2019年保险业展望英文版_40页_4mb

2019 Insurance Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2019 Insurance Outlook highlights the evolving landscape of the insurance industry, emphasizing the interplay between economic growth, technological innovation, and regulatory changes. It outlines both the current performance of insurers and the challenges and opportunities they face in the coming year. The report is structured around key areas including technology, talent, product development, mergers and acquisitions, and regulatory trends.

Main Points

Economic Conditions

• Positive Outlook for 2018: Sustained economic growth, rising interest rates, and higher investment income have boosted insurer results in 2018.
• US P&C Growth: US property and casualty (P&C) premiums written increased by 12.7% in the first half of 2018, with a significant improvement in underwriting results and a combined ratio of 96.4.
• Life Insurance Challenges: The US life and annuity (L&A) sector has not performed as well as P&C, with a 12% decline in net income for the first half of 2018. However, annuity sales are expected to rise between 5 and 10% in 2018.
• Recession Outlook: Concerns about a potential recession by 2020 are rising, with a 30–40% chance of recession by late 2020, due to factors like trade disputes and a flattening yield curve.

Technology Trends

• Cloud Adoption: Over 70% of insurers use cloud computing, and the trend is expected to continue as they seek speed, flexibility, and scalability. More core systems are moving to the cloud, with 26% of US insurers having fully deployed claims systems in the cloud by 2018.
• Blockchain Applications: The industry is moving from concept to real-world use, with examples like AIA Hong Kong's bancassurance platform and AXA's flight-delay insurance. Blockchain could reshape insurance operations in 2020.
• Cloud Strategy: Insurers should develop a multiyear cloud strategy, focusing on phased migration, leveraging cloud for better analytics, and adapting security policies to cloud environments.

Talent Trends

• Workforce Shifts: The insurance industry faces a tight labor market and is expected to shift toward more flexible and virtual workforces.
• Automation Impact: Automation and AI are changing job roles, requiring retraining and repurposing of employees. Actuaries, underwriters, and claims adjusters may focus more on strategic tasks.
• Talent Strategy: Insurers should consider developing leaders for the digital era, aligning with the open talent economy, and creating a culture that supports both new and experienced employees.

Product Development Trends

• Innovation Pressure: Insurers must innovate to meet changing consumer expectations, particularly in personalization and flexibility.
• IoT and InsurTech: The use of IoT and InsurTech is enabling more dynamic and customizable products. Examples include real-time coverage from Trov and "pay as you ride" insurance.
• Challenges with IoT: Implementation costs, consumer demand, and compliance issues are major barriers for IoT-based products.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Trends

• Mixed Signals: Despite two large acquisitions in 2018, M&A activity in the first half of 2018 saw a decline in deal numbers and value compared to the previous year.
• Potential for Growth: Improved global economies, interest rates, and capital availability may lead to increased M&A in 2019, though high valuations could slow activity.
• Deal Value: The average deal value in the P&C sector increased significantly, reaching $3.1 billion in the first half of 2018.

Key Information

• US P&C Growth: Premiums written grew 4.6% in 2017 and 12.7% in 2018, with net income more than doubling to over $34 billion.
• Global P&C Growth: Advanced markets saw 1.9% premium growth in 2018, while developing markets saw 6.1% growth, down from 9.8% in 2016.
• L&A Sector: Net income declined by 12% in the first half of 2018, but annuity sales are forecast to rise.
• Cloud Migration: 26% of US insurers had fully cloud-deployed claims systems in 2018, with more expected in the coming years.
• Blockchain: Real-world applications are emerging, with potential for broader adoption in 2020.
• Talent Strategy: Insurers need to adapt to the open talent economy, including more use of freelancers, part-time workers, and automation.
• Product Innovation: Hybrid coverages and real-time, on-demand insurance are becoming more common, driven by consumer demand for customization and convenience.
• M&A Outlook: While 2018 saw a drop in deal numbers, the potential for increased M&A in 2019 remains, with a focus on strategic acquisitions and partnerships.

Summary of Key Questions for C-Suite

• Cloud Strategy: Is your organization developing a multiyear, phased cloud migration plan? Have you started planning and upgrading processes for cloud adoption?
• Talent Adaptation: Are you analyzing the need for new skill sets in the face of automation? Are you preparing for a more flexible and virtual workforce?
• Product Development: Are you considering hybrid coverage options and real-time, consumer-activated insurance? Are you exploring partnerships with InsurTech to accelerate product innovation?
• M&A Readiness: Are you prepared for potential M&A activity in 2019? How will you balance cost considerations with growth opportunities?

Conclusion

The insurance industry is at a crossroads in 2019, with the potential for growth driven by economic conditions and technological advancements, but also facing significant challenges in talent, product innovation, and regulatory compliance. Insurers must be agile and prepared to adapt to these changes to remain competitive and resilient in the evolving market.