2022-12-18-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Review_Q4_2022_24页_10mb

Australian Residential Market Summary (Q4 2022)

Core Content

The Australian residential market in Q4 2022 was characterized by a combination of economic, demographic, and policy factors that influenced both price trends and market activity. Key trends include:

• Full Employment and Inflation: Australia experienced full employment for most of the second half of 2022, while inflation rose sharply, reaching levels comparable to the early 1980s. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the official cash rate to 3.10% by December 2022, with further increases expected to 3.54% by the end of 2023.
• Mortgage Rates: Mortgage lending rates increased significantly, with owner occupier variable loans rising to 6.77% and fixed-term loans to 6.05%. For investors, rates rose to 7.35% for variable loans and 6.01% for fixed-term loans.
• Market Activity: Sales volume across major cities and regional areas declined, with the exception of Greater Perth, Greater Adelaide, Regional Queensland, and Regional Western Australia. The average days on market for homes increased, indicating a slowdown in transaction activity.
• Rental Market: Rents increased by 13.3% annually, with vacancy rates falling to 1.7%, the lowest since 2008. Rental yields remained relatively stable, averaging 3.71% nationally.
• Population and Economic Growth: The national population grew by 0.2% to 25.7 million, with major cities experiencing negative growth and inner regional areas showing positive growth. The national economy grew at 5.9% in September 2022, with a forecast of 1.7% for 2023.
• Investor Behavior: Investor activity declined in 2022 after a brief return in 2021, with those still active influencing price trends in smaller cities and regional areas.

Mainstream Residential Market Performance

• Sales Volume: Mainstream residential sales volume fell by 22.5% in the September 2022 quarter, with annual sales volume down 10.2%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market increased to 65 days, up from 60 days in the previous quarter.
• Price Growth: Residential property values rose 1.5% annually but fell 3.8% in the last quarter. Australia ranked 47th in the Knight Frank Global House Price Index.
• Regional Variations:
  • Adelaide: Strongest price growth at 21.3% annually.
  • Brisbane: Strongest rental growth at 19.6% annually.
  • Perth: Highest annual growth in house sales volume.
  • Hobart: Lowest average days on market for houses.
  • Regional Tasmania: Strongest annual house price growth in regional areas.
  • Regional Western Australia: Highest annual growth in house sales volume and strongest rental growth in regional areas.
  • Regional South Australia: Highest average gross rental yield in regional areas.

Apartments Performance

• Sales Volume: Annual sales volume for apartments fell by 12.7%, with the September 2022 quarter seeing a 24.6% decline.
• Days on Market: Average days on market for apartments increased to 72 days, up from 69 days in the previous quarter.
• Price Growth: Median apartment values fell 2.0% annually, with some cities showing stronger performance.
• Rental Growth: Apartment rents increased by 13.4% annually, with Darwin recording the highest annual rental growth.
• Gross Rental Yield: Apartment gross rental yields averaged 3.71% nationally, with Darwin at 7.20% and Brisbane at 5.30%.

Houses Performance

• Sales Volume: Annual sales volume for houses fell by 9.3%, with the September 2022 quarter seeing a 21.8% decline.
• Days on Market: Average days on market for houses increased to 62 days, up from 57 days in the previous quarter.
• Price Growth: Median house values rose 2.3% annually but fell 4.0% in the last quarter.
• Rental Growth: House rents increased by 13.0% annually, with Brisbane recording the strongest rental growth.
• Gross Rental Yield: House gross rental yields averaged 3.53% nationally, with Darwin at 5.70% and Regional Tasmania at 4.35%.

Outlook

• Price Decline: Knight Frank Research forecasts a 7% decline in mainstream residential values by the end of 2023, with a potential 5% growth by 2024.
• Rental Market: Rental demand is expected to remain strong due to returning skilled migration and a chronic undersupply of rental homes.
• Investor Activity: While investor activity declined in 2022, those still active are influencing price trends in smaller cities and regional areas.

Summary of Key Drivers

• Population Growth:
  • Major cities: -0.1% annually.
  • Inner regional areas: 1.1% annually.
  • Outer regional areas: 0.2% annually.
• Economic Growth:
  • National: 5.9% in September 2022, forecast to 1.7% in 2023.
  • Regional NSW: 3.3% in 2021, forecast to 3.2% in 2022.
  • Greater Melbourne: 3.8% in 2021, forecast to 5.2% in 2022.
• Unemployment Rate:
  • National: 3.5% in September 2022.
  • Regional NSW: 3.3% in September 2022.
  • Greater Melbourne: 3.5% in September 2022.
• Loan Commitments:
  • New household loan commitments fell by 15.0% in the September 2022 quarter.
  • First home buyer commitments declined in most states, with the lowest in NSW and highest in Queensland.
• Building Approvals:
  • National: 1.5% increase in the September 2022 quarter.
  • Regional NSW: 23.7% increase in dwelling approvals.
  • Greater Sydney: 6.6% increase in house approvals, 47.6% increase in apartment approvals.

Summary of Key Statistics

• Official Cash Rate: 3.10% in December 2022, forecast to 3.54% by end of 2023.
• Residential Rental Vacancy: 1.7% nationally in September 2022.
• Median Residential Value: $907,500 nationally in September 2022.
• Median Weekly Rent: $510 nationally in September 2022.
• Annual Population Growth: 0.2% nationally.
• Annual Economic Growth: 5.9% in September 2022.
• Annual Unemployment Rate: 3.5% nationally.

Conclusion

The Australian residential market in Q4 2022 showed signs of cooling, with declining sales volume and price growth, particularly in major cities. However, regional areas and smaller cities experienced more resilience, driven by lower vacancy rates, stronger rental growth, and better relative value. The ongoing high inflation, rising mortgage rates, and the return of skilled migration are expected to continue shaping the market in the coming years.