2022-07-06-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Review_Q2_2022_24页_9mb

Australian Residential Market Summary (Q2 2022)

Core Content

The Australian residential market in Q2 2022 showed a mixed performance, with smaller cities and regional areas outperforming major capital cities. While property prices in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne saw declines, smaller cities such as Brisbane, Hobart, and Adelaide recorded strong price growth. The market also experienced a reduction in the number of days properties remained on the market, alongside sustained sales volume and rental growth.

Main Points

• Price Growth:

  • The Australian residential market saw a 15.8% annual price growth in March 2022, outperforming the global average of 10.2%.
  • Brisbane had the strongest annual price growth at 28.4%, followed by Hobart (26.0%) and Adelaide (25.1%).
  • Melbourne and Sydney experienced lower growth, at 9.2% and 16.1%, respectively.
  • Regional areas also showed strong performance, with 23.7% annual growth for houses and 19.5% for apartments.

• Sales Volume:

  • Overall sales volume across Australia dropped by 33.1% in the March 2022 quarter to 114,555 properties, but remained 19.1% higher than the previous year.
  • Melbourne had the highest annual sales volume growth at 34%, while Hobart saw the lowest average days on market for houses at 31 days.

• Rental Market:

  • The residential rental vacancy rate across Australia stood at 2.5%, below the global average.
  • Brisbane, Hobart, and Adelaide had vacancy rates as low as 0.4% to 0.9%, indicating strong demand.
  • Weekly rents rose above the national average, with Hobart and Darwin leading in rental growth at 7.1% and 16.3%, respectively.
  • Darwin had the highest gross rental yield at 5.70%, while Regional Tasmania had the highest average gross rental yield for houses at 4.71%.

• Economic and Policy Factors:

  • The official cash rate increased by 50 bps to 0.85%, and mortgage rates rose significantly, potentially affecting market sentiment.
  • Population growth in regional areas was higher than in major cities, with inner regional areas growing by 1.1% and outer regional areas by 0.2%.
  • Economic growth in Australia was 3.3% in the year to March 2022, with major cities like Sydney and Melbourne showing lower growth.

• Market Outlook:

  • Knight Frank Research forecasts a 1% growth in mainstream residential values by the end of 2022, but 3% price declines in 2023.
  • By 2024, the market is expected to trend back towards positive growth due to the chronic undersupply of new properties.
  • The residential rental vacancy rate is expected to remain low, continuing to support rental demand and prices.

Key Drivers

• Digital Nomads and Relocation:
  • Smaller cities and regional areas attracted digital nomads and first-time buyers due to their affordability and lifestyle appeal.
• Investor Activity:
  • Investors returned to smaller cities for higher rental yields, which were more attractive than in major cities.
• Retirement Planning:
  • Holiday homes were increasingly purchased as part of retirement strategies.
• Construction Challenges:
  • Inflated construction costs, skills shortages, and limited developer funding have reduced new supply, potentially mitigating price declines.
• Monetary Policy:
  • The RBA is expected to continue normalizing monetary conditions, which may dampen market sentiment and property prices over the next 18 months.

Summary Table

Key Statistics

• Australian Annual Population Growth: 0.2%
• Annual Economic Growth: 3.3%
• Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
• Official Cash Rate: 0.85%
• Residential Rental Vacancy Rate: 2.5%
• Median Weekly Rent: $475
• Median Property Value: $951,000
• Annual Capital Growth Forecast: 1% (2022), -3% (2023), 2% (2024)
• Gross Rental Yield: 3.60% (national average), 4.71% (regional houses), 5.70% (Darwin houses)

Regional Highlights

• Regional Queensland: Highest annual growth in house sales volume.
• Regional Tasmania: Lowest average days on market and highest annual house price growth.
• Regional South Australia: Highest average gross rental yield for houses.
• Regional Western Australia: Strongest annual rental house growth.

Major Cities Summary

Conclusion

The Australian residential market in Q2 2022 was characterized by strong performance in smaller cities and regional areas, driven by factors such as affordability, relocation trends, and higher rental yields. Despite challenges like rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, the market is expected to see a moderate recovery in 2024 due to limited new supply and strong demand.