2019年保险业展望（英文版）_40页_4mb

2019 Insurance Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2019 Insurance Outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of the insurance industry's performance in 2018 and its outlook for 2019. It highlights both the positive momentum and the challenges that lie ahead, with a focus on technology, talent, product development, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and regulatory trends. The report emphasizes the need for insurers to adapt quickly to evolving economic and societal conditions to maintain competitiveness and growth.

Main Points

1. Industry Performance in 2018

• Property and Casualty (P&C) Sector:

  • US P&C carriers experienced strong growth, with net premiums written increasing by 12.7% in the first half of 2018.
  • Underwriting results improved dramatically, with a 300% turnaround from a $3.7B loss in 2017 to a $6.7B gain.
  • Combined ratio improved from 100.8 to 96.4.
  • Net investment income grew by 12.2%, and net income more than doubled to over $34B.
  • Consolidated capital and surplus rose by 6.5% to $772B.

• Life and Annuity (L&A) Sector:

  • L&A insurers faced challenges in 2018, with virtually no growth in premiums and a 12% decline in net income.
  • However, there are positive signs for annuities, with forecasted growth of 5-10% in 2018 and an additional 5% in 2019.
  • Rising interest rates and increased disposable income are key drivers for annuity growth.

2. Economic Outlook for 2020

• There are concerns about a potential economic slowdown or recession by 2020, driven by trade tensions, fading tax cuts, and a flattening yield curve.
• Insurers are advised to focus on improving operational efficiency, leveraging technology, and enhancing customer experience to maintain growth momentum.

3. Technology Trends

• Cloud Computing:

  • Cloud is becoming a central part of insurers' technology strategies.
  • The majority of insurers are already using cloud solutions, and the trend is expected to continue with more core systems moving to the cloud.
  • Cloud offers speed, flexibility, and scalability, which are critical for handling large data volumes and integrating new technologies like AI and IoT.
  • Key considerations for C-suite include developing a multiyear cloud strategy, identifying applications for migration, and adapting security policies for cloud environments.

• Blockchain:

  • Insurers are moving from exploration to real-world applications.
  • Examples include AIA Hong Kong's blockchain-enabled bancassurance platform and AXA's flight-delay insurance using smart contracts.
  • Consortiums are forming to share costs and enable cross-industry collaboration.
  • While significant implementation growth may not happen in 2019, it could set the stage for wider adoption in 2020.

4. Talent Trends

• The insurance industry is facing a tight labor market, with high demand for tech, data science, and actuarial talent.
• Insurers must adapt to automation and retrain employees to focus on higher-value tasks.
• The open talent economy, including contingent workers and freelancers, is becoming more prominent.
• Strategies should include developing future-ready leaders, aligning with new workforce models, and retaining experienced Baby Boomers through cross-mentoring.

5. Product Development Trends

• Insurers are under pressure to innovate and offer more flexible, personalized policies.
• The rise of the sharing and gig economies is driving demand for customizable and on-demand coverage.
• IoT and InsurTech are enabling real-time, consumer-activated insurance.
• Examples include Trov's on-demand insurance for single items and Bought by Many's niche product offerings.
• Challenges include high implementation costs, consumer demand, and compliance issues.

6. M&A Trends

• M&A activity in 2018 was marked by two major deals: AIG's $5.5B acquisition of Validus and AXA's $15.3B purchase of XL Group.
• Smaller transactions continued but were not as impactful.
• While M&A activity may slow due to high valuations, the industry is expected to see potential growth in 2019, driven by market pressures and capital availability.
• Rising interest rates may act as a double-edged sword, increasing debt costs but also improving investment returns.

7. Regulatory and Cyber Trends

• Regulatory focus is shifting from solvency to market conduct, emphasizing transparency and fair practices.
• Cyber risk regulations are expanding globally, requiring insurers to enhance their cybersecurity measures.
• Privacy rules are placing greater scrutiny on insurers, especially with data being stored in cloud environments.

8. Tax Reform

• Early results of tax reform have been positive for insurers, but long-term impacts remain uncertain.
• The potential for a bipartisan bill (Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act) could boost annuity sales by encouraging 401(k) distributions into guaranteed lifetime income streams.

Key Questions for Insurers

• Technology: Is your organization ready to move core business capabilities into the cloud? Are you developing cloud-native solutions and leveraging advanced analytics?
• Talent: Are you adapting to the open talent economy and developing leaders for a digital workforce? How are you retraining and retaining employees?
• Product Development: Are you considering hybrid or new product lines to meet changing consumer demands? How are you aligning with InsurTechs to modernize your offerings?
• M&A: Are you prepared for potential M&A activity in 2019? How will you balance cost and value in deal-making?
• Regulation: Are you adapting your security policies to address the risks associated with cloud migration and data privacy?

Conclusion

The insurance industry in 2019 is at a crossroads, with strong performance in 2018 but ongoing challenges that require strategic adaptation. Insurers must embrace technological innovation, restructure talent strategies, and enhance product flexibility to remain competitive. M&A and regulatory changes will also play a significant role in shaping the industry's future. The key to success lies in proactive transformation and a commitment to evolving with the digital and economic landscape.