2023-10-02-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q3_2023_5页_1mb
报告摘要
Australian Prime Residential Review - Q3 2023 Summary
Core Content
This report provides a quarterly analysis of the prime residential sales and rental markets in major Australian cities, highlighting trends, performance metrics, and future forecasts.
Main Points
Prime Residential Sales
- Sales Activity Increase: A surge in prestige residential sales in Q2 2023 led to improved price growth for most major Australian cities.
- Price Growth: Australian prime residential prices rose by 1.8% year-on-year in June 2023, outperforming the global average of 1.5%.
- City Performance:
- Perth: Strongest growth at 4.0%, ranking 13th among 46 global cities.
- Melbourne: 2.2% growth, ranked 17th.
- Sydney: 1.7% growth, ranked 18th.
- Gold Coast: 1.5% growth, ranked 21st.
- Brisbane: -1.0% growth, ranked 31st.
- Sales Volume: Prime luxury residential sales volume increased by 43% in Q2 2023, although annual volume declined by 25% to 6,110 sales.
- Days on Market: The average number of days on market for a prime home was 73 days in June 2023, up from 68 days in the previous quarter.
Prime Residential Rents
- Rental Growth: Australian prime residential rents grew by 14.4% year-on-year in June 2023, nearly double the global average of 7.5%.
- City Performance:
- Gold Coast: Highest growth at 18.4%.
- Melbourne: 15.8% growth.
- Brisbane: 14.4% growth.
- Perth: 11.3% growth.
- Sydney: 13.1% growth.
- Vacancy Rate: A historically low rental vacancy rate of 1.5% in June 2023 contributed to the strong rental growth.
- Gross Rental Yield: Prime rental yields averaged 2.95% in June 2023, with the Gold Coast having the highest yield at 4.07%.
Wealth Trends
- HNWI Growth: Australia's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population grew by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2.2 million individuals.
- UHNWI Growth: The ultra-high-net-worth individual (UHNWI) population grew by 2.1% in 2022, reaching 17,456 individuals.
- Projections:
- HNWI population is expected to grow by 71.1% by 2027, surpassing global growth of 56.9%.
- UHNWI population is projected to grow by 40.9% over the next five years, outpacing global growth of 28.5%.
- The share of ultra-wealthy individuals outside the four major cities is expected to rise from 32.7% to 37.2% by 2027.
Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth: Australia's economy grew by 2.1% in June 2023, with a forecast of 1.8% in 2023, 1.3% in 2024, and 2.9% in 2025.
- Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 9.7% in the year to June 2023, with a forecast of 2.8% growth in 2023 and 4.8% by 2025.
- Business Conditions: The NAB business conditions index fell by 7.5 points to +6.5 in June 2023, close to half the level from a year earlier.
- Company Profits: Company profits grew by 19.3% in 2022, but are expected to decline by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.3% in 2025.
- New Private Investment: New private business investment grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023, higher than the previous quarter and the same period in 2022.
Lending Environment
- Cash Rate: The official cash rate remained at 4.10% as of September 5, 2023, with a forecast of a reduction to an average of 4.07% by the end of 2024.
- Mortgage Rates: Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 5 bps to 6.32% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan. For investors, rates increased to 6.50% and 9.10%, respectively.
Key Forecasts
Prime Residential Price Forecast
| City | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023-2025f AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Prime | 16% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 5% |
| Melbourne Prime | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Brisbane Prime | 11% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Perth Prime | 10% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Gold Coast Prime | 17% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Australia | 12% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
Prime Residential Rental Forecast
| City | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023-2025f AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Prime | 7% | 7% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 12% |
| Melbourne Prime | 0% | 9% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
| Brisbane Prime | 5% | 12% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
| Perth Prime | 10% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
| Gold Coast Prime | 14% | 19% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 15% |
| Australia | 7% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 12% |
Definitions
- Prime (Luxury) Residential Property: Defined as the top 5% of each market by value.
- HNWI (High-Net-Worth Individual): Individuals with net worth over US$1 million, including their primary residence.
- UHNWI (Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individual): Individuals with net worth over US$30 million, including their primary residence.
- Currency: All figures in AUD unless stated otherwise.
Contact Information
-
Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659 -
Residential Site Sales: Justin Bond
Email: justin.bond@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +617 3246 8872 -
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845 -
Residential: Erin van Tuil
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6699 -
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 700 -
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 62
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