2022-12-22-群邑-2022年年底全球广告预测报告_34页_8mb

报告摘要

2022-2023 Global Advertising Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of global advertising trends and forecasts for 2022 and 2023, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors, digital transformation, and shifting consumer behavior.

Main Stream

Global Advertising Growth

2022 Forecast: Global advertising growth is expected to be 6.5%, excluding U.S. political advertising.
Comparison to June Forecast: This is a downgrade from the June estimate of 8.4%, primarily due to lowered expectations for China.
Ex-China Growth: Advertising growth is forecast at 8.1% in markets excluding China.
2023 Forecast: Advertising growth is expected to decelerate to 5.9%, below the IMF's forecast of 6.5% global inflation.
Market Breakdown:
- 35 markets: Forecast to grow, but below global inflation.
- 25 markets: Projected to grow above global inflation.
- 4 markets: Expected to see nominal decline, including Austria, Italy, New Zealand, and Spain.

Key Drivers of Cautious Optimism

Limited Channel Declines: Large declines appear limited to specific channels in certain markets, such as TV in Germany, France, and the U.K., and OOH in China.
Cautious Advertisers: Despite inflation and cost-of-living crises, large advertisers have recorded revenue gains, indicating resilience.
Low Unemployment: Unemployment remains low globally, with mixed wage gains adding ambiguity about potential recessions.
Digital Growth: Digital advertising continues to grow, with pure-play digital platforms and digital extensions of traditional media expected to grow double digits in 2022, excluding China.

Media Trends

Digital Advertising

Global Pure-Play Digital Growth: Forecast at 9.3% for 2022, down from 11.5% in June.
Digital Share of Advertising: Digital advertising now accounts for 67% of the industry total, with an expected increase to 73% by 2027.
Retail Media: One of the fastest-growing segments, estimated to reach $110.7 billion in 2022, an upgrade from $101 billion in September.
Digital Platforms: TikTok is expected to double revenue in 2022, while Twitter remains an open question due to uncertainty around its future and government scrutiny in key markets.

Connected TV (CTV)

CTV Growth: Expected to grow double digits, narrowly offsetting declines in traditional TV.
TV Recovery: Global TV growth is forecast at 1.7% in 2022 (excluding U.S. political advertising), with growth expected to remain between 1% - 3% over the next five years.

Traditional TV

Declining Reach: Traditional TV reach is declining in most markets, especially among younger audiences.
Shift to Social Platforms: Marketers are increasingly using social commerce sites and short-form video platforms to reach audiences, as the quality of linear TV content has diminished.
Content Fragmentation: The atomization of media is occurring due to algorithm-driven and personal network-based content experiences.

Market-Specific Insights

China: Expected to see a nominal decline of 0.6% in 2022, driven by zero-COVID policy and lockdowns.
U.S.: Advertising growth is forecast at 7.1% (excluding political advertising), down from 10.1% in June.
U.K.: New business formation is behind 2019 levels, and business deaths have increased, indicating a weaker economic climate.
Other Markets: Australia, Brazil, France, India, and Japan are expected to grow ahead of inflation, while the U.S., Canada, and Germany are projected to grow slightly behind.

Workforce and Economic Context

Workforce Reductions: Several advertising companies have reported hiring freezes and layoffs, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.
Corporate Strategy: These reductions are seen as a response to higher interest rates and cost of capital, which have led to more conservative spending.
Economic Uncertainty: The current economic environment is uncertain, with inflation and war in Ukraine as key challenges.

Summary of Key Figures

2022 Global Advertising Growth: 6.5%
2023 Global Advertising Growth: 5.9%
China's Advertising Growth: -0.6% in 2022
U.S. Advertising Growth: 7.1% (excluding political advertising)
Digital Advertising Share (2022): 67%
Digital Advertising CAGR (2019-2022): 8.8%
Retail Media Revenue (2022): $110.7 billion
TikTok Revenue Growth (2022): Expected to double
Pay TV Penetration (U.S. by 2025): Likely to fall below 50%

Conclusion

Despite the economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, the global advertising industry is expected to grow in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than in 2022. Digital advertising continues to be a key growth driver, while traditional TV faces declining reach and increased fragmentation. China remains a major concern, with negative growth expected, while other markets show resilience and optimism.