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Global End-of-Year Forecast Summary (December 2021)

Core Content Overview

This document presents GroupM's global end-of-year forecast for the advertising industry, covering the performance and outlook of various media channels in 2021 and 2022. It highlights the resilience of the advertising sector amid economic and supply chain challenges, and emphasizes the growing dominance of digital advertising.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Industry Growth Outlook

• 2021 Growth: The global advertising industry is expected to grow by 22.5% (excluding U.S. political advertising), significantly higher than the previously forecasted 19.2%.
• 2022 Growth: The growth rate is forecasted to moderate to 9.7%, down from 8.8%, but still historically strong.
• 2025 Projection: Combined media (TV, digital, audio, newspapers, magazines, cinema, and outdoor) are projected to exceed $1 trillion in ad revenue.

2. Digital Advertising Dominance

• 2021 Growth: Digital advertising is expected to grow by 30.5%, excluding U.S. political advertising, and account for 64.4% of total advertising revenue, up from 60.5% in 2020 and 52.1% in 2019.
• 2022 Growth: Digital advertising is forecasted to grow by an additional 13.5%, contributing to a broader shift in the media landscape.
• Global Share: The top three global digital advertisers—Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon—account for 80–90% of global digital ad revenue, with Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon collectively representing over 50% of the global advertising industry in 2021, up from 40% in 2019.
• 2026 Projection: Digital advertising is expected to account for 71% of U.S. ad revenue by 2026.

3. Television Outlook

• 2021 Growth: Global TV advertising is expected to grow by 11.7%, excluding U.S. political advertising.
• 2023 Recovery: It will not return to 2019 levels until 2023, due to the severe 13.7% decline in 2020.
• 2022 Growth: TV advertising is expected to grow by 17.1% in 2021 and 14.9% in 2022.
• 2026 Projection: Connected TV+ advertising revenue is forecasted to reach $33 billion, showing substantial growth potential.
• Political Advertising: Expected to grow to $7 billion in 2022, helping sustain the TV sector's overall durability.
• 2026 TV Share: Political advertising is projected to account for 13% of all TV advertising, up from 9% in 2020.

4. Other Media Trends

• Print Media: The print industry is expected to remain flat in 2021, with newspapers showing slight growth and magazines a slight decline. Beyond 2021, low- to mid-single digit declines are expected.
• Audio Advertising: Projected to grow by 15.6% in 2021 and 6.4% in 2022, with a return to 2019 levels expected in 2022.
• Outdoor Advertising: Expected to grow by 17.1% in 2021 and 14.9% in 2022, with a return to 2019 levels anticipated by 2023.
• Digital Integration: Digital extensions are increasingly important in media plans, especially in the audio category, where digital streaming and podcasting are key growth drivers.

5. Key Growth Markets

• U.S., China, and U.K. remain the most important growth markets, contributing approximately 70% of the industry's growth despite accounting for only 60% of the total market.
• U.S. Growth: Expected to grow by 22.7% in 2021, with 28.4% excluding political advertising. Digital media will continue to drive this growth, with a forecast of 60% of total ad revenue.
• China Growth: Projected to grow by 18.8% in 2021, slightly below the June forecast. Digital advertising now accounts for nearly 90% of the market, up from 80% pre-pandemic.
• U.K. Growth: Expected to grow by 35.7% in 2021, the fastest among major markets, with digital media capturing 78% of the industry this year and trending toward 82% by 2026.

6. Risks and Considerations

• Sustainability: Some of the growth in 2021 may be driven by new small businesses, venture-funded startups, and digital endemic businesses, which may not sustain the same pace in the future.
• Economic Factors: Inflation and supply chain constraints have created challenges, but the overall economic environment remains favorable for advertising.
• Regulatory Impact: In China, new regulations on minors, content, and algorithms have not yet impacted industry-wide ad growth, though they may influence future trends.
• Data and Privacy: Changes like Apple's iOS data restrictions have had a marginal impact on industry-level ad spending, as marketers continue to adjust to the best available data.

7. Media Convergence and Blurring Lines

• The distinction between digital and non-digital advertising is becoming less relevant as media companies increasingly blur the lines between traditional and digital formats.
• Connected TV+ is expected to grow significantly, but ad-free platforms like Netflix and Disney+ will limit advertising opportunities.
• Integration of Media: Marketers may increasingly integrate YouTube and traditional TV to maintain reach and effectiveness, as ad-supported TV declines.

Conclusion

The advertising industry is experiencing a strong and accelerated growth phase, driven primarily by digital advertising. While the U.S., China, and U.K. remain the key growth markets, the broader industry is expected to moderate in 2022. Television will continue to play a vital role, especially for large brands, but digital integration and media convergence are reshaping the landscape, making the traditional definitions of media less relevant over time.