2022-12-23-瑞士信贷集团-Asahi_Group-Pessimism_largely_priced_in_16页_1mb

Asahi Group Holdings (2502.T) Equity Research Summary

Key Findings & Target Price

• Target Price Adjustment: Reduced FY12/23 target price from ¥5,600 to ¥5,200 (potential 24% return), but reiterated “Outperform” rating. The adjustment reflects yen appreciation and lower profit forecasts.
• Pessimism Priced In: While short-term concerns (raw material costs, domestic consumer spending) persist, the outlook for FY12/24 remains positive due to potential raw material price easing.

Business Segment Analysis

• Japan: Domestic beer business faces volume declines, but Super Dry/drinks show growth. Profit margins pressured by raw materials and stagnant sales.
• Europe & Australia: Premium shift and price increases in overseas businesses offset yen headwinds. Europe cautious due to market conditions, Australia steady growth expected.
• Sales Forecast: FY12/23 revenue and profit slightly lower than prior estimates, but adjusted for FX.

Financial Forecasts

• Profit Forecast: FY12/23 business profit estimated ¥250.3bn (+4% YoY). Japan sees low-single-digit growth (prices), Europe slight decline (FX-neutral).
• Valuation: Target EV/EBITDA 10.6x for FY12/23 (vs historical average). Current multiple is 1SD above pre-Ukraine crisis levels.

Key Risks

1. Raw Material Costs: Unexpected rise or slow cost-passing to customers.
2. Domestic Spending: Accelerated consumer spending cuts.

Catalysts

• Positive: Guidance confirmation, FY12/22/23 results showing confidence.
• Neutral: Global beer sector valuation dynamics.

Scenario Analysis

• Blue Sky (Optimistic): Super Dry growth, Europe/East Asia pricing power, high valuation (EV/EBITDA 11.5x).
• Grey Sky (Pessimistic): Domestic softness, recession, low valuation (EV/EBITDA 8.9x).

For detailed reports, see attachenda/disclosures. Contact analysts for further details.