深度-群邑-2021年年中美国广告预测（英文）-2021.6-16页_979kb
报告摘要
U.S. Mid-Year Advertising Forecast Summary (June 2021)
Core Content Overview
This document presents the U.S. Mid-Year Forecast for 2021 and beyond, focusing on the evolution of the advertising market. Key trends and forecasts are outlined across various media types, with an emphasis on digital media's growing dominance and the challenges faced by traditional channels like television, print, and radio.
Main Points and Key Insights
1. Overall Advertising Growth
- 2021 Forecast: Advertising growth is exceeding previous expectations, with $22% growth in media ad revenue (excluding political spending).
- 2021 vs 2019: Expected to be nearly 15% higher than 2019 levels, representing a 7.4% CAGR from 2021 to 2026.
- 2026 Projection: Total media ad revenue is forecasted to reach $388 billion, up from $279 billion in 2021.
2. Digital Advertising Trends
- Digital Growth in 2021: Expected to grow by 33%, building on last year's 10% expansion.
- Digital Share: Will account for 57% of all tracked advertising in the U.S. by the end of 2021, rising to 69% by 2026.
- Digital Endemics: Performance-based marketers, app-centric brands, and digital service-dependent companies are significantly increasing their digital ad spend.
- Internet Share: If digital media is classified as internet, it will represent 65% of total activity today and 78% by 2026.
3. TV's Dynamic Stability
- National TV Growth in 2021: Expected to grow by 8.7%, fully recovering from the 6.9% decline in 2020.
- Connected TV+: A new category that includes digital extensions of traditional TV. It is expected to grow as a share of total TV ad spend, even though it does not grow independently.
- TV's Appeal: Despite rising costs and declining reach, TV remains a preferred medium for brand-building, especially for large brands.
- Local TV: Expected to continue its recovery, with 14.8% growth in 2021 and a 37% growth in 2026.
4. Other Media Trends
- Audio: Expected to grow by 25% in 2021, but overall remains 9% below 2019 levels. Podcasting is gaining traction and may draw from digital ad budgets.
- Print: Expected to continue its decline, with -6.7% growth in 2021 and -3.8% in 2026.
- Out-of-Home (OOH): Expected to grow by 16.1% in 2021, with 6.1% growth in 2026.
- Direct Mail: Growth is expected to be 7.1% in 2021, but it will continue to decline over time.
- Directories: Experiencing significant decline, with -23.4% growth in 2026.
5. Pure-Play Internet Advertising
- Growth in 2021: Expected to grow by 29.4%, driven by search and other digital platforms.
- Search Growth: 25.7% in 2021, showing strong performance and increasing relevance.
- Pure-Play Internet Share: Expected to grow from $38.4 billion in 2014 to $266.3 billion in 2026.
Key Risks and Considerations
- Semiconductor Shortage: May affect production and advertising budgets, though the impact is expected to be temporary.
- Olympic Cancellation: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled, it could disrupt $1 billion in U.S. ad budgets. A similar risk exists for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
- Political Advertising: Expected to be a major driver in 2022, with $20 billion in federal spending in 2020, mostly from PACs.
- Market Volatility: While digital media is growing rapidly, traditional media like TV, radio, and print continue to face challenges.
Summary Table of U.S. Advertising Media Owner Ad Revenue
| Media Type | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total TV | 67,161.5 | 65,874.6 | 71,257.7 | 66,990.2 | 68,287.3 | 64,536.3 | 64,122.8 | 64,143.3 | 67,265.2 | 63,212.5 | 69,922.8 | 62,509.7 | 69,279.1 |
| • Growth | 6.1% | -1.9% | 8.2% | -6.0% | 2.8% | -5.5% | -6.9% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| - National TV | 41,064.2 | 41,313.1 | 43,416.8 | 41,835.6 | 42,992.3 | 42,855.8 | 39,895.6 | 43,368.9 | 43,368.9 | 43,568.0 | 43,598.1 | 43,471.0 | 43,201.9 |
| • Growth | 3.8% | 0.6% | 5.1% | -3.6% | 2.8% | -0.3% | -6.9% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| - Local TV | 26,097.4 | 24,561.5 | 27,840.9 | 25,154.7 | 25,295.0 | 21,680.5 | 24,227.2 | 20,774.4 | 23,896.3 | 19,644.4 | 26,324.7 | 19,038.6 | 26,077.2 |
| • Growth | 10.0% | -5.9% | 13.4% | -9.6% | 0.6% | -14.3% | 11.7% | -14.3% | 15.0% | -17.8% | 34.0% | -27.7% | 37.0% |
| Total Radio | 16,565.6 | 16,478.7 | 17,027.4 | 16,814.0 | 16,543.5 | 16,699.2 | 12,485.0 | 15,284.2 | 16,113.5 | 16,105.3 | 16,282.3 | 16,039.1 | 16,157.8 |
| • Growth | -0.7% | -0.5% | 3.3% | -1.3% | -1.6% | 0.9% | -25.2% | 22.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.5% | 0.7% |
| Total Newspapers | 22,077.8 | 20,362.2 | 18,274.9 | 16,476.5 | 14,346.0 | 12,545.8 | 8,943.9 | 8,400.5 | 7,636.8 | 6,981.8 | 6,607.5 | 6,120.5 | 5,887.3 |
| • Growth | -6.4% | -7.8% | -10.3% | -9.8% | -12.9% | -12.5% | -28.7% | -6.1% | -9.1% | -8.6% | -5.4% | -7.4% | -3.8% |
| Total Magazines | 18,734.7 | 17,451.6 | 16,156.0 | 15,095.8 | 14,334.4 | 13,597.6 | 11,454.3 | 10,941.0 | 9,846.9 | 9,038.6 | 8,605.8 | 8,056.3 | 7,739.0 |
| • Growth | -6.7% | -6.8% | -7.4% | -6.6% | -5.0% | -5.1% | -15.8% | -4.5% | -10.0% | -8.2% | -4.8% | -6.4% | -3.9% |
| Out-of-Home (OOH) | 6,374.1 | 6,612.6 | 6,797.7 | 6,899.3 | 7,317.2 | 7,780.3 | 5,930.6 | 6,883.5 | 8,264.6 | 8,598.5 | 9,318.6 | 9,519.6 | 10,095.7 |
| • Growth | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | -23.8% | 16.1% | 20.1% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| Direct Mail | 17,327.4 | 17,479.0 | 16,864.5 | 16,266.0 | 16,097.0 | 15,887.6 | 12,721.4 | 13,627.3 | 13,426.3 | 12,439.6 | 12,715.4 | 11,427.4 | 11,563.3 |
| • Growth | 3.1% | 0.9% | -3.5% | -3.5% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -19.9% | 7.1% | -1.5% | -7.3% | 2.2% | -10.1% | 1.2% |
| Directories | 4,707.0 | 4,320.0 | 3,758.0 | 3,342.0 | 2,706.0 | 2,118.1 | 1,502.7 | 1,143.7 | 857.8 | 588.8 | 452.2 | 332.9 | 255.1 |
| • Growth | 4.9% | -8.2% | -13.0% | -11.1% | -19.0% | -21.7% | -29.1% | -23.9% | -25.0% | -31.4% | -23.2% | -26.4% | -23.4% |
| Pure-Play Internet | 38,370.6 | 46,627.5 | 58,461.3 | 73,394.6 | 90,990.6 | 107,109.3 | 121,853.4 | 157,717.9 | 189,096.2 | 205,684.2 | 229,762.3 | 243,276.3 | 266,349.1 |
| • Growth | 16.3% | 21.5% | 25.4% | 25.5% | 24.0% | 17.7% | 13.8% | 29.4% | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 9.5% |
| - Search | 24,901.3 | 29,289.9 | 34,095.0 | 40,470.0 | 47,800.0 | 54,400.0 | 57,228.5 | 71,953.3 | 85,865.9 | 91,490.4 | 99,753.6 | 103,377.2 | 110,455.2 |
| • Growth | 17.0% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 18.7% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 25.7% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| - Ex-Search | 13,469.3 | 17,337.6 | 24,366.3 | 32,924.6 | 43,190.6 | 52,709.3 | 64,624.9 | 85,764.5 | 103,230.3 | 114,193.8 | 130,008.7 | 139,899.1 | 155,893.9 |
| • Growth | 15.1% | 28.7% | 40.5% | 35.1% | 31.2% | 22.0% | 22.6% | 32.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 11.4% |
| Total | 191,950.7 | 195,922.6 | 209,355.9 | 216,029.1 | 231,403.1 | 241,083.9 | 239,163.5 | 278,556.3 | 313,152.3 | 323,316.9 | 354,354.5 | 357,985.8 | 388,043.7 |
| • Growth | 3.8% | 2.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | -0.8% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 8.4% |
Conclusion
The U.S. advertising market is showing strong recovery and growth, especially in digital media, which is expected to dominate the market in the coming years. While traditional media like TV and print face challenges, they remain relevant due to their role in brand-building. The document also highlights the importance of political advertising, especially in 2022, and the potential risks posed by external factors like the Olympics and the semiconductor shortage. Overall, the market is evolving rapidly, and the ability to adapt to new media formats and strategies will be key to success.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
