2022年全球广告预测报告（英）-46页_8mb

Summary of Dentsu's 2022 Global Ad Spend Forecasts

Core Content

Dentsu International released a comprehensive report on global advertising spend forecasts for 2022, highlighting key trends, regional outlooks, and media transformations. The report outlines how the advertising industry is evolving in response to the ongoing impact of the pandemic, shifting consumer behaviors, and technological advancements.

Main Trends and Forecasts

Global Ad Spend Growth

• Global ad spend is forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2022, reaching US$745.0 billion, surpassing the 2019 prepandemic level by US$117.2 billion.
• This growth is nearly three times that of 2011, the year following the global financial crisis.
• 2021 saw a record 17.0% growth, which was 6.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.
• The growth is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024, with 4.6% and 5.8% growth respectively, both exceeding pre-pandemic growth rates.

Digital Dominance

• Digital ad spend is expected to account for 55.5% of global spend in 2022, rising to 59.4% by 2024.
• Social media, video, and search are the leading drivers of digital growth, with 21.4%, 18.9%, and 16.9% YOY increases respectively.
• Digital ad spend is forecasted to reach US$408.4 billion in 2022, with a 14.8% growth following 29.1% in 2021.

Linear Television

• Linear television ad spend is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2022, reaching US$197.8 billion.
• However, its share of global ad spend is declining, from 32.7% in 2019 to 26.9% in 2022.
• The rise of Connected TV (CTV) and Video on Demand (VOD) is shifting ad focus away from traditional linear TV.

Out-of-Home (OOH) Advertising

• Global OOH ad spend is forecasted to exceed prepandemic levels by US$3.0 billion, totaling US$40.6 billion in 2022.
• OOH is expected to grow by 12.8% in 2022, with a 5.5% share of global ad spend, becoming the third largest.
• The recovery of OOH is attributed to digitization of inventory and infrastructure, and the medium is also expected to play a key role in sustainability with green technologies and biodegradable materials.

Print Advertising

• Print ad spend is expected to decline, with a forecast of US$49.8 billion in 2022 (6.8% share of global spend), down from US$70.6 billion in 2019.
• The decline is expected to slow, with a 6.3% share in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.
• Print is still popular in India due to convenience and low cost, and in the US with a resurgence of local media.

Other Media

• Radio is forecasted to grow by 2.0% in 2022.
• Cinema is expected to grow by 23.4%, driven by the return of public gatherings and the release of new films.
• Influencer marketing is gaining relevance, especially for younger demographics, as media becomes more shoppable and interactive.

Key Influencing Factors

• Economic Uncertainty: Despite a 4.5% OECD forecast for global GDP growth, inflation and supply chain issues are expected to affect ad spend.
• Pandemic Impact: The global response to the pandemic, including lockdowns and travel restrictions, will influence the advertising landscape.
• Technological Advancements: The shift to digital measurement, programmatic advertising, and connected commerce is reshaping how brands engage with consumers.
• Political Dynamics: Elections in major regions may impact consumer behavior, investment, and ad spend.

Regional Outlook

Americas

• The US is expected to see 14.0% growth in ad spend, with a 52.8% digital share.
• Midterm elections may influence ad spend dynamics, particularly in Q3 and Q4.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)

• EMEA is forecasted to grow by 5.9% in 2022, with 52.6% digital share.
• France and Sweden are among the regions with notable activity due to elections and regulatory changes.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

• APAC is expected to grow by 5.9% in 2022, with 61.1% digital share.
• India and Russia are forecasted to be among the fastest-growing markets with 14.6% and 11.2% growth respectively.

Future Outlook and Recommendations

• Hybrid models (combining SVOD and AVOD) are becoming more prevalent as brands seek to balance reach and cost.
• In-game advertising and the metaverse are emerging as new frontiers for brands to experiment with.
• Trust in brands is increasingly important, especially as consumers become more cautious about data privacy and digital engagement.
• Advertisers are advised to focus on data-driven planning, measure performance effectively, and adapt to changing consumer behaviors.

Conclusion

The advertising industry in 2022 is marked by digital dominance, fragmentation of viewership, and a shift in media consumption habits. While linear media is still relevant in many regions, the rise of CTV and VOD is changing the dynamics of TV advertising. The economic and political landscape remains a key driver of ad spend, and sustainability is becoming an integral part of the media strategy. Brands that adapt to these trends and leverage innovation and data will be best positioned to succeed in the evolving advertising ecosystem.