: Growth is expected to be 7.1% in 2021, with a slight decline in subsequent years.
- Directories: Experienced a significant decline, with -23.4% growth in 2021 and further declines through 2026.
- Pure-Play Internet: The fastest-growing segment, with 29.4% growth in 2021, driven by search and other digital platforms.
Key Considerations and Risks
- Olympic Impact: The potential cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics could significantly impact the U.S. ad market, with over $1 billion typically spent on the event.
- Semiconductor Shortage: May temporarily affect ad spending, especially if marketers focus on long-term brand-building rather than short-term campaigns.
- Boycotts: Growing calls to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing could have similar effects on U.S. media markets.
- Market Shifts: Marketers are increasingly shifting budgets from traditional TV to digital platforms, particularly Connected TV+.
- Political Advertising: Expected to grow significantly in 2022, with $20 billion in federal campaign spending in 2020, driven largely by PACs.
Summary of Media Owner Ad Revenue (Excluding Political)
| Media Type | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total TV | 64,401.7 | 65,382.1 | 67,757.1 | 65,974.2 | 63,980.0 | 63,767.8 | 57,125.7 | 63,144.3 | 61,667.5 | 62,163.5 | 61,526.2 | 61,408.3 | 60,462.7 |
| • Growth | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.6% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -0.3% | -10.4% | 10.5% | -2.3% | 0.8% | -1.0% | -0.2% | -1.5% |
| - National TV | 41,064.2 | 41,313.1 | 43,416.8 | 41,835.6 | 42,992.3 | 42,855.8 | 39,895.6 | 43,368.9 | 43,368.9 | 43,568.0 | 43,598.1 | 43,471.0 | 43,201.9 |
| • Growth | 3.8% | 0.6% | 5.1% | -3.6% | 2.8% | -0.3% | -6.9% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| - Local TV | 23,337.5 | 24,069.0 | 24,340.2 | 24,138.6 | 20,987.8 | 20,912.1 | 17,230.1 | 19,775.4 | 18,298.6 | 18,595.5 | 17,928.1 | 17,937.2 | 17,260.8 |
| • Growth | 0.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | -0.8% | -13.1% | -0.4% | -17.6% | 14.8% | -7.5% | 1.6% | -3.6% | 0.1% | -3.8% |
| Total Radio | 16,565.6 | 16,478.7 | 17,027.4 | 16,814.0 | 16,543.5 | 16,699.2 | 12,485.0 | 15,284.2 | 16,113.5 | 16,105.3 | 16,282.3 | 16,039.1 | 16,157.8 |
| • Growth | -0.7% | -0.5% | 3.3% | -1.3% | -1.6% | 0.9% | -25.2% | 22.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.5% | 0.7% |
| Total Newspapers | 22,077.8 | 20,362.2 | 18,274.9 | 16,476.5 | 14,346.0 | 12,545.8 | 8,943.9 | 8,400.5 | 7,636.8 | 6,981.8 | 6,607.5 | 6,120.5 | 5,887.3 |
| • Growth | -6.4% | -7.8% | -10.3% | -9.8% | -12.9% | -12.5% | -28.7% | -6.1% | -9.1% | -8.6% | -5.4% | -7.4% | -3.8% |
| Total Magazines | 18,734.7 | 17,451.6 | 16,156.0 | 15,095.8 | 14,334.4 | 13,597.6 | 11,454.3 | 10,941.0 | 9,846.9 | 9,038.6 | 8,605.8 | 8,056.3 | 7,739.0 |
| • Growth | -6.7% | -6.8% | -7.4% | -6.6% | -5.0% | -5.1% | -15.8% | -4.5% | -10.0% | -8.2% | -4.8% | -6.4% | -3.9% |
| Out-of-Home | 6,374.1 | 6,612.6 | 6,797.7 | 6,899.3 | 7,317.2 | 7,780.3 | 5,930.6 | 6,883.5 | 8,264.6 | 8,598.5 | 9,318.6 | 9,519.6 | 10,095.7 |
| • Growth | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | -23.8% | 16.1% | 20.1% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| Cinema | 631.9 | 716.4 | 758.3 | 750.7 | 781.2 | 809.7 | 149.4 | 415.0 | 645.0 | 667.7 | 687.5 | 704.1 | 717.3 |
| • Growth | -6.8% | 13.4% | 5.8% | -1.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | -81.6% | 177.8% | 55.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Direct Mail | 17,327.4 | 17,479.0 | 16,864.5 | 16,266.0 | 16,097.0 | 15,887.6 | 12,721.4 | 13,627.3 | 13,426.3 | 12,439.6 | 12,715.4 | 11,427.4 | 11,563.3 |
| • Growth | 3.1% | 0.9% | -3.5% | -3.5% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -19.9% | 7.1% | -1.5% | -7.3% | 2.2% | -10.1% | 1.2% |
| Directories | 4,707.0 | 4,320.0 | 3,758.0 | 3,342.0 | 2,706.0 | 2,118.1 | 1,502.7 | 1,143.7 | 857.8 | 588.8 | 452.2 | 332.9 | 255.1 |
| • Growth | 4.9% | -8.2% | -13.0% | -11.1% | -19.0% | -21.7% | -29.1% | -23.9% | -25.0% | -31.4% | -23.2% | -26.4% | -23.4% |
| Pure-Play Internet | 38,370.6 | 46,627.5 | 58,461.3 | 73,394.6 | 90,990.6 | 107,109.3 | 121,853.4 | 157,717.9 | 189,096.2 | 205,684.2 | 229,762.3 | 243,276.3 | 266,349.1 |
| • Growth | 16.3% | 21.5% | 25.4% | 25.5% | 24.0% | 17.7% | 13.8% | 29.4% | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 9.5% |
| - Search | 24,901.3 | 29,289.9 | 34,095.0 | 40,470.0 | 47,800.0 | 54,400.0 | 57,228.5 | 71,953.3 | 85,865.9 | 91,490.4 | 99,753.6 | 103,377.2 | 110,455.2 |
| • Growth | 17.0% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 18.7% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 25.7% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| - Ex-Search | 13,469.3 | 17,337.6 | 24,366.3 | 32,924.6 | 43,190.6 | 52,709.3 | 64,624.9 | 85,764.5 | 103,230.3 | 114,193.8 | 130,008.7 | 139,899.1 | 155,893.9 |
| • Growth | 15.1% | 28.7% | 40.5% | 35.1% | 31.2% | 22.0% | 22.6% | 32.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 11.4% |
| Total | 191,950.7 | 195,922.6 | 209,355.9 | 216,029.1 | 231,403.1 | 241,083.9 | 239,163.5 | 278,556.3 | 313,152.3 | 323,316.9 | 354,354.5 | 357,985.8 | 388,043.7 |
| • Growth | 3.8% | 2.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | -0.8% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 8.4% |
Key Takeaways
- Digital Dominance: Digital advertising is growing rapidly and is expected to dominate the market, with a projected 69% share by 2026.
- TV's Resilience: Despite challenges, TV remains a key channel for brand-building, with Connected TV+ playing a central role in the evolution of the medium.
- Political Advertising Impact: Political spending significantly affects overall ad revenue, and is expected to rise again in 2022 due to the U.S. Congress elections.
- Market Shifts: Marketers are increasingly shifting budgets from traditional TV to digital, especially among small businesses and performance-driven brands.
- Economic and External Factors: External factors like the semiconductor shortage and Olympic cancellations pose potential risks to ad spending.
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